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Just as well we have existing patents, new patents on a new device coming out and 20x better sensitivity than the competition. Could be a few court battles and payments to Ondo or a buyout at a high price if someone else wants to replicate the patent.. i guess one day there will be pirate versions but by that time there will be millions of leakbots installed and we will be on leakbot mark III

Latest media we have is this Stock box interview with Ondo chief executive Craig Foster 11th November

https://youtu.be/uGTB4onUdkk?si=9t4kvdLwQzxoO1sD

If you make an account and log in, full Q&A text available here (from 1st august)

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/companies/ondo-insurtech-plc

Full year report and presentation

https://youtu.be/-lt_EPZrpfQ?si=bLbIsfAvLtb1PLmD

Stock discussion with well known portfolio manager Gervais Williams. Worth listening from 23m:20s from 23rd october

https://youtu.be/9RqF0YPcxaE?si=28KHj0QPQC6KR5p2

Interm results and latest run rate figures expected first week of December which will also include announcement on new all weather leakbot model now patented and being tested.

If you happen to be a HNW individual, maybe contact Dowgate who will have done the exact estimates you are asking.

"For institutional investors: Email research@dowgate.co.uk to register for an account.

Eligibility: Access is restricted to UK persons who are authorized under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and professional customers; the research is not for retail customers. "

Where do you get pre market prices from? Yahoo showing 132, webull showing 116/150 ask/bid

Annulised recurring revenue looks like it is up around 140% and will be even larger annulised from today due to the US seeing the fastest deployment and highest gross margin. $$$

What does a profitable company seing their recurring revenue grow by over 100% look like? Nvidia would be a good example of this...

So regarding a suite of products, I say no.. We only need two, and the second is about to be announced;

"Ondo have also made some important advances on a new product: LeakBot AC (All Climate). Following successful alpha testing, our All-Climate solution is now being trialled across Australia with new patents filed. We believe this new version of LeakBot represents a potential breakthrough in hot-climate territories, with applicability well beyond the current Australian test region."

Regarding the profit and loss, I believe there was an unexpected £500k worth of inventory due to a UK or Scandinavian insurer not taking delivery of leakbots on time. This may skew your figures

Regarding Ting, their ROI for insurers ;

"Ting’s Medium case ROI is 44.6%, vs 188% referenced for leakbot in today’s release. I’ve seen ROIs calculated in different ways, so the like for like figure for leakbot might ‘only’ be 88%, but even that’s obviously very impressive compared to Ting’s"

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FySdO1o4ySWNJJxap8VLl1B3S9l2cbts/view?usp=drivesdk

Finally, you may be disappointed in the roll out but I think k we have a number of outstanding orders to fulfill which could spike the deployed unit numbers very near term. Also, the annulised recurring g revemue figure from.the FY results (end of march 2025) is up at 100%. Mental that 100% recurring revenue and we are complaining about the slownrate of growth!!

"$2.4m of claims saved in USA at 188% ROI for Insurance partners"

"Recurring revenue, rose 80% to £2.5 million. (FY24: £1.4 million) Annualised contracted recurring revenue reached £5.9 million by year-end"

Profitable sometime in early 2026*

Craig even talks about this innthe latest stockbox

1min50 https://youtu.be/uGTB4onUdkk?si=3EodcYkGJFvDGS36

"We have had to be very careful and tactical about how we have expanded that (plumber) network"

Https://ibb.co/bRPMwk5M

https://ibb.co/VYHCFMJZ

Leakbot is 20x more sensitive than the competition

Ongoing revenue from March 24 to march 25 was up 80% but gross margin fell from 27% to 3.1%. Why? Because Ondo are using their cash reserves to scale out the plumbing service and grow into new states.

If we suddenly took on 200k customers, we would see a negative gross margin for the next 12 months and need to do a capital raise. 200k extra customers across 24 states would mean zero profits and say 40 extra plumbers. Each plumber has to cost £100k a year (wages, van, tax, pension, admin). That would be a cost of £4m to Ondo. An accelerated roll out at the pace you are suggesting can't be done until we are profitable sometime in early 2025 then we can start to put our foot on the gas.

Lawrence's, isnt the bloompoint analysis from late 2023/early 2024 before insurers started paying for 10,000 batches of leakbots upfront?

"Ondo generates revenue from 2 sources: LeakBot unit sales and ongoing servicing of the units. Each unit sale can generate £20-30 of revenue, while ongoing servicing generates approximately £1.50-£1.75 per month. Pricing varies by geography and partner and going forward in America, Ondo's strategy is to offer a$5/month bundled fee including purchase and service."

In H2 of last year Ondo were in the process of expanding from 4 states to 24 states hence spike in growth. I am fully expecting deployed units to exceed 6k per month in the december interm results latest leakbot count. See my post earlier where Dowgate research state that only 70% of posted leakbots become registered customers. This suggests that the actual number being manufactired is over 10k a montb. Ondo are busy working with insurers on improving this number as anything below 70% success/deployment rate and a small insurer is likely to not want to go beyond the initial pilot stage for some time until they can prove the real world returns. Otherwise losing 30% of leakbots in the post is quite a hit for the insurer and a big loss for Ondo's year 2 recurring revenue.

Dont forget the share price was over 45p in 2024 so to be so much further forward and on the verge of profitability IMO makes this a strong buy. If this was listed in the USA we could be at £200m market cap already. Ironic really as the US will soon be the largest market. Near term take over target maybe?

Let me write it another way

March 21 12k new units

March 22 18k new units

March 23 30k new units

March 24 25k new units

March 25 55k new units

March 26 on track for 70k new units

How is that not accelerating? We have expanded into the US and we have installed probably 30 plumbers into the US with regional managers. The faster we expand the less profit we make in the year we expand due to upfront Opex costs. I would say we are doing just fine.

Potentially 70% yoy growth, want to know what that looks like compounded?

314k sep 26

534k sep 27

908k sep 28 ($36m recurring revenue)

1.54m sep 29

2.62m sep 30

4.46m sep 31 ($178m recurring revenue)

Here is the data from 2020 for installed devices

Mar-20 ~10,000

Sep-20 ~15,000

Mar-21 ~22,000 (120% yoy growth)

Aug-21 ~30,000

Mar-22 ~40,000 (122% yoy growth)

Aug-22 ~50,000

Mar-23 69,793 (74.4% yoy growth)

Sep-23 ~80,000

Mar-24 95,000 (36% yoy growth)

Jul-24 111,000

Mar-25 150,000 (57.9% yoy growth)

Sep-25 185,000 (66% yoy growth)

From Dowgate research report today;

leakbot delivered strong claims savings in year one, allowing IFB to pass savings on in the form of discounted premiums. “This is of course extremely encouraging; we expect this combination of strong RoI, along with very positive customer feedback will drive further rollouts across the US insurance industry, both locally and nationally. Once an insurance partner has been secured, pilots are being converted into major deployments, confirming our long term view that LeakBots will become a standard element of US home insurance.”

Further : “IFB is a mid-sized regional insurer and the total 20k devices will cover c.15% of its entire home insurance book (130k properties). However, these local state insurers are key to Ondo’s backfill strategy. Large state deployments significantly increase the density of devices so that engineers are more efficient; spending less time travelling between homes and making more visits per day. These are significant orders; Ondo’s standard US business model is a $5 monthly subscription with the first year prepaid, which more than covers its working capital outlay for production and shipping. An 10k unit order would deliver a $0.6m cash prepayment and the targeted 70% instalment rate would add $0.4m to ARR.”

Some stats on plumbers

We are in 24 states right now

Question 45 in the recent investor meets company Q&A;

What's the broad relationship between the number of customers and the number of plumbers required to service those customers? For example, one plumber for 5,000 households?

This dependant on the Year 1 / Year 2 + splits which impacts job frequency roughly it is between 3 - 5k of devices in year 1 , Year 2 onwards it is more like 8-10k in a state.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/full-year-results-240

Indiana Farm expand their leakbot order to a second 10,000 leakbots following successful initial 10 000 trial

"

**

Jeff McDonald, Senior Vice President of Property and Casualty at IFB said : "I'm proud of the proactive approach we're taking with LeakBot to help protect our clients' homes and minimize costly water damage.  The outstanding results, including strong claims savings and exceptional customer satisfaction, demonstrate the value this innovative program provides. Expanding the deployment of LeakBot devices allows us to offer even greater peace of mind to more Indiana homeowners."

From 6 states to 24 states in a year. The USA pay 2x or 3x the recurring revemue of anywhere else in the world. They have now employed the plumbers amd are scaling up.

If we were doing 4k a month last year and 6k a month this year but the majority of that is now in the USA where the recurring revenue is 3x more, it makes a huge difference to next years revenue/profitability.

One insurer rolled out to 10% of their customers.

You cant compare the pace of Ondo's rollout to Ting as Ting dont have the plumbers service included

Craig talks about deployment strategy at 28min20

There was an extended segment in the end of year results covering rollout and targeted advertising then further questions answered on this topic of you navigate to the investor meets comapany website, Ondo full year results and Q&A

https://youtu.be/-lt_EPZrpfQ?si=3iHExBiVnwoZJlnW

I am sure in the last video interview from last week, Craig invited investors to get their questions ready for the interm results in december so I am sure you will have the chance to raise your concerns directly.

Whether they over achieve or under achieve previous forecasts, the fact remains that installed lakbots and recurring revenue is exceeding 50% every year which is verging on Nvidia style growth

LawrenceHut, from the AGM announcement on 22nd september;

"Since the start of the current financial year we have shipped 38,000 devices to US homes which represents 80% of our global shipments and growth of over 6x year on year growth."

The fact that the number of installed leakbots does not match the number of shipped leakbots suggests either, insurers are stockpiling leakbots or, households are being sent the leakbots but not installing them.

"we have shipped 38,000 devices to US homes which represents 80% of our global shipments "

This statement suggests that 38k shipped to the US was 80% of global shipments meaning that global shipments were 47,500 from the end of march to 22nd september

31st march to 22nd September = 170 days and 38,000 newly installed US leakbots with 47,500 new leakbots globally

Total leakbots installed at this time was 185k

Lets assume the roll-out rate stays the same,

185k + 47,500 = 232k installed leakbots by the end of the FY

£3m cash from warrants

Around 130k existing leakbots generating recurring revenue at a very high profit margin

About 90k new leakbots installed paid for in advance by the insurance companies

The main cost then is year 1 plumber costs

Ondo are forecasting Ebitda break even by end of march, not Ebitda positive. But with warrant cash and existing cash reserves, Ondo don't need to raise any further funds and will comfortably turn Ebitda positive in FY 26/27.

Their strategy of introducing new insurers and rolling out into states they already have plumbers employed is a good way to improve margins (existing plumbers can service more customers per day over their patch without sitting idle or spending all day travelling cross-state)

I think you are a little too high on your £12m recurring revenue fee. The majority of the current installed devices are still in Europe where the subscription fee is lower than in the USA. The $5 to $6 a month subscription fee being paid in the US is a premium and why all efforts are being focused on that market which is seeing deployment accelerate the fastest. £5m recurring revenue is likely more realistic