The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
The PDF with RNS's divided into projects for you (again). Credit to Kev w on telegram thanks mate.
https://mobidrive.com/sharelink/p/3rOAlTRnizcTnUp3YCawr250ZJ66urtJOAKFmlLvgXjg
This is all from memory and im no geologist.
If you read the RNS's (i sent a link yesterday to a PDF with all RNS's devided into projects)
Yes they have done test work on the material to design and build the phase one plant.
They have also surely done further testing which confirms the ore is almost 100% acid leachable otherwise how would they know?
No we don't have those official metalurgy results as we are awaiting the CPR report, have mentioned this about 5 times now.
I sent a link over the weekend with the RNS shows you all the steps for the stage 1 plant. They crush, mill and grade into a higher grade output.
The original miners were selling 20 to 40% material so it's definitely possible (phase 1)
We know the surface ore is oxides and deeper down we think its sulphides. We know there is gold and other metal byproducts.
A quick Google will tell you that oxides (the easy to access high grade surface material they will originally target to get the 25% sellable DSO concentrate or whatever) is a low capex easy process to upgrade. Especially when your average grades are (I'm assuming here) well over 2.5% as they target the obvious high grade zones first.
-I don't know the cost of the capex for phase 2
-There was a delay and changes to the plant design around November so there is maybe a slight modification to the flowsheet based on the developing metalurgy/mine plan
-i don't know the names of the minerals or what processing they require
-the initial plant from the photos looks like there are tables maybe wash tables/separation tables of some type so maybe grinding and removing the soluables/mud is enough to get 25% concentrate. Water plus ore gives concentrate right?
Jason has told me that tonnage figures have been released but didn't have time to look them out for me.
Now you know as much as me and I would really appreciate if you started doing your own research and maybe coming back with some useful info and not pet names and cheek please. Sound reasonable enough? OK cool, looking forward to your positive contribution now I won't be replying again.
From Jason the CEO on Friday when I asked him:
"Kinusi was to be a DSO concentrate. But we’ve asked Jana to look at the processing more - she was the ex-GM from Copper 360 in South Africa where they were producing copper cathode and she drove a lot of that.
So I’m due to get feedback from her at the end of next week and that may change the equation a bit.
The copper there at Kinusi is almost 100% acid soluble and as such exceptionally well suited to extraction SXEW to produce such a cathode.
We will update more once we get Jana’s comments and recommendations."
The model has been very successful for Q global so I guess when a plant costs less than $2m and the locals have been selling 20% to 40% copper containing Ore for many years, and the geologists can see where they have mined, and what is still to mine, and their lab results confirm high grades on a 1km by 300m strike.
Am i being totally stupid here? There's a high probability of a very fast ROI meanwhile the experts are drilling and air surveying the prospect for phase 2 ramp up.
Spades in the ground now and the total exploration and initial production budget will be repaid quickly from 25% Ore which they have already bulk sampled and tested can be done.
The wider $2b or $10b or $500m or whatever value is semantics. All exploration and perdition is already paid for and will start generating cash.
DSO so all they need is likely power, water and a few operators plus excavators. Stage one is hardly rocket science and costs a few million.
But they didn't do a pfs and a dfs taking 3 years costing $15m!!
But they haven't done 10,000m drill.campaign costing $10m
But they haven't designed a $50m plant based on the DFS results!
But they haven't done an acid Leach copper plant before so it's high risk! They must not be experts!
Let's wait for the CPR report shall we
I quoted the geo experts assumption that there is a 50MT exploration target.
I then made an in-situ assumption based on the geo experts estimate of 2.5% average grade which was found by taking samples at the mine shafts, along the out crop at surface then at the lower grade edges. They took trench bulk samples and came up with 2.5%.
I calculated $2b using 10MT not 50MT to be conemservative. And used tofays copper price. That's how in-situ figures are made. Yes they usually use JORC data but my data is potentially only 20% of the actual in-situ value.
Conservative numbers, estimates, with the working and sources all supposed.
Do you need me to come round to your house with a pencil and do the calculation for you?
100% back of the cig packet based on 40km by 7km and up to 6km deep keel and every hole of the first 64 hole drills have ending in 5% or grater Titanium mineralisation. That makes the ore body 100's of billions in size. Just depends what metalurgy returns on what they can produce as a sellable titanium product.
**********
In reply to your post to me this morning:
Andii darling, I know resource definition drilling aka truth machine work may be an alien concept to you, but generally to put some rough economics on a project you need to drill it out, find the edges /depth of the system, understand the shape of the ore body, the controls on mineralization, grade distribution, continuity of grade etc etc. Then you get independent experts to do all the block modelling etc to give your resource estimate. Now I know you can magically do all this in your head without the need for drill rigs, but it's just fantasy mate, imho!
Don't call me darling mate. No right. Can we continue this on EEE? I Will post my reply there.
Marula however, here's a path to $100m revenue a year from the Lithium
https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1764622083844161980?t=_kof1UO8lZM_14VbGRRsnA&s=19
here is another one for you rainsalot
p/e valuation
if marula can get to a position in the next few months where they are projected to make £40m profit in the following 12 months, and lithium prices continue to rise.
do we see a favourable p/e ratio?
10x£40m would be £400m market cap
20x£40m would be £800m market cap
fully diluted 400m shares, £800mk is £2/share
*****' talked about marula being 20 to 30x undervalued at 10p
EEE in situ value is literally trillions. The debate is whether it is 2 or 200. Happy to meet you on their board if you want to reopen that discussion.
Back to Marula,
See my list
◦ Updated presentation will be released and will include numbers on both Blesberg and Kinusi - operating/mining processing/admin and revenue streams and margins
This info is outstanding but we are told will be forthcoming as part of news released after the 8th of March EGM and I suspect once they have listed on the nairobi and johnnesburg stock exchanges.
Jason talks about the frustration of wanting to get the figures released in this youtube I linked below, buy you don't watch promotional videos? If so it's hard for me to feed you all the info when it's all in the videos.
https://youtu.be/AQZCprmVBB8?si=B09tzIjPW_-7029E
Updated Potential 2024 Q1 RNSs (04032024]
✅ something else 1 = Collins Aseto - Head of Exploration in East Africa
✅ something else 2 = 60% ownership of producing Manganese mine
✅ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen additional licences payment agreement
✅Exercise of warrants (unlikely but potentially)
❌ Director / PDMR transactions (unlikely due to closed period)
◦ Updated presentation will be released and will include numbers on both Blesberg and Kinusi - operating/mining processing/admin and revenue streams and margins
◦ Kinusi modular plant completion, transportation, installation and commissioning (February)
◦ Kinusi Phase 2 drill plan/commencement
◦ Kinusi commencement of copper concentrate production
◦ Offtake agreement Copper
◦ Competent Persons Report
◦ Offtake agreement Lithium
◦ Blesberg phase 1 results / JORC statement
◦ Blesberg production initial flow/production stats - (revenue figure?)
◦ Blesberg Airborne survey results
◦ Blesberg Satellite survey results
◦ Tomra COM XRT 1200 ore sorter arrival at Blesberg (January)
◦ Blesberg non Lithium arrangements
◦ Korridor update
✅ EGM - takeover waiver / other updates
✅ Board addition
◦ Listing update NSE
◦ Listing update JSE
◦ Listing update LSE
◦ New Auditors and expanded finance team
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 1 staged share payment
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 1 results
◦ Nyorinyori and NyoriGreen phase 2 exploration activities updates
◦ Zimbabwe Lithium
◦ Kenya Copper
◦ Kenya Lithium
◦ Kenya Manganese
◦ Nickel project
◦ Bagamoyo update
◦ Bagamoyo phase 1 staged share payment
◦ Bagamoyo expansion?
◦ 2023 Q4 report
◦ Community engagement updates
◦ More Exercise of warrants (unlikely but potentially)
◦ Indaba information / news
◦ Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance update?
◦ Research / Brokers note
🆕 Further Executive Management growth
🆕 and something else 3 & 4 🫣
Not expected in Q1 2024 but noteworthy
◦ Annual Report up to 31/12/2023 (probably Q2)
◦ Offtake agreement Graphite (guess Q2)
◦ 2024 Q1 report potentially including revenue update
DISCLAIMER - All of the above is a personal view and not company endorsed
Here is a point in time when they were aiming for $90m revenue from just 1500t
https://twitter.com/MarulaPlc/status/1706239087991005348?t=YIR7oBfD4WmV92jVLZ1Tsw&s=19
Don't forget, this is a premium dry product (DSO) which will likely command a premium to standard concentrate prices.
NSE listing
Jason said to give him a hard time if it wasn't done by 1st week in March
https://youtu.be/AQZCprmVBB8?si=B09tzIjPW_-7029E
7:51 "hodd me to that guys"
Marula mining market cap.is under £20m and you want to compare them to the largest lithium mine in Australia?
BTW that monster has just had to reduce production because they sre losing money
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/greenbushes-to-reduce-production-in-lithium-downturn-igo/103402668
It's called portable modules and means the plant was built off site and delivered and comissioned in a weekend.
See the overhead site layout from Google from a year ago.
https://www.google.com/maps/@-28.9822422,17.7303674,1692m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e4?entry=ttu
Last bit of equipment to be delivered in a few weeks as per my 10am post this morning.
sensor based Tomra COM XRT 1200 ore sorter
https://ibb.co/mz3cpBc
What does having the control room in a shipping container have to do with anything?
Production costs are some of the lowest in the industry. Whats cheaper? Foundation's, concrete and a building or a shipping container that can be moved closer to the mine face as the asset is mined.
Come on now!