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We know, well at least strongly suspect, Marlborough Nano Cap Growth P Acc sold out in July, this can be guessed by that huge trade of 1,661,167, you will be able to see that that Nano cap growth fund had a holding ending in 661,167. But during that time period there were plenty of huge trades seemingly big holder to big holder. Way more than the Nano cap growth fund's net holding.
What if there bigger brother the Micro cap fund has also been selling, the link below shows that they have sold 250k as of the end of June. While it is possible that they have only sold that relatively small amount, it could have been an indicator that they have been selling more because the link below is always a few months behind... Added to this is that we have yet to see a TR-1, while there are two funds on the link below they are ultimately owned by Canaccord Genuity, they clearly sold some, but we have yet to see a TR-1, has this not been released because they have been continually selling?
On Friday we had a volume of over 2 Million, we were up 10%, but we also quite clearly had something like 750k - 1 million sold. There are very few holders with the ammunition to do this. It has to have been someone with a major holding.
I also wonder who has been buying, we had all those very chunky trades in July that were not just PI's buying. We also had huge buying on Friday, possibly another insto coming on board just waiting for the price to bottom out.
I still cannot rack my head around why anyone would be selling now.
But I remember thinking the same thing last year. Both of these funds were in greatland gold last year, they sold at about 10p, this is despite it being blindly obvious that GGP was going to be included in the GDXJ, where the fund (GDXJ) had to buy huge quantities of stock a couple of weeks later, during which they could have sold their entire holding in one trade at a significantly higher price (~25p). My point being they are perhaps not a sophisticated as they seem to be.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/lnd/ownership
There is the link, its out of date so its looking into the past. For example its highly likely that the Nano cap sold in July, but they are still on there as its only updated to July
Of course, it is all speculation until proven otherwise and it does not mean they are selling the entire holding etc..
One has to hope value wins out. In times like this it cant be send enough. The assets are incredibly undervalued.
Read the Cenkos broker note again, yes I know they are the house broker etc. But its all based off standard practices, 64p.
Gaps of 4.5 weeks, 3 weeks and 8 weeks (minus 2 for xmas, and a clear delay) . Not saying this is going to happen. But very quick turnaround times cannot be ruled out based on past data - which should be the best way of telling.
Final assays RNS 12-JAN 2017 ---- MRE released 17-FEB 2017
Final assays RNS 17-JUL 2018 ---- MRE released 7-AUG 2018
Final assays RNS 24-OCT 2018 ---- MRE released 8-JAN 2019 (with an interluding RNS essentially saying there was a delay 2 weeks before Christmas)
If you look at the past turn around times, MRE may be close than I think the market realizes and end of October may be a possibility.
Also its easy to see when Bill gets REALLY excited. The RNS title goes full caps-lock on, this is the level of excitement we cap look forward to:
MAIDEN MINERAL RESOURCE ESTIMATE AND REPORT
Absolutely Richyf3,
There are some very frustrated holders in here, time will tell if they act on basic things like PR and the website. They should be doing this anyway, its basic stuff. But on the 22nd July at the Proactive 1 to 1 - Glenn Featherby explicitly stated that there will be a new PR marketing campaign in the coming weeks. So far they has been two obvious opportunities for a bit of PR - conclusion of drilling RNS and the higher grade than average under the East Pit RNS. But there was nothing. Not even a a quote from the CEO. Always going to frustrate shareholders.
That said, if existing shareholders even those who have been in here for years were offered the chance to buy into Landore today for the first time given what they know (i.e. the incredible assets, but less than incredible PR and slow moving nature side of things) , I suspect they would absolutely bite your hand off. Its an incredible deal right now. Just look around you can either get into Wishbone with a market cap of 19 million, who have literally nothing, no gold, not even started drilling or Landore at £25 million.... come one there is only one winner. It astonishing when you think of it.
The market is missing Landore at these levels. If the SP was 35p - i think we could still be having the same conversations, its that undervalued.
Come on Landore - get the PR going - starting with interview with released 8am coinciding with release of next assay results. Help your long suffering shareholders.
The final set of assays due in 'late-September' were accompanied with simultaneous release of an all singing all dancing interview from BH hailing the largest drilling campaign in recent times, how successful it has been and how he cannot wait for the MRE to come through. This is before talking about the prospects of the Felix drilling in October, indicating how large the campaign is and whether it is targeting gold or the battery metals and hinting at potential enormity of the Junior Lake metal deposits if they continue to hit a further couple of kilometres out from the existing deposit.
Then in the following ~6 week gap before the MRE is released perhaps a couple of presentations and further interviews on a few different platforms to maximise the audience (i.e. not just proactive) to really build up the interest ahead of the MRE and maybe even first Felix drill results. I guess kind of the like the marketing campaign Glenn Featherby promised.
Wouldn't it be nice.....You know to behave like a normal AIM company in advance of the arguably the most pivotal news release in the company's history. Like a company that wants to boost the share price for its long suffering investors. Like a company that wants to boost the share price to give it the strongest hand going forward, either to negotiate a sale at a fair price or minimise future dilution for its share holders if they decide to go for another monster drilling campaign.
Is this unreasonable, or some form of pipe dream. Can shareholders push for this to happen?
If there really was a large seller continuing, we would have seen more notifications of major holdings.
It's shareholder sentiment:
a) Stating the MRE was due in Q3 (which must have been a poor mistake), to change to Q4 two weeks later.
b) Committing to a marketing campaign, to deliver an improved website, more interviews and presentations in the 'coming weeks' - only for 8 weeks late to only have 1 TMS article and the same old understated RNS without even a comment from the CEO. In low volume stocks such as LND it obvious that if the company says its going to do something, then does not to it, it will get punished.
I think the Cenkos note is reasonable, everything they have used is standard and its all based of the cube MRE report. That is what the company is worth at the moment, it will increase when the new MRE is out. It just needs the sentiment to get there and unfortunately, at the moment the sentiment is about as far away as it could be. The company could help this if actually did their promised promotion. Literally if an interview came out right now with BH just stating 'i like cheese', we would go up 10%. Its kind of silly when you think about it, but the AIM is not logical.
And before the company comes says that its 'patchy market conditions' - here is the performance of a few gold companies since the proactive presentation 8 weeks ago.
GGP +5%
ECR +15%
CORA +44%
WSBN + 11%
LND -21%
Market conditions have been positive - alot of this is LND continued lack of promotion.
Yep- hats off UR - you were spot on with the MRE and proven further your ability to translate LND RNS to English. Why they put Q3 down i have no idea.
The lack of marketing, now 7 weeks on from the promise and a couple RNS's is quite frankly rubbish. If your not going to do it, dont say it. There was an article in TMS (A very good article) but that is not the dedicated marketing campaign promised. We were explicitly promised more interviews and more presentations.
And don't get me started on the website which was also promised to be updated. What is the first thing prospective investors would look at when researching a company - the company website of course. Its an absolute shocker.
Punished today by investors selling in protest of lack of PR again IMO.
I know you know this already UR, but the last RNS stated:
'Landore has engaged Cube Consulting of Perth Western Australia to complete a Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") and Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") update on the BAM Gold Deposit scheduled for completion in Q3 2021.'
In the previous 4 drilling update RNS (that's as far back as i have checked), it stated:
'At the conclusion of the Drilling Programme the Company plans to commission an updated Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") and Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") on the BAM Gold Deposit.'
So in the most recent RNS there has been a definite change, providing an exact date. Why would they state this if it is going to be significantly later? This would not make any sense. Presumably they have had some confirmation that this is when it is going to be ready.
I personally have no idea a) how long it takes to write up an MRE report and b) how much you can get along with without having the last few holes. It may be a case that you can do alot of the leg work before receiving the final few holes.
Don't get me wrong I know where your coming from, it could seem odd that they are receiving the final assays back in mid-September to then have the MRE 2 weeks later. But personally I am still expecting end of this month, because that is what it says in the RNS.
That's a really nice article , spot on.
'And as noted above, Landore’s laconic communications style tends if anything to underplay the company’s progress. That reticence, somewhat refreshing given the notorious tendency of natural resource small caps to overstate'
Tell me about it, but when your the quietest in the room sometimes you never get heard , there is a balance.
That said, I still prefer value instead of over-hyped nonsense (I could think of several on the AIM) any day of the week!
Indeed, really hope September is our month.
It seems there is a general expectation that miners in general may have bottomed out and that September should be a good month.
On top of this, specific to Landore, it seems like we can look forward to 2 sets of assay results and the MRE. Been disappointed with SP action here before, but there is no way we are still at 26p come the end of this month, all miners rise in anticipation of the MRE, lets see.
Lets hope the company play to the market and do a bit of PR in advance and during this news rich period.
Exactly Michu, if the CEO can't even be bothered to comment on the conclusion of the biggest drilling campaign in the company's history, why should investors buy more shares.
Im am not sure if you are part of other online landore groups, but I know there has been a barrage of complaints towards the company and at least one respected shareholder has managed to speak to a member of board directly.
Still think this will come good mind you. Asset value will eventually win out.
https://twitter.com/keya5000/status/1429703552465768448
Makes sense that - 50% resource upgrade is not to be sniffed at.
Indeed - grades are typical BAM - they are not exciting, but they have built the foundation of a 1 million oz resource already that is highly economical because it is so relatively cheap to mine.
Drilling ended early because of the fires, but we completed 21,700 m out of 23,000 m so 95% - so all is good.
But what is nice to see, is that presumably because drilling ended a couple weeks early, the MRE has been brought forward a couple weeks as well. Was previously mid-October, now Q3 - so September. So really the news we all want has not been delayed, its been brought forward!
Although, it does utterly frustrate me that they don't spell those two points out in the RNS. Saying 'although drilling was cut short a couple of weeks, but the MRE has been brought forward would do wonders for sentiment'
Anyway hopefully the market has recognized this, it seems that way so far with us being flat so far. Usually we are about 10% down now after results.
All they do is use tried and trusted methods of valuation. Its fair and reasonable and if anything a little conservative.
Its a fact, Landore have an economically viable asset that is growing and it's currently hugely undervalued. That's pretty much all the broker note says.
Of course its their job to be bullish as a house broker - I would actually argue its quite conservative, with the exclusion of a DCF analysis of the battery metals deposits.
But, for the BAM deposit, its all based of numbers from the resource report and the PEA report - which have been completed by an independent company. All Cenkos do is use those numbers, plug them into a standard model used in all broker notes for mining companies and come out with a number.
Sometimes house brokers can get carried away, particularly with explorers e.g. valuing x amount based on further exploration, even if there is no guarantees of successful exploration + funding in the future. This is absolutely not the case here.
A reminder of the link to the Cenkos broker notes. It is free but you may have to sign up.
Cenkos value the company at 66p - This is before the upgraded MRE in October and does not include the full value of the battery metals. You can also see from their workings that the value of the BAM gold deposit will double when we hit pre-feasibility in Dec/Jan.
https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal#/portal/cenkos-securities
The current SP is 25p. Do the maths.
There was a 1.2 million and 500k buys a couple of weeks ago (assuming that's insto) and there is the Canaccord funds (although one may have sold out the other week) and Eric Sprott. So there has been a few and almost certainly a few more with less than 3%.
Although I do see your wider point, why hasn't big money taken a bigger piece in the Landore pie given its undervalued nature? I personally would say the answer is low liquidity, pretty hard for anyone to come in and take 5% outside placings given the low average volume.
....Looks like an attempt at a bounce at around 25p looking at the trades.
Needs new investors clearly either PI or big money.
Have to admit, if I were a new investor here and did not use internet chat rooms and twitter for sources of information and to provide things to research and instead relied on things like the company website, you would find it hard to invest. The website is a shocker it has a terrible homepage which does not contain useful information, the page on BAM (if you find it) doesn't even have the correct BAM resource on it and is cluttered. On the share section, the shares in issue (and warrants) are horrendously out of date, on one page it says over a billion shares (ie pre-consolidation) the other page it says 92 million. I think we are now actually on 105 million shares.
Ok, perhaps the big money don't rely on company websites for information, but for plenty of investors this is the first port of call - how many have been put off? I think shareholders deserve better on this point.
The point is despite their amazing success previously and to be fair, continued fantastic success in the developing the resource(s) in junior lake, they don't exactly help themselves communicating this success to potential investors.
Saying all this, the fact remains, the disconnect between M/C and asset value is incredible here. We are only a few million in terms of market cap ahead of the likes of ECR, who have no gold resource and no discovery holes. Its astonishing when you think of it. Its happened later than we all thought possible, but this will re-rate to new values sooner rather than later.