Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Come on samval, aint going to work like that. Drilling is due to start any day. The strategic review is still ongoing. Thus in a couple of weeks we will have the scenario where:
Drilling, strategic review and no warrant churn (finally) are occurring simultaneously. This should be very good for the SP with a little well thought PR (banging on about *potential* sale). I think its a pretty easy road to 30p if 24p is cracked. If nothing comes from the strategic review any fundraising will be after the first period of drilling when the SP hopefully has a bit of momentum. Not now, no chance.
So yes, it is possible that they don't get enough warrants and that the company does not sell, and that more money is needed in the future, but this is a medium term issue. Not short term.
Jrt - they have somewhere of the region of 2 million in the bank right now without receiving a penny from any more warrants. More than enough to start some drilling. No chance of fund raise at this ridiculous SP.
No, not every year. e.g. last year depending on dates. June 2021 report to June 2022 report.
The wider point is that they have around £1.7 million in the bank. There are £3.2 million worth warrants that expire on July 14th. They state they expect some of these to be exercised, which they will. Even if they were to get only 500k worth, that is circa £2.2. million in the bank. No way they do a funding in the short-term (weeks to few months) they do some drilling first (which they can afford comfortably) in an attempt to get this up from the ridiculous SP of 20p, which should work given that there will be no warrants to suppress SP.
Maybe if nothing comes from strategic review and we get to December/January then there is a fundraising window under this scenario....If Sprott exercises (certainly not guaranteed), and closer to the entire £3.2 million gets exercised then no funding concerns for 12 months +
Bottom line no fund raise short-term (weeks to months). I do not think that is an overly controversial statement.
Final results 2021: "Shareholders have been very supportive of the Group's financing needs and the Directors are confident of raising further funds as required"
Final results 2020: "Shareholders have been very supportive of the Group's financing needs and the Directors are confident of raising further funds as required"
Final results 2018 "Shareholders have been very supportive of the Group's financing needs and the Directors are confident of raising further funds as required."
Final results 2017: "Shareholders have been very supportive of the Group's financing needs and the Directors are confident of raising further funds as required."
You get the picture......
As you will see Michu, that line is somewhat of a generic line that is copied and pasted in seemingly all final reports. The copied quotes I posted are more closely related to the current situation and i would suggest provide a more accurate reflection of the current situation.
Just thought i would post that... you know... in the interest of balance.
1.7 million in the bank
"The Board anticipates a significant uptake in warrants prior to expiry" - there are 15 million left, sprott has 8.7 million. Code for they expect him the excersie. They did say they tried to make contact.
"
The Board is closely monitoring the cash position and took a strategic decision not to raise funds earlier this year due the likely inflow from the warrants and Lithoquest, whilst also considering the future plans following the appointment of Strand Hanson to carry out the Strategic Review. The Board wish to avoid a scenario whereby the Group has raised more liquid funds than needed, at the expense of shareholder dilution" - categorically no near term fund raise.
Michu - it seems me that you are that end of tether with Landore and I don't blame you give your length of service. But it is also seems that you are becoming overly negative with each passing post. When in fact, significant progress is being made, albeit slowly.
It is obvious that a placing will be needed if it doesn't sell to fund more drilling later in the year, this is the same for all explorers. Difference is here compared to most of the others is money is actually spent on discovering gold - not dust.
It is also likely given the proven prospectovity of junior lake that announced drilling will find more gold in Felix.
Most importantly, it needs repeating.
The company and or assets are up for sale. Even your post pessimistic of views could not see this going to multiples of the current market cap. It could go at anytime.
The assets are of high quality
Producers are cashed up because of the gold price and need to buy more High quality assets or risk going out of business.
Juniour Lake/BAM will be mined one day, and it won't be by Landore.
Read between the lines. No funding issues. No placing (no chance of this anyway during strategic review). Would suggest that they have already had talks with sprott regarding his warrants (~9 million), so probably know what's going on here.
Before someone says it. NO! , this does not mean a) no interest in the company or b) the company is no longer up for sale.
Company has to keep moving forward, message to suitors is buy now or pay more later.
Sums it up nicely I think. Note these guys have a target price of 81p.
http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/landore-resources/landore-resources-strategic-review-canadian-assets/
Catbert - there was not a change to 53p post the RNS yesterday. It is pure misinformation.
The target price of the note released yesterday was the same of the previous note and the note before that....
I have no idea where this comes from, the notes are free to access, please check for yourself.
Cenkos used the extended case of 2019 PEA case to value the gold. The 2022 confirmed the extended case, hence no uplift. The PEA yesterday did not include a large part of the inferred gold because they did not extend the pit design. The gold is still there, just not the formal data to extend the pit.
Cenkos value the gold at 25% of the PEA value, this is very conservative by all accounts. 40 % would be more realistic.
Then there is the rest.
Inferred gold not in PEA - Cenkos do not put a value on this, but clearly worth a decent amount
Exploration potential - Cenkos value this at something stupid like 4 million
Battery metals - despite what BH said in interviews they have always valued this at £20 million.
Mark my words if the SP was 60p today, the target price would be raised by altering some of the numbers above.
Overall, the discount to the PEA is very Conservative. Its nonsense to value the gold not in the PEA and wider exploration potential at near zero. As for battery metals, I have no idea how to value them....
Per oz is a bad metric. All deposits are different.
PEA is a better metric and takeover can go up to 50% (CENKOS value this at 25%) if the company is really convinced on the exploration potential, i think it is a particularly strong case here. The point here is that any suitor has a small profitable mine with a low CAPEX ready to go and then inherits all the exploration potential. The wild card for me is the battery metals - i have no idea how that gets valued in. Certainly worth a decent amount. You can also add the Lamaune Iron/gold into that equation as well.
You can work it many ways, but all point to multiplies.
I think its is completely correct of the company to plan more drilling, they have to in case nothing materializes. But i think its fairly obvious:
Bid = no drilling.
No bid = drilling
We will know before July
Would BH have launched this strategic review without a buyer in mind?
It may have been known that we were going to up for sale in the future, but this is confirmation an advisor has been appointed, which is excellent news!!!
Pretty decent PEA overall - CAPEX has actually fallen by 9%. Operating costs have increased a bit much of which is down to inflation.
The headline figure is also only the 'base case' last time they also did an 'extended case'
Going to be a fantastic opportunity for someone. They will be buying a low CAPEX profitable mine with 'incredible' exploration potential. Not to mention the battery metals...
Doddy - significant gold assays have already been reported in Felix.
They have also already been reported in Lamuane, in fact in patches over a 16 km strike length, along with other precious and battery metals. They is more than enough here.
See for yourself: https://www.landore.com/pdf/Junior-Resource-Exploration.pdf
Bit of a nothing 'filler' RNS. Lithium great, but its field exploration. Maybe something to get excited about if you are a shareholder of a tin pot company with no assets, while we have the market cap of a tin pot company, its hardly going to add any significant value to the proven assets we have elsewhere (Gold, Nickel, Iron).
I still think a sale of the gold has to be the plan and i still expect this will happen. PEA and full report seems to be crucial. PEA gives an indication as to what the deposit is worth, ounces in the ground (MRE) does not do this. Difficult to buy/sell if you do not have an inclination as to how much it is worth. More drilling on BAM gold would not make sense at all post MRE and PEA. A few holes on Felix to further prove the trend could make sense.
No doubt, we have been very unlucky with the weather. Wildfires in the summer and an exceptional winter delaying drilling, no doubt this has set the company back months. I am very sympathetic towards the board on this issue because it gets lost across shareholders who only see delay and think its the boards fault.
But i really do not think it is much to ask for Bill to face the cameras and do an interview........just give some context ... speak positively. The ironic thing is that LND has never been in a better position. Excellent resource. Producers cashed up. Could not ask for better conditions - if he just said this (Even if its repeating what he said before) it would help.
Chaz, blind faith is investing in a company who have not struck and gold or have any assets. You are just hoping they hit.
Investing in a company with proven assets that are worth multiplies of the current market cap is called investing.
The funny thing is those companies under the blind faith category have market caps of only a few million less than ourselves. Remarkable when you think of it.
I don't think anyone would consider funding LND to go into production in its current state. Yes the resource is there and I expect the revised PEA will be very promising as well. But there would be an expectation of a younger and larger board with active experience of turning a deposit into a producing mine.
I think the preferred course from nearly all shareholders is sell up and move on, even if the sale price will not reflect the true potential of junior lake.
The silence is frustrating, but I still maintain that the silence cannot be judged until we know the reason behind the silence, which will be retrospective.
BAM will be a producing mine, very unlikely that LND will mine it, its just a question of when someone takes it and for how much and what terms.
From the mineral resource update RNS in early Feb:
"Drilling will re-commence in early Q2 of 2022 on further delineation of the newly discovered western extension shoot together with commencement of drilling on the highly prospective Felix area along strike and to the west of the BAM
Gold Deposit."
They say different dates, but I would go for the most recent one personally.