Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The interview is a positive for me.
Lets get it out the way - the strategic review has been one big **** up. I think you could almost get that from Bill in the interview. But i think we all already knew this.
But we are now at 14p, the damage has already been done. But there are two big positives ... finally new management are on the way (although there is an element of believe it when i see it) and secondly it seems very likely that they will get a decent cash injection from the lithium sale.
There is no chance of a gold sale in the short-term, but what i think there is every chance of is a SP run to something remotely respectable compared to peers given our assets. We are currently valued like a tin pot explorer with no assets.
Cash injection, new management and perhaps a gold run and hopefully we can at least get back up to 30p or so in early next year.
The guy is a troll... come on.... look at his posting history elsewhere ...
That said I do not overly disagree with the notion of a lack of a plan with the exploration drilling.
I would rate the chances of a full company sale of somewhere between 0 and 5% now. Chances of offloading lithium land package much higher - probably in the likely to very likely range.
But for me its all about if we see board changes. I just don't see how they can continue as they are. I think a bit of cash from Lithium, and new CEO and i think this has every chance of being one of the best performing shares in Q1 next year. Its quite obviously massively undervalued, its just needs the sentiment and that is only coming from one action.....
Stan - How long have you been invested in Landore?
I see when I click on your name there are a number of posts on about 10 different companies. All very negative. It does make me wonder.....
in relation to: "If they dont find anything"... Stan you are aware that landore already have a 1.5 million oz gold deposit
The RNS was not a -15% RNS, but at the same time it was underwhelming.
It all goes back to the key point - what is the plan?
At the moment we are seemingly going for the pot luck approach. Drill a bit in Felix, drill a bit in Lamaune, aim on both sides for the gold and battery metals. Here there and everywhere. Sure it looks good if you strike a discovery hole - but this is always more unlikely than likely with exploration, and is one of the reasons why we should be valued multiples more than exploration companies who have yet to hit (ECR, WSBM, FCM, take your pick).
This drilling would surely have been better spent further proving up our main asset - BAM GOLD - which remains open in all directions. It is quite frankly incredible that we have yet to test the depth of BAM, there is a long history of high grade gold deposits in similar greenstone belts in Canada Red lake, pure gold etc. Surely was the obvious thing to do. Indeed, earlier in the year this was mentioned as the plan along with further infill between BAM east and west pits to reduce CAPEX and improve the economics.
No coherent plan has been laid out, no scrutiny, the man in charge does not engage with shareholders or even entertain the thought of answering valid questions.
The Lithium is separate - multiple kilometers away. Easy to split up.
The gold (BAM) and the Nickel (B47) are only a few 100 m apart, while technically possible, i think its very unlikely that these could be split up. No reason someone cannot mine both.
Not sure the words 13p, encouraging and LND should ever go together.
But this reversal today is very encouraging. Not a fan of chart nonsense, but looks like we are ready for a move upwards. Seems a fair old chance we will have Felix results next week. Lets see.
Michu, I do not think your comments suggesting that LND's assets somehow fit into the category of AIM junk is at all justified.
- There are some with good assets in dodgy locations
- There are many .. many stocks with no proven mineable assets selling themselves as the next big thing, most of whom now have a higher market cap than LND bizarrely
- There are very few with good, proven assets in good locations. Name another stock with greater than 1 Moz gold resource in a good location (N.America or Australia)?
The reason for the market cap here is nothing to do with the assets, its the 'staleness' associated with the company and a terrible investor sentiment towards the board. Entirely self inflicted.
Well lets start with the back-up plan. There is one and its the lithium. We learned from yesterday that there are several companies interested in the Lithium - genuine interest. We could sell that for several million, which incidentally would be about 50% of the market cap. This money could be used to fund a serious drilling campaign - excellent. Why are we waiting to the end of December to sort this out? Do they think the rest of Landore Canada is less likely to sell without this Lithium add on?
What is the main plan? I have no idea. Have companies actually requested an extension? Or has LND just extended the deadline out of hope?
Why are we drilling Lamaune? Surely this could be better spent getting a larger resource on BAM or even Felix (results due soon). Has someone requested that they prove more gold along the trend, or does the board just think this scattergun approach is the way to go?
I do not think it is too much to get this important information from the board.
The actually geology (excellent), resource (excellent), drilling (will find out soon) and finance (not bad) is actually in a very good shape here. Its just the board and more importantly, the sentiment towards the board. Change that - and I think they will this time - this becomes the best buy on AIM IMO at these levels.
Think about it, this is valued like a company who is down to there last £1 million in the bank, has been drilling for a couple of years, but has found no meaningful gold. We have 1.5 Moz and this I hope, will in perceived terms, will be well on the way to 2Moz + after the Felix results.
Biker its a load of nonsense. if they want an extension fine, this happens. But why on earth would market conditions change considerably over the course of what is a few weeks. Makes no sense whatsoever.
This has been handled abysmally. Shocking. Everything from the process, finance and comms. I know for a fact that GF and BH read this board. If you are reading this I hope you understand that sentiment is not going to recover from this. If you really care about shareholders and your own significant share holdings you would resign. Not contemplate it for a few months in true LND style, but in the coming days. BH first and then GF or someone else can stay as acting CEO until replacement is found. You must understand that there is nothing that can be done to improve sentiment here, cracking Felix results will not help.
For what its worth, the BAM asset is still v.good. It will be even better with positive Felix results. Just because nobody wants it now, it does not mean it will not be wanted. A number of reasons factor into this.
£2 mill in bank
1.5 moz gold in ontario
drilling results due
£13 million market cap
The above still remains INSANE value.... but is suspect not much will change until investors have confidence in the board.
Well there we go, no placing any time soon. This was never binary.
Certainly a nice little deal $2 million Canadian for just 1.5% of the 3% royalty, is there an agreement to also sell the other 1.5%? Not clear.
Does not mean anything regarding the outcome of the strategic review , but having cash in the bank is always helps no matter which way they progress. We have the cash, pay a fair price or we drill more.
The other interesting outcome is what happens to the Lithium land package, it is hot property and worth a few to several million. If they were to sell the Lithium land package we could end up in a situation with the company have something like $10 million in the bank.
I personally would be very excited at the prospect of $10 million being spent on Junior Lake, particularly if it coincides with a new energetic CEO. Think we would be on the road to 40 p + pretty quickly in that scenario.
Already posted on here before, but a few have mentioned the grade as a potential issue. I do not think this is the case.
Gold Standard Ventures taken out for C242 million (£150 million) - August 2022 completion (post war etc)
- Measured and indicated resource estimate of 1.8 million gold ounces at 0.74 g/t
- Life-of-mine average all-in sustaining cash cost of approximately US$1,020 per gold ounce
- Total gold production of 1.0 million ounces over an 8-year mine life [1]
- Initial capital of US$190 million
-Nevada
BAM Gold deposit
- 1.5 Moz at 1 g/t (inferred and indicated)
- All in Sustaining cost of $1113
- Total gold production of 833 k ounces of gold over 10 years
- Initial capital of $86 million
- Ontario
Yes Gold Standard Ventures was one step ahead in terms of measures resources (Feasibility study). But to suggest if Landore does not sell this time round it is because of the grade and therefore inferring it will not sell in the future, is quite clearly wrong.
However, It may be that potential suitors would want a more detailed proven pre-feasibility study or a bigger deposit.
Would i accept 50 p if it were offered tomorrow - Yes - I guess I have been a medium term shareholder, i would make alot of money.
Is there any chance of 50p ever being put shareholders - No (outside perhaps of a hostile takeover that are very rare)
Does this mean Bill and Glenn are asking for too much (greater than 50p) - No. They will be looking at something close to £1 because that is what it is worth. Many examples of companies with equivalent assets being taken out for more than this.
How much is royalties - Yes probably $2 million at a guess. Not huge amounts but enough for drilling and no fund raise. Could also looking at selling the Lithium - that would be a few million again at a guess. Key thing in my mind is that they would need some momentum off the back of it. This would require BH to go and someone with energy and communication skills coming in.
Samval - the 3rd option is that the resource is still too small for the big boys (who have most of the cash) . I know BH banged on about perceived 2 Moz (which it clearly is now), but that could turn out to be not strictly true.
Dilution at this level would be difficult to swallow. Dont want to sound like I dressing this up as an acceptable outcome - I'm absolutley not! But even in your extreme example below there would, in theory, still be tremendous and reasonable upside.
2 Moz - sale price ($150 million - $75 per oz) = 75p SP with shares in issues expanded by 50%.
The SP is desperate. But things can and do change fast. A new energetic and vibrant CEO, with a bit of cash in the bank and maybe gold price run, this goes to 30p + quickly IMO.... Key thing of course it obtaining the above ingredients, particularly a new CEO. The sentiment for BH has now completely gone and quite frankly will not be taken seriously.
I am starting to lean towards that the best possible outcome here will be funds coming in from non dilution (e.g. Sale of royalties) and a new CEO. The latter I think is now crucial for the company to move forward.
No question right now would be very difficult to raise for many reasons - it wont happen. Next few years, not so sure about that - all dependent on gold price. Many reasons to think that it is close to bottoming
But there are other avenues to raise funds, which also will be part of the strategic review will target. They have a nice lithium (which is hot right now) project and some royalties that could also be of interest, a few million there and they are good to go for 1 year + . This is the alternative strategy.
Can understand why someone who maybe has bought at 16/17p would be very happy with 30p, but there is a zero percent chance of the board ever putting out an offer close to these levels. zero. I am not saying they will hold out for £1.20 (around the equivalent of the Apollo deal less than 12 months ago), but it would surely have to be around the 70/80p mark for it to be remotely considered - even that would be a bad deal.
Maestro1 - re. Australian gold miners
Appolo consolidated - Australian gold miner - Taken out for $US 135 million earlier this year - their resource 1 Moz at 1.2 g/t - no pre-feasibility
So the same development stage as BAM, very similar resource in terms of size (BAM Is now actually larger), grade and indicated vrs inferred.
Landore may or may not sell, the market suggests it is not this time round. But there is no way they would ever consider anything close to the levels you suggest above.
I do not disagree that in general comms need improvement, but that is another matter.
The actual deadline is today, not yesterday. Theoretically at least, they could still receive a letter of interest of some form of information that may help determine how the company progresses today. So there was always zero chance of any update in September.
I do think some form of update next week is important, even if it is just some form of holding RNS, silence for a couple of weeks would not go down well.