Member Info for AM90

Got kicked out of GDXJ .... massive sell ($165 million) on the way on Friday .... people selling ahead of this.

The amazing thing is because of the recent SP explosion - there may well not be a TR1 ....£22 million buy @ 20 p a share= 110 million shares. I suspect that they may well end up paying more than 20 p a share, which would mean less shares being purchased.

113 million shares = 3% for a TR-1 - not that it really matters.

Must say I agree with pretty much everything TMT states above. People have been front running the GDXJ, there is no question and I think that is responsible for some of the increase in SP.

But equally it does not mean that there will be no SP rise next week. If there is enough buying pressure the SP will go up... And let's face it who would sell this Monday... I think this is where the massive social media presence of GGP really helps...

Regarding the original question about the free float, I am glad I was not be being stupid. Seems a mistery to everyone. We will see if there is any change in this free-float market shares in the next update....

The 0.44% weighting is based on our free-float market map.

The free-float market cap excludes locked-in shares, such as those held by insiders, promoters, and governments, trusts, institutions.

So a couple of other examples in the index De Grey mining have 1.2 billion shares in circulation and free float shares of 944 million. This means that they have a free float of 78%. This would make sense because there is a hefty institutional/company ownership for De Grey (DGO Gold 16.21%; Shaanxi International Trust 4.95%; Kirkland gold 3.55%). Another example highland Gold – they have 370 million shares in circulation and the GDXJ index says they have a free float of 221 million (~60%). Again this is very easy to explain because they have high individual ownership (Vladislav Sviblov %23.95 , Millhouse LLC 10.34% ,Roman Abramovic 10.34%)

https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/highland_gold_mining-stock
https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/de_grey_mining-stock

Now for Greatland we have 3.8 billion shares in circulation, but according to the index only 2.39 billion of those shares are ‘free-float’, hence why our free-float market cap used to get our 0.44% weighting was quite low ($537 million), if we had a higher free-float proportion our weighting would have been higher. This means that we have a free float of only 63% - meaning 37% of our shares are locked in by insiders, governments trusts, institutions or other etc

Some of these ‘locked -in’ shares are easy to explain – Gervaise, CB, Borrelli, Starvest add up to to 268 million shares (7.2%) according to the GGP website. The we also have the likes of Sprott and Prim, but these are small numbers – maybe another 50 million or so.

This means it is very difficult to account for the other 1 billion or so shares, I just found this a bit odd. Does this mean we have a much higher institutional type ownership that we previously thought? Or is this just the hardcore base of long holding PI's? Does anyone understand this?

The fund says we have a free float market share base of 2.4 billion, but we have 3.8 billion shares in circulation. As a result out market cap used in the weightings was only $540 million.

'example of Free-Float Methodology
Suppose that stock ABC is trading at $100 and has 125,000 shares in total. Out of this amount, 25,000 shares are locked-in (meaning that they are held by large institutional investors and company management and are not available for trading). Using the free-float methodology, ABC's market capitalization is 100 x 100,000 (total number of shares available for trading) = $10 million.'

This asks the question who the hell owns the other 'locked in' 1.4 billion shares. Clearly, Gervaise, CB, starvest own a load (268 million according to GGP website) - but what about the other billion or so....

any ideas? have i misinterpreted free-float market cap ?

no you are not that is 2019...

7 additions om q3 2020 dont know names yet...

That is the UK subsidiary - have a look on the link and click on holdings

https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdxj/overview/

The top holding is worth $425 million - https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdxj/holdings/

Its based on free float market cap - we actually have a bigger free float market cap than hochschild.

My guesstimate is a weighting of 0.6% which equals a £30 million buy (150 million shares)

They released one yesterday - but with no target price.

I suspect their excuse of 'we are still working it out' is complete BS. I think they are waiting to see how the SP plays out next week, then will come up with a block caving estimate which conveniently adds x% to where the SP settles. Basically, they dont want to release a target price this week, only for it to be shattered if there is a massive GDXJ SP run...

Hannam note

Matt - The effect on the share price is already happening - with the rise over the past couple of weeks. Buy yes - the first trading hours when it is official will be Monday morning.

Chippy, i think the interims are not directly comparable to the quarterlies.

The quarterlies have a published date, the interims do not. So naturally the quarterlies get much more attention from traders around the world because they are more visible. Indeed, i dont think we went up just before the last interim either. In fact we actually closed higher they day after the interim results were released last time.

TMT - yes my 0.8% may have been slightly optimistic. I used the free-float market cap on the below link, it says its updated daily but it has not changed - so i suspect that is just the value from the last reblance and obviously it has gone up since then. Nevertheless, the concept of the fund being weighted on a free float market cap benefits us.

https://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/hard-asset/mvis-global-junior-gold-miners/specifications

So i revise my guesstimate to 0.6% - please take this with a pinch of salt as i have no experience in ETF fund.

Looking at the live updated daily weightings in the Vaneck fund (second link below), a comparable company could be highland gold mining:

- As of the 8th September VanEcks 11.5 million shares in Highland Gold were worth 0.69% of the fund.
- Highland Gold's market cap is currently £1.07 billion. However, it only has a free float of 57% because there are several large share holders (third link). So its free-float market cap it 0.57*1.07 billion = £600 million.
- Our market cap on the 31st August was ~560 million. But we have a free float of 93%, so our free float market cap is 0.93*560 = 520 million.

https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdxj/holdings/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HIGHLAND-GOLD-MINING-LIMI-4004045/company/

"It seems the GDXJ is prepared to look at potential revenue from projects" - exactly - thats why inclusion is likely.

80% we will be included. On the basis of alot of reading and the recent rise - the market clearly thinks we will be included and the market is normally correct.

The data for GDXJ inclusion was taken on Monday 31st, so any increase in the market cap since Monday 31st will result in less shares being purchased. But yes i agree with TMT that the big wild card is if any of the big guys in the GDXJ get the boot, but also how many other go in and dilute the buy.

Somewhat agree - but i would change:

'In my view the GDXJ spike is already priced in' to 'GDXJ spike is in the process of being priced in'. Still over a week to the announcement.

Same thing but for Rox GOLD:

1,330,900
1,000,200
456,600
1,437,900
1,503,900
886,700
24,346,500 ---- VanEck Friday fun!
683,800
4,582,200
2,971,700
1,402,400
2,346,600
1,334,700
692,500
1,115,400
1,567,200
1,652,400
2,455,900
1,877,400

Yes, i don't know how they will buy it. In the below video they guy states that they do the re weighting in the closing auctions on the friday. But i think this must be different to an addition - cant surely have 100 mill + auction request but who knows, so i guess it would be an all day job. But as TMT says, could well spill over to Monday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpDa0y3FV1g

I have also been trying to find examples, but it is difficult because only West African resources were added in Q2 and there was some odd goings on there..... and in Q1 it was the absolute height of Covid chaos.

But going back to Q3 2019 - here is the volume for Gold Road resources, bottom is September 1st, top is September 30th. Look at the 95 million volume day - that is the Friday VanEck buy - sticks out like a saw thumb! Indeed, over the past 12 months it is the highest volume day by far!

5,748,894
6,964,836
5,373,554
6,804,177
4,892,785
5,452,639
6,178,290
95,271,292 ------------- HERE
10,187,013
8,226,985
11,729,390
14,580,863
8,124,479
6,197,697
4,525,053
7,395,630
10,214,839
6,692,832
4,734,051
6,337,726
3,347,906
5,593,20

I have been trying to find examples of past inclusions

Friday 11th close of markets USA time.