Member Info for AM90

Way more than anyone guessed! $$

Somewhat -
It's based on how our market cap has performed relative the combined market cap of all others in the index.

Our last weighting was taken from a SP of approximated 14p, this weighting was taken on the 30th November when our SP was 27p.

This is a near 100% increase in SP and market cap, is miles better than the average for GDXJ, which is actually down about 15-20%

This increases our weighting substantially, I estimate our rebalanced weighting which will be released on Friday night will be around 1.2%. Its tricky to calculate so don't take my word for it. Not least because we don't know many other companies will be put in the index, or taken out.

The buy amount is again tricky. Because most others in the index have lost value our weighting in the VanEck has gone up from about 0.66% to 0.9%. This also account for our recent increase in our SP. So the buy will be the difference between the weighting announced on Friday night and our live weighting in the VanEck fund.

Even a few days out it is tricky to calculate. If the US stimulus is announced and POG sky rockets then it will likely increase the buy because others in the index will more more sensitive to this than ourselves. Likewise if we have a stonking MRE and our SP rockets to 40p, there will be a substantially reduced buy. Its all about how we perform relative to everyone else, a 10% swing either way can equate to around $5 million or so...

But based on todays figures I estimate a buy of $15 - 20 million. Again I may be wrong, so don't take my word for it... And this figure changes daily....

Here is some additional snippets to the table that was shared around the telegram group early this week regarding GDX inclusion. I still cant work out the original source to the note but the discussion on the link seems to link it to RBC?

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/deg-to-be-included-in-gdx.5777651/

You may need to be a hotcopper member to see the figure

'For GDX, we highlight the potential inclusion of Greatland Gold and De Grey Mining, both which were added to the GDXJ in Q3/20 and meet the GDX requirements, although the latter has a lower float relative to existing GDX constituents. These could be similar to K92 mining, which was subsequently added to the GDX in Q3/20 following addition to the GDXJ in Q1/20. '

I still think it is unlikely this quarter, but clearly there is a small chance. Even if it does not happen this quarter i would say that there is a high change it will happen in the next 12 months.

For reference I think a GDX initial buy would be circa $100 million. (Much larger than the original GDXJ buy)

The note also highlight the potential deletion of Kinross form the GDXJ which would give us a little boost. Our SP fireworks have probably reduced the GDXJ buy a little because the value of our existing shares have increased by about 20% since the data cut off on the 30th November. But still looking at a $15-25 million but from GDXJ next week (guestimate).

No - announced 11th. VanEck will buy 18th.

No new real information is expected with the AGM - they cannot disclose anything - its illegal.

The key things to watch out for the wording on some of the key areas and in response to the questions.

That is a nice explanation Daveri007 and it is important everyone remembers this when digesting any resource estimate.

This figure may also help: https://ibb.co/swNJHMg - this first estimate is only a small portion of the whole of Havieron.

It also important to consider our broker estimates of 3.75 Moz (Berenberg) and 4.2 Moz (Hannam), whilst we may not agree with their valuation methodologies (particularly for Berenberg who don't factor in any real upside for the other zones of mineralization or taking the mine to production) - there is no fundamental reason why their resource estimates would be seriously wrong. All they have done (at least for Hannam - haven't seen full Berenberg report) is taken the strike numbers directly from the Newcrest RNS and applied some basic assumptions. So a resource estimate of somewhere around 4 Moz is expected. This is very important to remember.

Hopefully the brokers have been a little conservative with their assumptions and I think there has been a bit of expansion of the depth of the SW crescent since the broker estimates. If this is the case then maybe we will get a higher resource estimate (maybe 5 or 6 Moz ).

We do not produce gold yet - so it is entirely down to discretion. We will be in the GDX at some point in the next year or so, but this December is unlikely - but there is a small chance.

If we did get in it would be a ~$100 million buy - which would be mental.

Think that table is part of a goldman sachs report - not 100% on that - but the people in the know certainly think its possible.

But this is far from guaranteed and is more likely it will NOT happen in December!!! You have to be a miner to get into the GDX - but there is discretion for those who have yet to produce.

This is the link to the methodology https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/data/NYSE_Arca_Gold_Miners_Index_Methodology.pdf

No not possible Spratt - GDXJ is simply weighted on free float market cap so is different to the Sprott (Solactive index) wizardry.

They are just following the rules of the index - its not based on research or fundamentals.

They weight their index on momentum - this is complicated and i dont understand the equations. Maybe someone else can work it out.

But you can think of it like this, we entered the index at about 4%, because we did so well we ended up being 10%, on the rebalance they just sold enough to take us back down to 4%.

JDT - not sure I quite agree with the workings there. The best way to guesstimate it is to look at the VanEck live daily holdings - which get updated daily but are usually a few days behind.

As of Friday 27th we are at stock value of $43,316,771 - which is 0.77% of the VanEck GDXJ fund.

The next MVIS rebalance (which vaneck replicate) is based on yesterdays SP close and is calculated by weighting free float market cap. The best way to estimate our new weighting is to look at others in the live daily documents with a similar free float market cap to ourselves.

IAMGOLD - current stock value of $65,072,532 and weighting of 1.16%

IAMGOLD's free float market cap is 1.2 billion USD

GGP free float market cap is 1.25 billon USD (assuming free float of 90% - hopefully they get this correct this time! I think they got there in the end last time thanks to Hydro+Jerry's work - but MVIS did never update their spreadsheet)

Thus we have a similar live free float market cap to IAMGOLD - who have performed similar to the overall GDXJ since the last rebalance (Down 20%)

Thus GGP's weighting can be expected to increase to around 1.16% - similar to IAMGOLD which is a $20 million Buy.

Of course the other caveat is that this does not take into account any additions or deletions from the index in this upcoming rebalance - you can probably add +/- 10% for this (i.e weighting of 1.05 - 1.25%).

It also does not take into account any changes in the size of the ETF in the next couple of weeks - or any further changes in our SP. This will not effect our weighting in the MVIS index - but will change the amount of the buy.

Also this is based of SP Data on the 27th - we had quite a bit of movement yesterday so that will change things a little as well.

All in all it is difficult not to see a large buy.

Well it has worked out perfectly for them hasn't it! buy in at 10P (which at the time was a massive hike in SP, think it went from 8 - 10 p in a day or something) at then sell at an all time high - not bad.

Well they are going to be buying a load, our recent SP hike, combined with the majority of other miners going down over the past month or so has really turbo charged our weighting - should be looking at a $20 million buy +.... No idea what it will do to the SP - what is your argument for both ways?

But don't take my word for it, I thought MSCI was going to be a null event - turned out to be a 100 million share buy!

Yes think it was yesterday, been following their rebalance, GGP weighting went from 10% on Friday to 4% on Monday. I think the sell just got absorbed into the wider massive buying in the closing auction yesterday.

Sprott dumped a load in yesterdays chaos - it was their rebalance day and we have gone from 10% to 4%. This is nothing to do with any analysis of the company it just them following the ETF rules. We originally went in at about 4% in May because our SP is up 200% since then it resulted in us having a very large weighting, they have just corrected that this rebalance. Unlike GDXJ the way they calculate their index is true wizardry it involves complex stuff like momentum weighting.

Dont know exactly how many they sold but it will be on Morning Star soon.

Have a look at the portfolio in this funs ...... cant see them not getting a bit of the GGP pie at some point in the future....and they buy big...

https://www.vaneck.com/mutual-fund/gold/inivx/portfolio-analytics/

There has been big buys - but there has been plenty of sellers.

No conspiracies. No games. Just sellers, whilst the big boys get in on the cheap.

That is the micro cap index which we have been in for a while, on the 30th November we will be promoted to the small cap index.

Orders of magnitudes more of money will track the small cap index compared to the micro index. But because there are a lot more larger companies in the small cap index our weighting will be proportionally lower - for the UK index a comparison to companies already in the index i would guess our weighting will be about 0.2%.... For the global index its a bit harder to guess, but it will be lower.

GGP's weighting in the MSCI small cap index will be much lower than 2.27%, it will be something like 0.2% for the UK index and lower for the global index.

Are you looking at the LSE algorithm? If so it cannot be trusted for anything. It just puts anything below the mid point as a sell and anything above as a buy. This is useless as it is quite often not the case, nothing can be gained from it. Bottle Rocket (GGP Help) has a much better algorithm and has shown how bad the LSE one is.

The amount GDXJ have to buy will be determined by our share price on the 30th November - which is getting quite close now.

Front running has probably already started for the next GDXJ purchase, where big funds buy in to sell to VanEck at a profit.

For info this is a rough estimate of what VanEck will have to buy, the exact buy cannot be determined until they release the rebalance data:

SP 0.20p = would take us to 0.75% (+0.1% BUY $ 6 million)
SP 0.23p = would take us to 0.9% (+0.25% BUY $ 15 million)
SP 0.28p = would take us to 1.03% (+0.37% BUY $ 22 million)

But obviously the more these front runners buy on the cheap, the less of an effect the VanEck buy will have on the SP.