Berenberg v Hannam26 Feb 2021 12:05
As far as I am aware (have not seen full note), Berenberg base their valuation on a peer comparison to other Aussie mid-tier companies, estimate that we have 12.5 Moz and then apply a 50% risk rating = 33p?
Hannam have done a Discount Cash Flow model based on the SW crescent sulphides zone only? They then lay out a clear pathway to future block caving and estimate some potential production numbers, as far as i can tell this block caving is not included in the SP target because the numbers are too uncertain at this stage. This is somewhat understandable, but I think the general excitement regarding Havieron is this potential for block caving, this already is a substantial upside not factored in the estimate.
For the DCM they only focus on the SW crescent zone which will be mined by selective open pit mining. There is also the potential for the NW crescent zone to mined using this method as well, but they do not include this due to a lack of drill data.
I am happy with both SP targets, they are similar but appear to use very different methods. But make no mistake, there is still huge potential upside using either method.
More drilling = more gold = higher SP - fortunately Newcrest are currently undertaking another 65,000 m of drilling.