Member Info for alto1

i was being generous if it's worked out on this basis you would need a 80% premium. Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.3%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 1.4%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:EVRH
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 1.4%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 8.6%
Software Unlevered Beta S&P Global 0.69
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.688 (1 + (1- 19%) (0%)) 0.688
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.4% + (0.8 * 8.6%) 8.28%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:EVRH using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for EVR Holdings is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

AIM:EVRH DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) -11.70 -5.60 11.60 12.40 13.26
Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 6.92% Est @ 6.92%
Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.28%) -10.81 -4.78 9.14 9.02 8.91
Present value of next 5 years cash flows £11.49
AIM:EVRH DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= £13.26 × (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (8.28% – 1.4%) £195.39
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= £195.39 ÷ (1 + 8.28%)5 £131.27
AIM:EVRH Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= £11.49 + £131.27 £142.76
Equity Value per Share
(GBP) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= £142.76 / 1,308.20 £0.11
AIM:EVRH Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (GBP) From above. £0.11
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.05
= -1 x (£0.05 - £0.11) / £0.11 54.5%

optimist59 this is standard it's called a gagging order. i will explain.so you have a bottom of the pecking order aim company that is in bed with the big boys and they are mostly on nasdaq. so you cant have the minnow giving anything away otherwise this might give you inside information on big boys that start trading at 2.30 gmt. if they all started trading at same time i am sure they could say more a typical example is nanoco it's annoying but i totally get it .as for keeping sp down not sure of the benefit of that.it's just sad they took it up to 18p and then dumped it and some on here probably got caught near the top. i am lucky because i hedged with a short position at 15p so i have locked in my profit i will buy shorts back at 0450p as i believe this could be bottom but who knows.

it's not really this is aim it gets pumped up hooks you on the line then hay presto you are holding the bags simple. and retail investors get caught all the time the good news is evr wont be around for long it will get swallowed up soon maybe at a price of 20p. so this is great for savvy investors that did not get pulled into the hype. the down side you will miss out on potential gains this company would of gone on to make but those in at 4.5-5p wont care.

as mbu pointed out shorts are reducing. i don't pay to much mind to them unless it's a big move as i am sure they had the heads up before sfo investigation.and this maybe misled optimism but i think oil could start to recover in 2019 and this will be because trump took the piss out of opec giving out waivers to big importers of iran oil. they was only supposed to be given to country's that would have been hurt by sanctions so opec will want to even the score.plus i think the the yanks are starting to wake up to the fact that trump could be a wolf in sheep clothing. i personally think he's more like clyde. for those to young he stared in every which way but loose. sorry trump but you have made a dent in my trading account with your market manipulation tweets so you deserve it.

yes i agree i have just closed my shorts as i feel pfc seems to have a bit of resistance at this sp. and i am feeling that oil could start to recover but that could be just wishful think

so Santa did have a bears pulling him along this Xmas.

sooner or later oil sector stocks will stop dancing to the tune of oil prices and about now seems to be that time bullet to the head statement i know. but i always think it's easy to manipulate pfc because of oil prices but at some point it comes down to not giving you free money in pfc.

this is more like a game of wack a mole.

brainer you sound like from your posts you just want pfc to down. i take you have short positions. but i doubt very much fed will increase they are not stupid they no the damage this could do. i think we are looking at a sit on the fence approach

yes did think of fed but also took into account that opec cuts wont really take effect for a couple of months. that said i am not brave enough to short oil that is what i would normally do to hedge against pfc.but this market is poison at the moment and longs don't seem to be fairing to well.that said i think pfc will reward us well 2019 as long as all the doom and gloom is just a stage for the bears to play.

i tend to agree and fed up with getting shafted by oil. so have took some profit and hedged against my remaining long positions with short positions because i do see this getting dragged down but 440-445p seems to have a bit of a floor so that will be my exit for shorts all in my own opinion of course.

just as i thought market liked update oil drags us down crazy to think this was trading at £10 when oil was $35.

found it 10.2 bill not to shoddy.

seems ok no fireworks could not see backlog of works in there witch would be nice if it stands at 10-12 bill. maybe it's on there website problem is oil is down so if this is taken as a positive update oil will dampen it.

insiders have been buying into trading update. we have been selling assets to get debt down all good. shorts are adding are they scaring you yes they are? do they want your share's cheap yes for those with a nervous disposition it's easy buy back in after trading update. my only concern is an acquisition and more debt or a divi cut other than that i am happy.

wow it seems we have a lot on here that have crystal bulls and you assume we all bought high but i for one have a holding at 28.8p. so thanks for trying to warn me about boo but i am ok jack . and anyway while you were busy posting i noticed this was an overreaction and topped up and then a trading update. did your crystal ball see that coming! anyway sorry to all those holding higher but remember the high street sad to say is dying. so your day will come and also this sp drop was a reaction to asos whats not to say that we are taking there customer from them?

looks bleak depends on your veiw i guess! theresa May will face a no-confidence vote this evening after the announcement that 48 Conservative lawmakers had formally called for her ouster.

A decision to delay this week's House of Commons vote on her Brexit deal is though to have enraged previously supportive Tories, plunging the divorce from the EU into chaos.

If over half of Conservative MPs vote against May, there will be a leadership election to choose her replacement.

bloodshot the markets are not on an even playing field at the moment. the shorter's are in control and until the longs come back with some strong buying the sorts have this like a puppet on a string that goes for the hole market. that's not to say a short squeeze can't happen but that will take some certainty to be brought back to the markets. IE brexit /trade war

mb your back nice to read you. so what is your opinion on the current state of the market? i am not feeling good about it i have decided to go defensive on a large chunk of portfolio too much cheap lending. and i think the banks are running for the hills. the nail in the coffin was for me the fact the banks did not want to lend kier money and they got dumped i no this is mainly part of carillon going under but i also think its part of the bigger picture all thoughts welcome.

in the long term i don;t disagree but for now it will get manipulated down. it don.t really matter in the long run i just like to get close to the bottom and when i think i am there i will hold for the long run in the knowledge i have a bit of safety from the down side anyway this is all irrelevant until sp hits 4.35-4.50p.