Member Info for alto1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-02/u-s-said-to-give-eight-nations-oil-waivers-under-iran-sanctions?srnd=premium-europe this could have a bad effect on oil price so caution is needed on pfc i thinks? it could already be priced in but news not old by the looks of it.

i should think there are a lot on here holding the bags but we are in a downward cycle right now it will turn. but by the sounds of you have resided to getting out at break even. but remember when the selloff stops things will fly for a while the problem is lots of investors are under water so when you get a decent rise people selloff dragging sp back down vicious cycle.

great news guys i bought some shares today so if i factor in the luck of the Irish it's of to 7p we go

guys this is the music business they will not not miss out on extra revenue and wait till last minute dot com to get all there ducks in a row that's too risky. they will pull the trigger on vr sales asap remember this is a new source of revenue trust me they will be very keen to see the benefits.

could be a choppy week sanctions kick in 5 Nov so should push up oil unless gob on a stick starts handing out waivers to he's mates. not 100% sure Saudi and Russia can keep up with demand some of these plants are dated can they handle the extra load? anyway if oil can get back to $82 there is no reason why we can't see 620p lets see how it all pans out .

i get some of the points but the alternatives are not ready to take over oil yet. and demand for oil is getting stronger take china hungry for oil in my opinion it will take 5+ years for oil demand to start slowing. plus there is a big difference between investing in new infrastructure to having to upgrade old witch is were we are at. oiler's have not been investing for years and some of this stuff is old so there is lots of work out there and lets not forget we are not 100% dependent on oil services

https://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/WinifredPhillips/20181016/328638/Video_Game_Music_Composers_New_VR_Headphone_Tech_2018.php

https://uploadvr.com/fortnite-developer-epic-games-announces-1-25-billion-investment/

sorry about full stops

hi guys i think the main thing is for us is adoption in the public domain/ the good news is it's already happening i am in the construction industry and the last 3 kitchens i have fitted from mid end suppliers my clients have had vr on there phones to show them there kitchen fitted/ and i have to say it's cool you just face your phone at kitchen area and it shows kitchen fitted witch is great for me too. and you can bet high end suppliers are using this too and as a company we are also looking into this to show our client there finished extensions from a pile of dirt. what i mean is the benefits are to great for vr to fad and burn as for use in music i can't comment but adoption is a key driver and i believe it will come good that why i invested in evr

a 200 ton crane could not hold up pfc's sp luckily it's so predicable that i hedged with a short at nearly the top of the spike hate doing that as i believe pfc is a good company but feed up with being so manipulated

yes this is a source of research but do you see it as fair value assessment of pfc

Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 16 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.3%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 1.4%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:PFC
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 1.4%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 8.6%
Energy Services Unlevered Beta S&P Global 0.34
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.341 (1 + (1- 20%) (75.87%)) 0.549
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.4% + (0.8 * 8.6%) 8.28%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:PFC using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Petrofac is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:PFC DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) 418.50 287.03 557.00 357.00 365.95
Source Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 2.51%
Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.28%) 386.50 244.81 438.75 259.71 245.86
Present value of next 5 years cash flows $1,575.63
LSE:PFC DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $365.95 × (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (8.28% – 1.4%) $5,391.50
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= $5,391.50 ÷ (1 + 8.28%)5 $3,622.27
LSE:PFC Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $1,575.63 + $3,622.27 $5,197.90
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $5,197.90 / 339.69 $15.3
LSE:PFC Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:PFC) 0.76
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD/GBP)
= $15.3 x 0.76 £11.63
Value per share (GBP) From above. £11.63
Current discount Discount to share price of £6.12
= -1 x (£6.12 - £11.63) / £11.63 47.4%
Learn more about our DCF calculations analysis model .

hay guys don't be so down think of it as another chance to buy more at suppressed sp. and it's no surprise sp come down as oil was always going to drop at some point and take pfc with it that's standard welcome to oil sector shares. and if you were buying shares in pfc when oil was high you was always taking a chance of getting caught high. on the plus side all of these have faith! so i guess so should you 02. Oct 18 Buy David Davies Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 757 $6,897.02
02. Oct 18 Buy Andrea Abt Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 757 $6,897.02
02. Oct 18 Buy Matthias Bichsel Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 757 $6,897.02
02. Oct 18 Buy Sara Akbar Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 757 $6,897.02
02. Oct 18 Buy George Pierson Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 757 $6,897.02
02. Oct 18 Buy René Médori Individual 10. Feb 18 10. Feb 18 3,030 $27,606.29
03. Jul 18 Buy David Davies Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 415 $3,185.53
03. Jul 18 Buy Andrea Abt Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 858 $6,585.99
03. Jul 18 Buy Matthias Bichsel Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 858 $6,585.99
03. Jul 18 Buy Sara Akbar Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 858 $6,585.99
03. Jul 18 Buy George Pierson Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 858 $6,585.99
03. Jul 18 Buy René Médori Individual 03. Jul 18 03. Jul 18 2,104 $16,150.26
28. Mar 18 Buy Alastair Cochran Individual 28. Mar 18 28. Mar 18 22,853 $163,636.85
21. Mar 18 Buy Ayman Asfari Individual 21. Mar 18 21. Mar 18 2,023,800 $14,066,081.90 not shore if some of these are gifted share's plus barclays just upgraded us to £10 yes i no broker upgrade's rubbish and so on but they called oil oil drop 2 days ago so i do have some faith that they might actually be calling it correct and not trying to dupe retail investors.

we have a lot of reasons why sp dropped but how about the plan and simple one.institutions don't pay retail prices for there shares when we went above 10p it was retail prices and was pushed further and sadly retail investor kept buying the institution push sp back down leaving retail trader holding the bags. retail panics and sells back the shares and the process gets repeated. good news if you got in Monday you could see a 40% return. if you are holding the bags then you can average down but hurry 10p is looming. of course there is no guarantee of this but it looks like it has good momentum. it pulled back from 5% down yesterday meaning good upward pressure hope i have not put a bock on it

yes they are a symptom but and we all slag them of but they also deserve some respect and taken notice of. as they take a much bigger risk shorting a company and there research is second to none when picking there target. and lets not forget they weed out some of the crooked ponzi scheme company's valid to fill there pockets but it can help us retail investors see the warning signs

shorts did not drive sp down it just fell to it's true value. that's not to say it wont go back up but i cant see it making above 18p for a long time as they are expected to be loss making for next couple of years. but LTH's wont care and it looks like a trading share with a range of 5-10p so maybe good for both trading/investing styles

for those that are interested. Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.3%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 1.4%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:EVRH
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 1.4%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 8.6%
Software Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.61
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.612 (1 + (1- 19%) (0%)) 0.612
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.4% + (0.8 * 8.6%) 8.28%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:EVRH using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for EVR Holdings is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

AIM:EVRH DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) -11.70 -5.60 11.60 9.63 8.09
Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -17%, capped from 0% Est @ -16%, capped from 0%
Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.28%) -10.81 -4.78 9.14 7.00 5.43
Present value of next 5 years cash flows £5.99
AIM:EVRH DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= £8.09 × (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (8.28% – 1.4%) £119.15
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= £119.15 ÷ (1 + 8.28%)5 £80.05
AIM:EVRH Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= £5.99 + £80.05 £86.05
Equity Value per Share
(GBP) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= £86.05 / 1,299.44 £0.07
AIM:EVRH Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (GBP) From above. £0.07
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.05
= -1 x (£0.05 - £0.07) / £0.07 22.6%

days to cover is coming up N/A the short is is only 0.98%. but they still have to be careful when closing as they are buying back lots of shares witch can push sp up on a supply and demand basis or it may trigger buyers as it will show lots of shares being bought.anyhow i have bought in friday as evr is now below it's intrinsic value witch is 7p

max they will not buy back all those shares in a day. they will spread it out as they do not want to spook the market it's called days to cover. they will probably buy back over 3 days that's about the right days to cover i hope they do try to of load quick as they may cause a short squeeze that will be good for us i will try to find out out days to cover figure and post again