Member Info for alto1

So Pfc adr is 248% up and has held there from suspension. This does not mean it will hold on open but at the least I would say it’s a positive only for the short term traders. To the long term investor this is just noise. I cannot find any data that has prompted this large move only the lifting of suspension will validate.

Don’t get to hooked up on the shorts. There is more to this. The one thing I can tell you it is slated that due to there accounting Pfc is a stock that is easy to value due to backlog of work. If this is the case then the Sp does not reflect current value which is telling me something else is wrong. I have now sold 50% of my holding. I am not saying sell but my job is to protect my equity.

Hi I am not wrong the only person that will be wrong is the agent at HL as what I wrote is what he said on the phone.

I have just got of phone to HL regarding POLY SHARES they are going to steal our shares Thanet will become worthless. I was told they tried to get a aix listing company but did not agree to there term so instead we can kiss goodbye to our money. They need to be accountable for this grave error in judgment when dealing with there clients. They could of done way more to protect clients money . Instead they are allowing our money to be stolen. I did not go out of my way to buy poly I bought on the LSE. we as Uk investors should be protected from this kind of money grab. Not even a formal letter discussing this serious matter. Please set up a formal legal letter to send to HL or any company that is ripping you off kind regards scott.

the pfc slow train is making it's way to the station all those that bought the long haul ticket will be rewarded. the short haulers will be rewarded but will move on to early only to have to find next investment that could prove a wrong decision. me i am here all the way to dividend reinstatement don't need to chase falling knifes already caught one. well done to all that rise above the noise the ones that are not inflicted with indecision or the inability to be patient. see you all at the end game. just after covid hit 2+ years ago i was screaming for Pfc to stop there dividend there was an old boy on here that did not want this to happen as it was he's pension. he has stuck in my head as i felt sorry for him i do hope you are back in as you will be in a better position now than you was then if this plays out as i see. don't know your name but all the best with your investing.

walttor.. put your money in a bank it will be safer for you.

LSE:PFC Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 7 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:PFC
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 4.2%
Energy Services Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.68
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.683) * (1 + (1 - 20.0%) (167.26%))] 2.966
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 2
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.88% + (2 * 4.24%) 9.36%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:PFC using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Petrofac is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:PFC DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.36%)
2022 84.2 Analyst x5 76.99
2023 129.78 Analyst x4 108.51
2024 169.13 Analyst x4 129.31
2025 163.13 Analyst x3 114.05
2026 159.77 Est @ -2.06% 102.14
2027 157.89 Est @ -1.18% 92.3
2028 157.01 Est @ -0.56% 83.93
2029 156.8 Est @ -0.13% 76.65
2030 157.08 Est @ 0.17% 70.21
2031 157.68 Est @ 0.39% 64.45
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $918
LSE:PFC DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $157.683 x (1 + 0.88%) ÷ (9.36% - 0.88% ) $1,875.83
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$1,876 ÷ (1 + 9.36%)10 $766.67
LSE:PFC Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $918 + $767 $1,684.67
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1,685 / 511 $3.3
LSE:PFC Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:PFC) 0.758
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $3.3 x 0.76 £2.5
Value per share (GBP) From above. £2.5
Current discount Discount to share price of £1.07
= (£2.5 - £1.07) / £2.5 57.3%

this is a great time to jump on board (1) UAE bidding allowed (2) Russia being pushed out lot of money and projects needed to compensate (3) north sea licences coming back green peace backing off (4) diversification within company strong (5) non stop share purchase by company insiders(6) possible return to dividend 1/1/23 subject to certain covenant tests (7) intrinsic value £2.50 (8) now have 25% of pfc within my portfolio.

oil could spike again due to TEXAS oil refiners shutting down pipe line deep freeze weather causing problems.

Texas oil refiners have shut down due to deep freeze weather so oil might start spiking again.

maybe should of held at least until 2..30 tomorrow when USA opens after holidays. a correction is coming in oil for sure when??? but i reckon BP has some more legs for tomorrow. for oil i would not be surprised to see Brent at $100 by august. reason no investment banks are not willing to lend to this industry oil death spiral 2025/2028 but we will have a few years in this up cycle.

no need to be nervous pay no attention to the noise be confident in your investment. if someone on a chat forum can give you doubts then the investment was not for you in the first place. nobody on this board can tell you the future of PFC if they could they would already be very wealthy and probably not posting on a 117P stock forum. it funny when the share price is low the number of posts rise by lots = day traders and they are always noisy always shouting from the roof tops when they take a nickel and dime profit.

Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 12 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 11.5%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:PFC
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.2%
Energy Services Unlevered Beta S&P Global 1.72
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.723) * (1 + (1 - 20.0%) (235.71%))] 3.661
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 2
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.00% + (2 * 5.23%) 11.46%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:PFC using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Petrofac is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:PFC DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 11.46%)
2021 216.44 Analyst x9 194.18
2022 132.33 Analyst x9 106.51
2023 49.43 Analyst x3 35.7
2024 386.7 Analyst x1 250.55
2025 268.3 Analyst x1 155.96
2026 206.6 Est @ -23% 107.75
2027 173.96 Est @ -15.8% 81.4
2028 155.25 Est @ -10.76% 65.17
2029 144.02 Est @ -7.23% 54.25
2030 137.17 Est @ -4.76% 46.35
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $1,097
LSE:PFC DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $137.165 x (1 + 1.00%) ÷ (11.46% - 1.00% ) $1,324.45
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$1,324 ÷ (1 + 11.46%)10 $447.55
LSE:PFC Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $1,097 + $448 $1,544.55
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1,545 / 336 $4.6
LSE:PFC Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:PFC) 0.728
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $4.6 x 0.73 £3.35
Value per share (GBP) From above. £3.35
Current discount Discount to share price of £1.17
= (£3.35 - £1.17) / £3.35 65.2%

yes

talk is cheap money buys houses, relax chill out pfc will bring you wealth in time and while your waiting go buy some BP if PFC don't bring you all the wealth you want BP will top it up for you best off luck to all..

other reasons for drop just following market but main reason share placing at 128p but wmh had a good run all the v shaped recovery speculators are i think starting to wonder if this is looking more like a w or u shaped recovery.. i don't think you will see wmh at 30p again but 90p yes..we are entering a stage of intrinsic value destruction more debt no dividend share dilution not exactly a great environment to be long in....

only a vaccine will undo all the psychological scares i am expecting a 1 year + bear market. don't let that put you off i like everyone else is guessing but i have to base my plan on something so i have gone long on the vix /tza so it's not a case of just selling it's hedging. i just don't want to sit on my hands if things get real messy?

keeping an eye out for lloyds bank i don't think the banks stress tests can prepare for this? you can't call a bottom when most company's have not felt the full brunt of lock downs in earnings. there will be lots of debt default don't fall into the trap of thinking covid only tunnel vision the now is economic impact because investors can now take a breath and focus on that. one good thing is oil tends to do a v shaped recovery but are people going to go back to normal habits that quick? ie airlines will suffer for a year or two anything were people have to be in such close quarters will suffer.

calm down take some profit it won't hold.

to all those that missed the bottom fear not you will get another chance this move won't hold.