RE: alfa9 Mar 2020 13:05
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Bushveld Minerals.
AIM:BMN Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.3%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 0.5%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:BMN
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 0.5%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 8.2%
Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta / S&P Global 0.90
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.895) * (1 + (1 - 28.0%) (2.11%))] 0.939
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.939
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.53% + (0.939 * 8.23%) 8.26%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:BMN using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Bushveld Minerals is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
AIM:BMN DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.26%)
2020 13.61 Analyst x2 12.58
2021 54.81 Analyst x2 46.76
2022 64 Analyst x1 50.44
2023 112.3 Analyst x1 81.76
2024 151.73 Est @ 35.11% 102.04
2025 189.25 Est @ 24.73% 117.57
2026 222.32 Est @ 17.47% 127.58
2027 249.87 Est @ 12.39% 132.45
2028 271.94 Est @ 8.83% 133.15
2029 289.18 Est @ 6.34% 130.8
Present value of next 5 years cash flows $935
AIM:BMN DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $289.182 x (1 + 0.53%) ÷ (8.26% - 0.53% ) $3,762.21
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$3,762 ÷ (1 + 8.26%)10 $1,701.66
AIM:BMN Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $935 + $1,702 $2,636.66
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $2,637 / 1,153 $2.29
AIM:BMN Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of AIM:BMN) 0.768
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $2.29 x 0.77 £1.76
Value per share (GBP) From above. £1.76
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.17
= -1 x (£0.17 - £1.76) / £1.76 90.3%