Member Info for alto1

yes he does! i hate it when they talk like there on the trading floor.

pkc i was just doing a bit more research on oil and this guy popped up you seem to have an interest in oil so i thought i would share it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=870&v=893OjhuIrzQ&feature=emb_title

sorry mate that's a oil fund Etf that i have that expires on the 8th may just hope they can store more or use it even with lock down lifted i just can't see people going back to there normal businesses younger people yes. another thing is the Americans the way they are protesting in large groups if they have to do a complete lock down again this will have a bad impact on all markets lets hope that's not the case but trump is doing he's best to cause a civil up rise.

pk no problem if i am honest when the June/July results come in these will hold the full brunt of lock downs that's why lots of company's are not doing guidance that scares me! i can see the dow retesting 18,225 pfc bottomed around 150p ish but that would mean the loss of contract is not priced in? the oil futures expire on the 8th may so i think i wont pull the trigger until then i have a small holding. i may miss out but i have some US oil company's so not bothered.

A bear trap is a technical pattern that occurs when the performance of a stock, index, or other financial instrument incorrectly signals a reversal of a rising price trend. The trap is thus a false reversal of a declining price trend. Bear traps can tempt investors into taking long positions based on anticipation of price movements which do not end up taking place.

i am referring to a bear trap rally that's going on in equities as a hole but you could say oil industry is already in a bear market. but if you believe that it wont suffer much more pain if equities do a bear correction now could be a good time to find the bottoms? let not forget oil can jump at any time due to trumps/opec influence. on a bigger picture for pfc i don't see a lot of spending on projects for the hole of 2020 could be wrong so backlog will stay stagnant. 150p ish does seem to be holding.

cripes no one can answer that but if most stop production then oil should recover but they can't even store surplus i posted as to why they probably won't stop production. more cuts still not enough depends how deep. but the big question is do you believe we are in or going into recession if answer is yes then your hope of pfc being at the bottom is quit high. my own opinion is this is setting up quite nice for a bear trap not specific to pfc

yes of course it is?

this is a memo sent out by my analyst he not known for holding back!To reiterate the big problem which I see: The front-end futures are telling us something today, that caught the market by surprise: Namely, that there is no physical storage available at any price. Estimates had been circulating that there were a couple of months of storage. But the market is telling us otherwise. If storage truly is tapped out, then there is absolutely no reason right now to suppose that there isn't going to be a price collapse all along the futures curve going out to December. If this happens, the entire oil industry, with few exceptions, will be facing insolvency. And there will be major repercussions from massive bankruptcies the US and global financial system. As well as economic blow-back from loss of wealth, loss of income, etc. Banks will get hit; real estate will get hit. Every industry -- and there are many across the entire economy -- that services oil firms is vulnerable. Economies in states like Texas, that have been economic engines for the US, will be in serious trouble. My concern is that once you reach this critical point, there is no easy way to start limiting the damage. Unless some sort of plan for coordinated US cuts can be put into place quickly and/or storage can be manufactured quickly (both unlikely), extreme economic damage to the oil industry and to the overall economy looks like the most likely outcome.

shrewd i think this is wishful thinking it will be more like more contracts gone. i am doing more research and thing are just not good i was thinking they could stop production but this is kind of not an option. One thing to understand is that it is not easy to shut down production at wells. At many types of wells, shutting production is extremely costly and re-starting can be prohibitively costly. And in the case of many wells, shutting down production at the well will mean completely losing oil field (which you have paid millions for and have paid millions or even billions to bring into production), because once pressure is lost, there is permanent damage to the field. So, this problem is existential for many producers. And this comes back to my points about bankruptcies and destruction of intrinsic value.

putin said at the beginning he was fed up with US not cutting production so we new that was the problem. and now storage is full to the brim. us will have to do something to many jobs at stake but remember most of the US shale industry is hedged at higher prices so they may last longer than people think but not much longer.

just another thought if they can't store it maybe they will stop production or reduce more all bods well for oil $80 in one year yes long term holders gamblers need not apply.

BF some of this is a storage problem also remember the oil crashing is futures so the month of may is negative. for example the august contracts are $29 December is $33. but if they sort oil storage problem then oil will rise plus the oil took of the markets wont return quickly they will fear bringing it back down and it's not like flicking a switch. the stored oil will deplete quick if we get back to some normality just my opinion

of course if oil rises that will change things.

wait for US to open they may see a different bottom just saying.

march 16th 149.98 low.

for anyone interested check out a ticker UCO it is an oil fund it's for some one who thinks long term when all is back to normal? they wont just turn spigots back on oil will rise high for a while and uco will track it up. if things go wrong with pfc UCO could cover you this is not advice but i just like a back up plain. it's at $1.64 and a 1 year high of $23 yes rub your eyes that is $23 and not that long ago your broker will have them but you may need to do a digital w8 form it's easy.

looking at 145p target will wait for the yanks to selloff at 14.30 don't care if i miss this low.

what makes you think it's priced in the market is on fumes from fed stimulus don't get caught in a bear trap this market is best suited to traders not investors depends what you are? the good news is trump might pay the shale industry to leave oil in the ground in 1 year you might see oil at $100 until they start the cycle again and flood market.

best of waiting until q2 earnings are done they are going to be ugly. us unemployment numbers tomorrow 13.30