Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
To expand on your analogy Einbert, the market possibly also sees it as waiting on well results (let's call the well Verbier for the sake of argument) which promises up to 130mb, only for it to turn out it only has 25mb and the main partner (let's call them Station/Equinor) decide to subsequently pull out. Equinor walking away from a 'free' 30% in the GBA if memory serves I guess also doesn't help. As you can most likely sense, I'll be glad when the waiting is over and now thoroughly bored of watching this daily for so far non existent news. It does still feel like a no brainer opportunity for anyone remotely interested in offsetting their tax and should firmly stand on it's own legs even if the tax rebate wasn't on offer and so still looking forward to news, albeit if peering out for it from behind the sofa gla
This is starting to feel like a slow form of torture, it doesn't help that the longer time passes I look at ABs CV and think why would someone leave an investment bank job at Deutsche to become a Spanish estate agent, did he only get the job at Longreach as his dad threw him the job and then managed to get booted out as CEO, did he only get the job at JOG after presumably a family friend (RL) got him in, surely though they wouldn't be awarded licences and extensions if he wasn't up to it but the longer this drags it's hard for doubt not to creep in, at least there isn't much longer to wait now until we find out, praying this does come good and he can pull it off, the oil is there and oil cos need something to offset against so any other time would look like a dead cert, realistically having waited this long it seems logical nothing is going to happen now until after the budget and then it should soon follow, but then logic and JOG rarely seem to have much in common GLA
The guy is 71, whilst not that old by today's standards I'm sure he's looking forward to some relaxed cruises and a bit of golf, I certainly hope I will be at that stage, and if a deal is done like we're all hoping then all the more reason to enjoy his retirement
Perhaps it's just been Amati gradually selling down their stake?, they were previously listed as the second largest shareholder but went below the 3% sometime in December looking at the shareholder list on JOGs site, my guess is they've been selling down the residual <3% the last couple of months
Sounds positive, hard not to get too dispondent given the share price has halved from October with no material difference in the situation but seen it at 50p in the past and kept the faith , the tax seems especially unfair given how unevenly the windfall tax has been applied, you could look at other markets/companies that have arguably benefited more like BAe Systems for one and so would prefer for it to go altogether but being realistic a price floor and retention of the investment allowance are probably the best we can hope for given the political nature of where the tax came from in the first place
I still don't get how you be certain of something being signed if it's 3+ months away from being done, I also wonder how water tight the wording was, I mean, I look forward to winning the euromillions if not this week then certainly in the near future but doesn't mean it's actually going to happen so would be good to know from any lawyers if that was actually a commitment or AB just professing what he'd like to see. This is certainly getting tedious that's for sure, if it was going to be a buyout would we have started to see someone build a stake at these levels by now? In the meantime we see almost more chat posts than trades and the price continuing to fall. For the sanity of all of us I'm hoping we'll be let in on what's happening very soon.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1006549/enquest-shares-spooked-by-lower-production-guidance-1006549.html?rel=scroll It does seem to be a hard slog out there atm, all the more reason to take a deal when one's on offer rather than wait for the perfect deal that might never happen, the closer we get to the end of March the more it's looking like in hindsight it's just backing them into a corner
Personally I'd be surprised, if JOG held more gas then maybe, but https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/centrica-marks-further-uk-shift-away-from-oil-through-sale-of-norwegian-assets-12489951 . Hopefully the longer talks go on any partner isn't coming to the same conclusion as Madcrann, would be a shame for everyone to lose so much for the sake of one man's assessment over their own ability to deliver and their ego/personality to get in the way. The tax situation may have worsened but price of oil and need for energy security and diminishing assets available should at least partially offset that imo.
With the chunky sells today perhaps someone thought they might yet end up with gruel with a side of water, I'm going to pass on ordering ahead and wait until the next RNS, 34 working days until end of March.....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/uk-s-hunt-says-he-won-t-increase-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-firms?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google. Good news update on the windfall tax, arguably shouldn't need to wait for the spring budget now, also Saudis increasing the oil price as well so look positive, just need AB to get it done now.
The only tinge of doubt I have is how can you be certain of something end of November which is now looking like it's going to be 3 or 4 months later, if there is a farm out signed before the end of Q1 hopefully he'll also be good enough to pop the upcoming lottery numbers in the RNS as well, all joking aside, only 41 workings days in the quarter left, still plenty of time for detail but will soon come round......
I agree Jog isn't without risk, the market cap, the fact it's on aim and historic share price fluctuations attest to that, and while you may be trying to ensure people get into Jog with their eyes open but personally I think you're comparing apples and pears in this case, Verbier was an Equinor led drilling programme to ascertain volumes, with the GBA the volumes and data are already there and known from Repsol days and more recent further analysis so I can't think of a similar scenario where AB has been so unambiguous and positive in his comments as those in November, whether they were based on fact or hope we'll soon find out
I seem to recall 2021 was supposedly fully funded until a funding raise was leaked and then announced March '21bafter a sharp drop in the sp , can't think of any value they've delivered in the nearly 2 years since then other than move to better headquarters in Jersey, expansion of headcount and lots of options issued, it's well past time now for them to deliver for us shareholders, hearing about cash burn and watching the share price drift lower is starting to feel like a clock counting them down to getting something signed, must be about ten to midnight about now. If Benitz can't deliver this after two years by the end of March then I think we need someone else who can, hoping it won't come to that as dread to think what the sp will be come April if there's still no farm out
Neither article mentions JOG.
First article is around numbers no longer looking attractive for small fields in light of recent tax changes and need to use electricity to reduce carbon, but unless I missed it doesn't actually say what constitutes a 'small' field. Second article doesn't really say much new in my opinion, mentions Cambo and some others but not the GBA. You can sometimes get around the paywall by using a 2ne or 3rd browser i.e. where your main browser is chrome copy the URL into dudckduckgo or edge or clear cookies and you typically get a couple of free views per month
Extract from the first article
"Currently there are “over 300” offshore finds that are not yet “under serious examination for development”, says Professor Alex Kemp of Aberdeen University.
Most of the unexplored discoveries are “relatively small”, meaning it is unlikely firms will take the risk of investing in them for limited reward, according to the leading petroeconomist."
The trouble with Labour for JOG isn't another 3% it's the multiple mentions of them doing away with the investment allowance, with the current government doing everything they can to make themselves unelectable it now seems only a matter of time until they're gone, gives all the more reason for JOG to get something signed asap, especially as they get closer to the end of March they could find themselves in a corner, of the delay is because they're haggling over a percent here or there they need to swallow their pride and just take the deal on offer in my view. Not long left to find out now whatever is going on.
The more I read the last paragraph of the last RNS the more I worry by using "discussions" rather than "negotiations" he has left enough wiggle room to announce come April 'we have now successfully concluded discussions with multiple counterparties and move on to further reducing our shortlist of preferred partners....' or some other nonsense to drag this on for several more months, as I've mentioned before if you're certain of something then 4 months seems an awfully wide window to give yourself so was also expecting an update things had moved forward by now
For something communicated 2 months ago to be 'certainly in Q1' every day that ticks by with no further update does makes me increasingly anxious as nothing is really certain until they sign on the dotted line. We can draw all the assumptions we like from different signs and signals before the next RNS but ultimately until news I don't think there's anything that hasn't already been said multiple times over. I think this waiting is making me even more grouchy than usual. GLA
I still can't imagine a takeover, perhaps on oversimplification but a company can get a fair chunk of JOG equity for a commitment to fund all the development costs and write it all development cost off as investment against profits that would have gone into the windfall tax, whereas if they bought Jog outright I could be wrong but they wouldn't be able to offset that against tax as investment? After purchasing Jog they would still have to find the development cost, so in some ways would be paying twice but with only half the tax benefit.
I could be wrong but sites like this only have it as an indication based on the mid-price when the trade shows, if you look on the source data on the London Stock Exchange for instance it doesn't report but/sell, just the price and time