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Having watched this share practically daily for about 6 years I can only imagine they're limit order sells @222p having being filled. Would be nice to think they're someone who's had a bit of a tip off things are close but in the past that sort of volume when a buy would have precipitated a big jump and it has only drifted downwards in the last couple of weeks
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/richard-smith-1a7454a5 Richard Smith looks like he never left Aberdeen from his LinkedIn, with video conference and working remotely these days probably makes more sense than relocating to Jersey, https://www.cbre.co.uk/property-search/office-space/coworking/listings/details/GB-Plus-486288?view=isLetting desks are cheap there as well, couple of hundred quid a month per desk. To have so much 'certainty' of a deal in November, giving himself a 4 month window seems quite generous so looking forward to seeing a deal actually getting done sooner rather than later
I was hoping the price would creep up in the new year in anticipation of a deal but not hugely surprised to see it drift back again, as a LTH it's a case of I'll believe it when I see it for a deal being signed. I really hope it doesn't get to the last week of March still waiting for a fresh RNS but fully prepared for that being the case, hopefully I'm wrong!
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/470827/north-sea-windfall-tax/ a good summary of what has mostly already been said across several posts on here, such as complications borrowing with no poo floor limit on the wft
I never gave much consideration to them applying for anything in the 33rd licence round but with the biggest player in the NS out of the picture declaring they won't be applying JOG might have a decent shot at picking something up, if they were thinking of applying it would lend more weight towards farmout of Buchan rather than takeover of the whole thing imo https://www.ft.com/content/1a219f8c-5b23-497f-8db6-5fda92caacbd
Article updated again, looks like they'll be no imminent revisions to the windfall tax, too politically sensitive I suppose his budget hinged on the tax bringing in billions so watering it down so soon after could suggest his numbers don't add up, if they ever did, whatever the reality is either way
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-finance-minister-hunt-discusses-windfall-tax-with-oil-execs-2022-12-09/ was hoping for something a bit more tangible than this
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/total-energies-slashes-100m-from-north-sea-plans-after-windfall-tax/%3famp=1 more pressure being put on to introduce a floor price
As every day was ticking by without an announcement I was getting increasingly nervous prospective partners might have wanted to reject the North Sea like Shell to teach the chancellor a lesson on the laffer curve, I suppose not everyone has Shells luxury of being able to cast its net wherever it wants, this mornings announcement has set my mind at rest somewhat and looking forward to the next one, preferably not the end of March but at least with every RNS the language is becoming more and more specific and less woolly and open to interpretation, not going to get too carried after 5 years of holding but there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel now. GLA
Would a farm in partner really need to buy out JOG though? That would be my preference but if a farm in partner wanted to hedge against the tax they could ask for 50%+ (let's be honest do JOG have much negotiation room if cash is running out) of JOG in return for funding the development costs which could all be offset against tax on their own profits and maybe a token cash gesture to JOG, and the farm-in partner won't have to worry about risking a huge amount of upfront cash and will gain a big chunk of GBA which they would have otherwise lost in tax. Hope I'm wrong but I don't see why they would bother buying JOG when they can get a significant chunk for essentially free.
The situation does seem worse for me than pre the Hunt budget, with the later date there is less impetuous for the FO partner to get a move on and benefit from the rebate, it also shows the government want to milk oil for all it's worth and gives less certainty further down the line on what the tax will be, I think Shells problem in my view is they want to know when they can pocket some of the cash from their investment, as it is it will be the best part of 5 years before the can make a cash profit, which for them would be relatively small in the scheme of things with more certain and lucrative returns to be had elsewhere and that's assuming we don't have a labour government in 2028 who would potentially put taxes up even further
Not particularly cheerful reading from todays telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/21/reconsiders-25bn-investment-uk-energy-windfall-tax-raid/ Shell saying they're re-evaluating their NS investments in light of last week's budget, if JOG do have to submit an FDP tomorrow to secure a Vernier licence extension, in lieu of a FO to finance their plans I'm not sure it could be deemed credible and so would be accepted? They said due diligence would be concluded end of Oct, it's now nearly end of Nov, they're sure to be clever guys crunching the numbers and changing a few cells on a spreadsheet post the budget shouldn't be rocket science to them, the longer this wait goes on the less confident I'm becoming of a positive outcome, wish they'd get their skates on, at this rate I'll be hoping for not just a white one but a Christmas miracle
Good the allowance was kept but with the date of the tax levy being extended could it not deter investment? Surely it won't take 5+ years to set up so whilst it might save tax in the short term to get things up and running they're still going to get clobbered at some point on tax? Wish I could feel more confident and will happily be corrected on this?
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/dana-enters-north-sea-acreage-close-to-giant-buzzard-field/ farm out deals are being signed then, even before the 17th, come on JOG get it done, no more excuses now........
There's always going to be some reason or another to delay signing a deal, sooner or later they they'll have to get something done, the way things have been going lately we'll have had another couple of prime minister's and multiple budgets before a drop of black stuff comes out the ground so they have to draw a line somewhere, I can see the sense in waiting a few weeks from the 31st Oct to 17th Nov but will be very disappointed if it's much longer than that
From what I have read the applications don't need to be in until 12th Jan and awards expected start of Q2, assuming they don't try and retain being operators in a farm out and have that wrapped up it may actually work out well with a bit of luck in my opinion timing wise: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2022/nsta-launches-33rd-offshore-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/
https://www.cityam.com/licensing-round-launched-for-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects/
Similar to myself, I bought the bulk of mine in 2017 at 242 with only a small top up around 70p, so many false dawns since then I was tempted to sell some yesterday but after the emotional roller coaster of the last 5 years of holding these I decided to hold on to them all and wait for the final destination. Held them long enough to know in a few weeks they could be 60p or 600p+ depending on any FO news but at this point I'd less upset about seeing them tank (again) than I would to sell and then see them take off, FOMO isn't an investment strategy I know but the oil is there, they just need someone to help them get it out the ground for a fair cut in the most favourable environment they've had open to them since the license was awarded.
Enough new information in the RNS to keep me interested a while longer, I've read the 'October' reference as a tree shake to see if those just sniffing around are genuinely interested and could force their hand one way or the other to act before those who are serious about a farm out do before them, I've been holding for more or less 5 years now, another 6 weeks or so isn't going to hurt. I'm personally less concerned about the tax situation now, Truss seems more reliable to me to stick to core conservative ideology than Johnson/Sunak.
Feels even longer when it's the perfect conditions for a deal but the only thing they can ever seem to communicate/produce are more director share options. I'm thoroughly fed up waiting now and fully expect the interims will be another copy and paste 'strong industry interest' 'busy first half of the year' and with the only change being '2023 will be the year to unlock value for shareholders'