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Would they secure an FSPO prior to the FDP approval next year? Also isn't it likely the 2nd farm out partner will wait for the FDP approval as well so they have a better idea of what they're getting themselves into?. Perhaps in both cases they'll see the FDP as a rubber stamping and they will happen before, but if not, we could be in for wait of several months before anything material happens unless there's the elusive takeout of JOG which since the post FO drift I'm guessing a quick and clean £5 exit will look extermely attractive to quite a few right now. Hope I'm wrong. Otherwise, only thing I can think of to spice it up a bit in the short term is a 33rd round NSTA licence award, assuming of course they even applied for one.
If the 100 or so new licences flagged today are the overdue 33rd round that were meant to start being announced in Q2, and carbon capture has been talked about for a while now, there doesn't really appear to have been anything new announced today from what I can tell https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2023/33rd-round-attracts-115-bids-across-258-blocks-or-part-blocks/ still, as long as the sp goes up I won't complain too much
Sunak in Aberdeen tomorrow apparently https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-to-pour-millions-into-north-sea-carbon-capture-7pp509s2c
Since I live in a town which is about as Conservative as you can possibly get, where if they pinned a blue rosette on a donkey it would still get more votes than everyone else combined, I agree with many of the sentiments you've raised, but in the interests of fairness I did think levelling up should have been given a chance albeit Sunak has made clear that will never happen, with all the South East infrastructure investment I do often think benefits shouldn't be given to anyone in the South Eaast as if you can't get a job living there with all the extra advantages afforded to that part of the country then they really aren't trying hard enough. Ranting about the structural unfairness in the country isn't going to solve JOGs woes though, with supposedly being in the throes of a cost of living crisis perhaps people don't have as much 0% cash to throw around on small cap AIM stocks, as compelling an investment as JOG is for us here and as agrvied as we feel others can't see what's staring them in the face JOG clearly hasn't done anywhere near enough yet to attract the attention it needs to.
The 33rd licence round first announments were due at the end of Q2 so already delayed, maybe he was laying the ground for the first awards, with emergency evacuations from Greece any news on loosening O&G policy is going to be a hard sell in my view at the moment unless the Conservatives throw in the towel and think 'f@@k it, let's not care about what we do is percieved for the next 12 months we're going to get voted out anyway'. I'd guess any positive news on top of licences such as on the levy/wft front would likely be in the Autumn/Winter when voters have paying their gas bills closer to the forefront of their minds.
It really looks to me like there's no new news due in the short term to trigger someone to buy a substantial amount so the best we can hope for until the FDP in 2024 is it treads water for the next 6-8 months and likelihood is it will drift downwards. I'd love someone to out of the blue pick up 5% but if they were going to based on news you'd have thought they'd have done that by now. I've stopped checking this regularly as I think we're going to be stuck in the doldrums for some time.
If anything though, in the medium term surely it's the Ithica lot who'll need to go? With Jog no longer being operator what is their purpose? You would have to think their day to day work must be non existent now. As I see it the only reasons for keeping them on are either they're planning to purchase a small producing asset or they have applied for additional licences in the 33rd round and we'll hear in the next couple of months if they've been successful. Otherwise, once the 2nd farmee is secured surely all they need is someone to distribute the Neo payments through special dividends as and when they come in and it won't really matter if the CEO is an oil man or not, as the locus for oil the decisions will rest with Neo
Once they secure a 2nd farmee will it even need a CEO? At that point they're just an equity investment in a field with Neo holding the reigns, perhaps they're busy looking for a producer on the cheap to keep themselves in jobs hence the resolutions at the agm to raise equity?.
Can't be bothered to look exactly when I first got into JOG but over 5 years now, it's by far the most frustrating stock I've ever owned, you occasionally get someone buying 5% and it doubles in a short space of time and then they sell down and it halves, besides that you could put a rocket under it and it doesn't seem to budge. There doesn't appear to be much on the horizon now in the next 6-12 months that will cause a re-rate in the news, not that good news has done much for the price anyway, just sitting and hoping someone sees long term what JOG has to offer and buys 5% or even better the whole thing. One thing is for sure, I'm not buying AIM again, fundamentals appear to count for nothing, the whole UK markets looks broken to me, it's time they got pension funds investing rather than relying on bonds. Sorry for the rant but very disappointed with the price, I accept it won't go up on good news alone and needs buyers but surely there has to be someone out there who can see what a steal this should be at this price.
Currently showing on the sky news yellow ticker as well now. Level looks to be 71.40 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/britain-brings-price-floor-north-sea-windfall-tax-2023-06-09/ should help any negotiations for 20/25% remaining FO partner
Https://www.ft.com/content/f69e5069-1a00-42c1-8219-84ccd5cbbfd9
Hoping more people start taking notice of how undervalued JOG is soon. Interesting Harbour are showing they haven't just been spouting hollow words, surely the government need to do the sensible thing soon https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/north-sea-oil-gas-producer-harbour-merger-talks-with-talos-sources-2023-06-06/ the Russians and Saudi must be delighted with our 'leaders' continuous attacks our our oil industry
I've been scratching my head over this as well wondering what's going on, I bought more recently at 2.20 thinking they surely couldn't go any lower, but then logic and JOG sp never really have gone hand in hand, it's crazy the sp is lower than when the fo was announced. It doesn't matter how many times they get tipped with a target price vastly above the current sp they still trickle down. Shows what a state the UK investing market is in and no wonder more and more UK companies are looking to list in the US, are we really so risk averse as a nation now.
The investor day last week hasn't had the effect I was hoping for, possibly it was the 3 questions on equity raise scenarios in the AGM notice that's made a few less commited holders nervous and caused them to move on. Hoping the finalisation of the farm out in the next few weeks will remove any jitters and get the SP moving northwards again, if it was me I'd be trying to get the Neo deal completed for the AGM on the 20th June but then what do I know. Can't see any reason Sunak would call an early election so worst case they've got 18 months to make any approvals bullet proof. Looks like it could be another long wait ahead of us before this gets to recent highs again, hopefully I'm wrong. GLA
More than ever they need to get their scates and make sure this is well beyond the ability of labour to put a stop to it when they, what now seems to be inevitable,
get into power https://www.cityam.com/labour-may-as-well-hand-out-dole-notices-after-north-sea-oil-ban-plans/
Updated corporate presentation on their website today https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/JOG-Corporate-Presentation-23.05.23.pdf
Will probably be a few articles knocking around later today, here's one of the first out https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/latest-uk-offshore-oil-project-matures-as-route-to-development-emerges/2-1-1455455
It does read a bit like JOG have written it themselves, it even has their contact telephone number at the bottom which I don't normally see on share tips, that aside, the comments are truly bizarre, that's half the trouble with the internet, who knows who these people are and what their true motivation is