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Https://www.fuelcellchina.com/Industry_information_details/1073.html

The Chinese risk may not be quite as bad as some fear. They currently make mostly alkaline electrolysers- not in direct competition with ITM. Also there have been significant delays in their highest profile projects suggesting some ongoing issues with reliability etc. There have been articles like the above suggesting that they might not be as cheap as initially thought. Final defence is political USA won’t support Chinese products in their IRA, Europe may well go the same way and UK- who knows!

Mike- no dilution as far as I am aware since £4 placing. Cash position strong as a result of the cash placement.

Progress has been bumpy since then. Increased losses on support for prior deliveries, slow ramp up of production, losses greater than expected.

Since change if CEO we initially had a little bit of kitchen sinking ie get all the bad news out at once. Since then it appears steady execution of plan. Slower ramp up of orders and production has given ITM time to get things in order. The increased power supply to factory to allow FAT to be completed at reasonable scale a basic. Collaborations with Johnson Matthey and a couple of other companies notable. Some big orders in the pipeline 3x100MW but no final investment decisions made on these.

I would say looking a lot brighter than 1 year ago but need evidence of orders and delivery to de-risk this. Then we should be looking at £4 again. In ITMs defence they haven’t wasted as much money as plug power and are now razor focussed- even more so than NEL. The delay in FIDs over the last year may have been in ITMs favour. For me it’s a buy/hold at this level. Managed to top up a little at lower prices. Tempted to buy a few more.

DYOR

As far as I am aware most of the Chinese competitors are alkaline electrolysis. PEM is more efficient and better matched to intermittent renewables. I suspect that Chinese may well pump up their PEM production. Article below outlines state of play as of mid 2023.

Looks like the 2023 pause in FIDs for projects may accidentally have allowed ITM to get their house in order.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/worlds-largest-pem-green-hydrogen-project-announced-in-china-backed-by-4-5bn-of-investment/2-1-1479258

Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/power/south-korea-passes-1gw-of-hydrogen-fuel-cells-installed-for-power-but-market-not-gaining-momentum/2-1-1589507

This might not be good news for Ceres power given Doosan partnership.

Not sure how much licensing money that partnership is meant to generate. The above article isn’t very well written and slightly contradictory. I suspect a « bot »…. ai journalism still has some way to go.

Nice post Tommy.

Https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/turning-wasted-wind-into-clean-hydrogen/

Octopus energy CEO has talked about this and I believe octopus hydrogen has made some tentative steps. This document puts some figures on it and clearly demonstrates the case for hydrogen electrolysis in this context. This should be a prime driver for electrolysis growth in uk, kick start the green H2 revolution and be prime ITM market.

UK govt needs a bit of the Nike attitude “just do it”.

DS is Dennis Schultz CEO

Shell may be share holding in ITM but they are exploring multiple technologies and companies. They have a MW SOEC demonstrator in Bangalore from ceres.

I think we need the promised GW factory to be matched by GW scale orders for recovery.

Todays tweet that a 2mw electrolyser is en route to far east is interesting but this needs to be happening once a day to meet expectations/promises!

I think there are 3x100 MW orders on the books that we know about. Hopefully a good load of other smaller ones too.

DS is all about delivery. Any SP movement in advance of solid evidence of delivery at scale is speculation.

I agree. Bloom would be direct competitor for SOFC and SOEC but licensing model attractive for industrials wanting to pursue greener agenda and take advantage of IRA money. Conditions are tight though and may not be favourable for SOEC. Still to be finalised though.

Watch this space.

My apologies Titania but why should we be concerned about JD Chalmers conflict of interest?

The Weichai deal was only ever for SOFC. This covers SOEC also. The first SOEC deal. I don’t think there is a significant downside here.

Next step is to start to see some revenue income from the SOFC deals already in existence. Then we will start to get a clear understanding of the road to profitability and a better understanding of the true value here.

The big picture is that hydrogen as energy carrier and green hydrogen in particular makes even more sense in light of these “black swan@ events.

Any analysis suggests that over the last 2 years the certainty of hydrogen taking off has increased and the anticipated speed of take up has increased.

The financial situation of these companies to deliver this and the market appetite for risk are the big things to have changed.

Big picture is good but it is going to be tricky to pick the winners in this field due to the uncertainty I have described.

Https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/budget-2024-indias-budget-set-to-ignite-green-hydrogen-boom-with-strategic-fiscal-push/106848949

Ceres is ideally positioned for this. SOEC is the ideal electrolyser technology for fertiliser production and other high temperature uses as heat can be easily recycled and efficiency improved to 85% +.

In addition ceres has just delivered a 1MW electrolyser as demonstrator to shell in Bangalore.

They don’t currently have an electrolyser manufacturing partner. Perhaps an Indian manufacturer might be politic.

I totally agree. Respiratory viruses, flu and Covid in particular are rampant just now in UK hospitals.

Should get a boost to UNIVERSAL recruitment.

It seems blindingly obvious to us here that there is a major need for SNG but UNIVERSAL should provide the evidence base. It is starting to look that the P2s may follow on from UNIVERSAL. I hope I’m wrong but the next 6 weeks will be critical. Any trials will be best conducted in Winter.

Thanks. Very interesting. The science marches on and it certainly fits with synairgen’s proclaimed strategy.

All here are anxious and keen for updates from the company on how this is progressing.

Https://x.com/drericding/status/1742696166733631733?s=46&t=lUUs8mZ3DzN0LONpU_7P4w

My great frustration here is that another year passes and synairgen are nowhere to be seen. I bought in because it looked like the world needs synairgen. I don’t think that has changed and the cumulative results of ACTIV2, SPRINTER and other data eg COPD are collectively very persuasive.

Not sure if I’m missing something or if the rest of pharma is missing something. This may be a naive investment strategy. No real choice now but to sit it out.

This may not be good news for green hydrogen in China but probably good news for ITM and PEM electrolysers, which ramp up and down quickest of the 3 competing electrolyser technologies.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/problems-at-world-s-largest-existing-green-hydrogen-project-will-not-be-solved-until-late-2025-sinopec-admits/2-1-1577860

Thanks Doc. Agreed re: commentary. Dr Ding can sometimes be a bit alarmist and 10x increase f rom very low base is still not high. It’s the increase and trajectory that may be worrying. We have been here before though with variants that haven’t really broken through the immunity wall. Watch this trend though. In my mind this is the most worrying since omicron hit.

Re: masks. Universal wearing seems a far way off but in high risk situations with high risk people this may soon be sensible. With masks it is all about protecting others while protecting yourself. It is a matter of deep regret that this has become an issue of politics and freedom (individual). It really should be about common sense and respect for others in our community who may be more vulnerable.

Https://x.com/drericding/status/1733152912581316963?s=46&t=lUUs8mZ3DzN0LONpU_7P4w

There have been a few false alarms but it looks like this is for real. JN1 increasing in line with hospitalisation, ICU admissions and deaths.

Time to make sure your vaccinations are up to date and mask up in higher risk settings.

SP usually rallies a bit when Covid rises but what shareholders really need is solid news on these P2s.