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I agree. I’m struggling to recall the counter argument, as to why shorts should be allowed.

Something to do with market liquidity.

I seem to recall ITM telling us they wouldn’t be putting out RNS for smaller sales.

Having said that, this looks fairly significant. They did announce on twitter in January that they were shipping a Neptune unit to east Asia.

It does add another big name that ITMis doing business with. Totally agree with sentiment here. Onwards and upwards Dennis. Big announcements hopefully coming soon.

Re:share price

We need to remember the seismic change H2, SOFC and SOEC herald. There will be bad actors with much to lose from fossil fuel transition, both states and private individuals/companies. One only needs to look at the negative influence of fossil fuel lobbyists to get a taste of what is at stake and how far these actors may go.

It’s going to be a rocky ride. I’m not against fossil fuel companies taking a stake but beware those that are really just using « greenwash stalling » tactics.

Then of course there are the shortened, tampers and de-rampers.

Looking at ceres there has been a lot of transparency. Latest deal brings in £40+m in licence fees over 2 years. Royalties from licensing should start to flow in 2025. Only then will the business model be tested properly. Until then hold on to your seat.

Quite similar technology. Very different business models. Ceres just signed first SOEC manufacturing agreement last month with Taiwanese company. Bloom have their own manufacturing capability.

Blooms model much more capital intensive and they consequently have quite high debt. Ceres have no debt but at scale (beyond demonstrators) it is their manufacturing partners who would be closely involved in any deals.

Shell are playing the field. They also have ITM

Nice quote 1863.

Not entirely sure of the relevance here.

Potentially very important for ITM if it pans out as expected.

Thanks Jeff

I’m a little surprised SP hasn’t shifted with this but market seems to take little notice of future earnings potential ATM.

I saw with interest the post on twitter of the Doosan factory and its progression.

I guess if royalties and other income streams start to flow as anticipated the SP should follow.

I get the feeling there is time to see how things pan out before topping up.

FOMO was very 2021!

Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/german-ministry-halts-all-hydrogen-related-funding-approvals-in-wake-of-h2-nepotism-scandal/2-1-1601847

Not sure if material to ITM. Probably not, even in short term. May impact investment decisions more generally though.

Here’s my thoughts on P2s.

Synairgen clearly know what they want to do with these studies, yet here we are still waiting for details. Why? They have had plenty of time to work all the details out. All the while limited funds are draining away.

Speculation on my part but the only reason for being this slow is if other parties are involved. NIH, MRC, Jansen or other BP. Some kind of partnership on the P2s, particularly if pharma would be ideal and should see a bit of a re-rate in SP.

Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/where-will-it-be-cheapest-to-produce-green-hydrogen-ieas-new-interactive-data-tools-show-some-surprising-results/2-1-1559524

This is related to the IEA piece referred to below and shows that UK with wind and solar paired with presumably PEM us definitely a goer in the green H2 stakes. The results of UK « hydrogen auction » should be out soon. ITM hinted that this might be good news. They must have some confidence in the bids they are involved with. This coil potentially be a catalyst for upward SP movement.

I may be wrong but my recollection is that the shell refyne 100MW deal was preceded by a rather vague notification in which the specifics were not mentioned. I expect in the next 1-2 months who and where will become clear. I suspect the keeping quiet at this stage is at the request of other commercial parties to the deal.

I take this as very good news. Totally take your point about FIDs and no guarantees but it certainly puts ITM in the top spot for this « multi- hundred MW » contract should it materialise.

Momentum seems to be with ITM currently and I like their focus- more so than plug and Nel, their main competitors.

I don’t know if you saw the statistic that more than half our renewable energy projects are owned by sovereign wealth funds. No reason UK plc can’t get in on the act.

Not sure whether it will be good or bad for our current renewable companies- Greencoat uk wind, ORIT to name a couple of the smaller ones.

They aren’t doing too well at the moment with 70% tax and unable to write off new green investment against profits, unlike fossil fuel companies. To coin a new labour song/phrase « things can only get better ».

There is a conundrum here that I have not seen properly modelled.

We talk about the levelised cost of green hydrogen 3,5, 10 years in the future and different models come up with fairly wide range of estimates. $ 5-15 per kg and compare these with grey hydrogen and estimate £ 3-5 roughly though there were times in the last 2-3 yrs when green was cheaper.

What I haven’t seen modelled is the cost of grey hydrogen if we continue on the same trajectory with wars and political shenanigans causing price shocks with ever increasing demand but no increase in supply. I think the US government did the maths,ran it through some big computers and came up with what they have aptly called « inflation reduction act ». They didn’t call it a green deal but hard $ has driven their decision making. EU similarly pumping some fairly hefty cash, though perhaps per capita 1/3 of USA and in the uk zero ambition. Calls of « we can’t afford it ». No calls if we can’t not afford it. That is before you even start to estimate the costs of global warming to uk, EU and internationally.

We deserve better politicians, higher level political debate and greater ambition. We still have some top companies in green energy - ITM and ceres with world beating tech. Sadly stuck with a government that has been navel gazing for years.

I don’t know but if anyone knows please share.

Best suited to where waste heat can be harvested eg industrial and chemo cal processes. Ammonia production ideal. Pink hydrogen from nuclear potential serious application too. Less suited to intermittent renewable energy. Requirements for hour to hour matching of H2 production to new renewable energy source probably not ceres ideal space for SOFC.

Interesting that Delta are big in data centres. SOFC ideal for data centre micro grids.

Just my opinion. Market still very immature and conservative companies still needing reassurance of efficacy as well as efficiency.

I think this one is a long term hold. It’s going to take another couple of years for royalty revenue to build. Until then most of the companies revenue will depend on licensing deals. Another couple of deal in he next 12-18 months and we should be SP take off. Meantime any changes are likely to be speculative. Hard to know for sure but it looks like 150-170 may well be the bottom. Fingers crossed. I’m sure our technical investors will have a few words on that subject.

Thanks. Great read. Feeling positive about ceres model. Looks like a bargain at these prices.

This will likely hit SP tomorrow.

Perhaps an experienced trader could explain why today SP has dropped when ratio of buys to sells is roughly 3:2.

Is it because the label buy/sell is just algorithm and this data in LSE is incorrect?