RE: HOW HIGH.25 Aug 2024 09:06
A difficult question, the results of the substantial EPC reworkings are not known.
However, this from the original Kola DFS presentation..
"Industry leading operating costs: average cost of MoP delivered to Brazil of US$102.47/t, potential to be the lowest cost potash supplier to Brazil
NPV110(real) of US$1,452M and IRR1 of 17.2% on an ungeared, attributable basis
Long life: nameplate production target of 2.2Mtpa MoP over a 33 year life2
High operating margins: 75% average cash operating margin
Strong free cashflow generation: average LoM annual free cashflow of US$500M post tax, post commissioning
Second quartile pre-production capital intensity: US$2.1B on EPCM basis; capital intensity of US$956/t MoP
Additional upside potential: further opportunities to potentially improve and optimise the project have been identified by Kore and its consultants
* Based on life-of mine average MoP price for granular of US$360/t CFR Brazil and standard US$350/t CFR Brazil
** 23 years based on Ore Reserves and 6% Inferred Mineral Resource, and further 10 years based on Inferred Mineral Resources. Refer to Kore‘s market announcement dated 29 Jan 2019"
//// The big question is after financing, how much value is retained within the company? (also note the higher MOP price used in figures above $350)360, current market price is around $300pt).
My own take on this modest, if I can get 100% upside (which is more than safe bet) I would be happy. The "angel is in the detail" (sic), and I would revise my targets once the actual figures are released. To me this looks like a "no-brainer" at this stage where most of its inherent value is about to be released through EPC signing and Financing (FID).