Member Info for AlfaMale

Up and doon, up and doon, aye...

Ninga,

Would have to look up previous RNS' to get the detail on the hedges - it's all there if you have time to dig it out?

I think we are hedged until some time in 2019, in 2 lumps, around the $55 and $60 mark.

SK, the Silly Kraut ... yes, would have to include him, although there were some others, notably DBNO.

I had them filtered in the main, but the new LSE website now shows filtered posts in red boxes, and with all the plums here engaging with them on a daily basis, you can't get away from it.

Indeed, Ninga, indeed!

Oil might be $83, but remember that around 40-50% (IIRC) of our production is hedged at a much lower price, so the effect on PMO of a rise in crude is somewhat muted.

I think calls of 200p around November after the trading update on the basis of (some) debt reduction is a bit rampy. The Nov update is a quarterly update for Q3, where the average Brent price looks to be around the $75 mark, so maybe some debt reduction, but I wouldn't expect it to be more than $150m tops.

https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Brent+Crude+Oil

End of Q1 2019 is when I would expect to see a much larger dent in the debt pile (oil price dependent), and hence a better re-rating of PMO. However, if the Nov update is good, then this could get the juices flowing early. I'm also expecting PMO to get a lot more attention in the press during this time, which could definitely get momentum going.

The hedges will be rolled over at some point, and set hopefully at a higher oil price. Need to check expiry dates.

200p end of Q1 2019 perhaps!

Ninga, any drop in oil always leads to an exaggerated fall in PMO, as people panic sell in an attempt to lock in profit, with the hope of buying back in cheaper.

I believe you yourself were trading this until recently, given the somewhat predictable patterns being exhibited.

However, there is always the risk that stepping out when there is a small pull back can lead to the boat quickly leaving the dock again with you standing on the wayside with your pecker in hand! :))

Looks like this has happened to a few of the, until recently, loud mouths that were plaguing this board. Don't see so much of them these days...

You say there is much more to come - on what basis? What do you think a fair m/cap for PMO is?

Blimey!

BP earlier this week said the world is no longer at risk of running out of oil or gas for decades ahead. Existing technology is capable of unlocking so much fossil fuel that global reserves would almost double by 2050 to 4.8 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), the British giant said.

With new exploration and technology, the resources could leap to a staggering 7.5 trillion boe, it said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-demand/peak-demand-means-world-may-never-see-oil-at-100-a-barrel-again-idUSL8N12Z4ZJ20151105

Whaddaya know!

Chrome,
Thanks. Agree on potential pull back risk - all major indices are looking a bit toppy, although same was said around a year ago, yet they've continued to climb. Has to be a pull back at some point though.

Looking perky for a Friday afternoon.

PMO on a spike too... 138.47p

Filthy behaviour - taking a profit!!!

What % of your original holding have you top-sliced, if you don't mind my asking?

Nice one.

Looking like an orderly exit.

Probably cos you said "expecting big spike in next hour or so to wipe them all out."

So it did the opposite.

Looks like most are going to continue buying Iranian crude!

The rise in crude might not be as high as predicted.

Butch, don't encourage him.

And the EU shortly won't be able to tell us what to do either! Assuming May & crew don't totally balls it up.

So does that mean Iran's oil will still remain in the market?

If so, predictions of Brent in the $90 to $100 region later this year / 2019 Q1 might seem a bit rich...

Don't forget, some of the current gas output is also hedged.

Definitely looks like any rises are being muted/sold into.

PMO likely to have already had this discussion with (the larger) farm-in partners, IMO.

Hence the immediate $1 drop in crude!

Trump speaks, oil goes up, or down.

How many of his connections (family?) are trading oil off the back of his comments with forewarned knowledge of what he is about to say?! Wouldn't mind a slice of that action myself!