Member Info for AlfaMale

Glad I completely sold out at 142p, so can watch from the sidelines for a bit (makes a change!).

It's looking pretty ugly out there - commentary from industry is all over the place at the moment. Nobody knows what's going on.

The bigger picture with oil is that investment has been lacking for many years, and so whilst there might be a surplus currently, lack of investment will have to bite at some point medium term, and then we have Iran sanctions in Nov, although the US stance doesn't look rock solid on that, so who knows!

Couple this with potential large general market corrections, and throw Brexit into the mix, makes it very hard to call anything.

Good luck all...

Crikey - that is some hefty drop.

The 50/50 Oracle has spoken - and you all can't help yourselves but reply... if you think it is dumb, then put it on filter!!

PMO SP is currently dictated by the oil price. If oil goes down, PMO will follow.

Was looking at Brent futures for 2019 - averaging around mid $80's currently, not the $90+ that Yank on Bloomberg was talking about the other day, unless he's seeing something different...

lol

Members,

I'm just saying, there is more to the PMO valuation than just the oil price. I don't have all the answers you are seeking, but comparing the oil price to share price from years ago is pretty much meaningless without looking at a range of other factors.

Yes, we are pumping approx 70k/day from Catcher, but it is not 100% attributable to PMO, for a start.

Members, are you disregarding the number of shares in issue now vs when PMO was £5.50?

Never mind operations, profitability and cash flow!!

It's a bit simplistic to only compare the oil price vs PMO share price.

2022 ... when SeaLion is brought online with 100K/day production!! :)

ROS,
Was having same thoughts yesterday after looking at the recent spike in crude and PMO, thinking there might be a pull back. It all depends on whether crude keeps motoring! hmmm...

Had some strong rises in crude over the last few days.

Temporary pull back over next week or so, before pushing into the $90's in the lead up to November and Iranian sanctions?

Usual morning PMO sell off?

Ferret a bit twitchy lately - fully loaded up here?!

146p

Thanks asteris - why are you using Euros?!

ROS, agree on $100 and issues.

For one, at that level TD might start feeling like PMO's pockets are feeling a bit heavy, and go on a spending spree! (SeaLion etc).

An oil trader on Bloomberg was today saying that the futures oil market is clustering around the $90-100 levels.

Timing couldn't be better for PMO with increased production and debt reduction.

If oil maintains this price until morning, expecting a hefty spike in PMO tomorrow given that we fell back late in the day today. Lots of ground to make up.

150p tomorrow?!

$85

From 6 days ago, but don't recall seeing this reported here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/india-is-said-to-cut-imports-of-iranian-oil-to-zero-in-november-jmhy95z8

Originally there were rumours that India wasn't going to comply with US sanctions.

All adds to the flavour for increasing oil price...

Saudi's weren't joking then!!

Ferret,
The market needs to see the debt falling, and they need to see it in black and white, on the company accounts. Until we're down at a reasonable level of debt (3x EBITDA?) it will always be a ball and chain.

End Q1 2019 is the key time IMO, especially if oil is cruising around $100 by that time.

Trumpy won't be happy to hear this - cue another timely Tweet to rock the boat...

End of year, into Q1 2019, if oil is at $100 and PMO debt levels are seen to drop down to the $2bn level (and lower if oil $90+), then the PMO SP could be looking rather buoyant indeed...

How much FCF will PMO have at $100 oil (excluding any new Capex decisions)?