Member Info for AlfaMale

More immigration = more nurses required to look after the larger population.

Less immigration = ?

Every little helps after yesterday's drop of 500+ points.
:)

"Saudis don't want to spook the markets by pessimistic sound bites, unlike Trump. Big swings in poo aren't beneficial. They'll just slightly turn the screws when it matters most. Just ride it out it'll come right given time."

No opinion there, then.

Either way, the fact they they have already unwound such a large percentage of their longs is good news, as it should mean less downward pressure on crude from here.

DOW finished 400pts down, so could be rocky in the morning.

But looking like we've had a 4 day upswing of crude (WTI) so far... bouncing back gradually?

:)

Recent news...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46256117

G.O.D. (!),

If the trades are mostly small that you state are taking down the SP, and sentiment is PI driven then couldn't most of those trades just be PI's selling out? As you say, no TR-1's. Good point about the shorters, although the big guys play a complex game in the markets.

Don't forget, there has been a lot of publicity recently of hedge funds unwinding long oil positions - so it's not only PI's that drive, or are affected by, sentiment. Nobody wants to lose money. I was in two minds about getting back in after reading about these hedge funds selling down.

But, I agree that crude (and PMO), can bounce back quickly, especially after such a relentless drop (look at the crude charts!), so am all-in again for that reason. We have seen rapid turn-arounds many times in the past. I expect (hope!) we will see the same again soon, macro conditions dependent.

GL.

Hexagon - that's what I mean - if the market thinks PMO don't have the capability to pay down debt, then they are going to smack down the share price.

There is also general sector sentiment at play too, obviously.

Halfpenny - I don't think PMO will sell down any of Zama. If projected peak Zama production is 150k b/day, and PMO have a 25% slice, this will be a cash cow in future years just like Catcher, but a much larger field! Capex to overcome first, of course!

Goodolddays,

It's all about sentiment.

PMO breaks even around the $55-60 mark (don't quote me). If Brent crude drops from $86 down to $66, then a huge chunk of PMO's profitability disappears, and ability to pay down debt is vastly reduced.

Even if such a drop in crude might only be short term, the market will react accordingly and give highly-leveraged companies like PMO a slap in the face. Then the big players smell blood and start opening shorts, stop losses get triggered and down she goes...

But if the company is is good shape, and you think the oil price will be higher in future, then this has to be a buy.

I don't agree with the 'manipulation' theories.

Thank you, Marshall.

Good to be back. It's quite stressful selling all your shares and being completely out for a while, not knowing what direction the market is going to take. But things were looking a bit toppy back in early Oct, and having missed selling out previously on a spike only to see profit eaten away, this time I just sold out to lock in some gains! Luckily for me global events led to the oil price pulling back, and PMO with it.

Onwards and upwards from here...

Looks like the 3rd day of a rising crude price ...

Bodes well for a highly-leveraged PMO.

No need to panic!

But - what a drop, from 146p down to 81p over the course of 6 weeks!! Quite something to see.

Having sold out at 142p, I've been picking up a few blocks of shares as we went down. Didn't manage to call the bottom completely, but holding 36% more shares now than previously for no extra expenditure. Mustn't complain! :)

Will now sit back and let the Iranian sanctions kick in properly, and for OPEC to make some cuts to get the oil price back to a 'reasonable' level for all, and for PMO to report in 2019 Q1.

Zama drilling starting this month too.

Looking good! :)

Dow looking positive...

Members,

Glad to see your maths has improved of late :)

PMO M/cap £750m !

Had to pick a few up at this price.

Didn't expect PMO to drop this far back.

I don't see Brent staying down at this level for long.

Down 600pts at close.

Anyone got the support levels handy for Brent? ta.

DBNO ... The Sage of PMO & Brent.

LOL

I had a feeling API was going to show a build, given the oil price dropping almost $2 earlier this arvo.

The market always knows before you do!!

Budgie,

Don't forget that the FTSE has dropped 500points in the same Oct-November period and there have been global macro factors at play over this time period too.

Indeed PMO is a volatile stock. It's fairly closely correlated to the ups and downs in the Brent oil price. If you overlay a PMO chart on top of Brent (e.g using Yahoo Finance), the correlation is pretty obvious if you look at a 5-year chart, with some over/under shooting at either end, as one would expect in a market where humans participate!

Not too sure about the upcoming trading update. I think only a pay down of a decent chunk of debt will 'please' the market, and as you say, it could be followed by a drop. PMO could always pull a bunny out of the hat though, and the upcoming drills on Zama, and potential news on SeaLion financing could swing things.

I think the bigger oil picture will be the deciding factor here in the near-term. Whilst demand is at an all time high over 100mb a day, there is talk of over-supply and growing stockpiles. Who knows! API numbers tonight and EIA tomorrow might add some short term colour.

Looking at the drop in Brent just now, I reckon odds on API will show a build!