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wow that Tin price retrace didn't last long. $30,995 reported last night.

I suspect that this means that ATM will break 6p easily today.

Still pretty shocking to discover that if I was an institution I would be the 3rd largest holder.

At some point the message is going to filter out and some major institutions will want a piece of the action. They may be holding back to see if they can somehow get in without having to go via the markets but if not and they are forced to build a stake like everyone else you can expect to see the SP double at least.

In time, yes the MC could be 500M

up 1.5% from the day before

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/tin-price

actually to be more precise:-

"The belief that it must follow is based on assumption that if it did not traders could buy lots of tin on a 3-month contract, NOT have to store it for 3 months, but in 3 months time have the chance to sell it 'now' at higher prices - i.e a relatively easy win for not doing much apart from making the commitment to buy."

the implication is that people are being forced to pay a premium for wanting it right away, rather than in 3 months time. In many things this is not unusual, think ryanair boarding - you pay extra to board 'now' - but the question here is why does anyone think that it will be any different in 3 months time - i.e. if in june you want to buy 'now' you may still be having to pay $3K more than if they were prepared to accept a 3 month lead time.

It does not seem unreasonable to offer lower prices if you are prepared to wait - thus if you are assuming that just because the 3 month price is less than it is for immediate delivery that this means that the Tin market thinks that the tin price is going to be $3k less in 3 months time - as I explained above this might not follow. The belief that it must follow is based on assumption that if it did not traders could buy lots of tin, store it for 3 months and then sell it on at higher prices.

This probably happens but the if it is only done at very low levels it may not be enough of a tail to wag the dog. It all depends on what fraction of the tin is being bought by people who actually want to use it, and what fraction by speculators. As the worldwide economies pick up and manufacturing of electronics, renewables and battery equipment picks up I suspect that quite a lot of the Tin is actually being taken by the manufacturers rather than traders.

plus there are other issues of diffusion across the membrane

USD 27,300 per tonne yesterday. From memory ATM receives something like 93% of the contained tin value in its 60% concentrate

yes watch the podcast that Troajan posted

There is zero chance that there will be any kind of cartel agreement for Vanadium. About 5 minutes of every Vanitec meeting is taken up with describing precisely what cannot be discussed there. They have a lawyer on hand to stop anyone who makes any suggestion about future pricing of the commodity.

operastar - Well Highview got a big public grant last year so I expect that they are also ruled out if you are going to be that picky about first of a kind. Furthermore the round trip efficiency of the Highview plant is much lower than an electrochemical battery because of all the losses due to thermodynamic irreversibility of taking cryogenic fluids around a large delta-T thermal cycle, plus vorticity in the turbines. I used to have a cryogenic system that would give you microWatts of cooling at sub 1K for every ten kilowatts of power you had to put in at room temperature.

It is very interesting to understand the geopolitical background to the International Tin Council - it was the implosion of this that ultimately led to the closing down of the Uis mine 30 something years ago, nothing really to do with ore grade or production costs, when there are loads of countries dumping tin stocks they discovered they did not really need it tends to make it difficult to mine the stuff.

Troajan - that podbean podcast is incredibly interesting.

Idiot Mkx - Highview power is not Hydrogen you d1p****

pekingduck - I think that you must be mistaken - as you can see the V1 pit is only 60 metres deep at its maximum extent and this will not be achieved until phase 3 of mine development. We are only at phase 2 now and the V1 pegmatite should be no deeper than 20m below the surrounding levels now.

https://youtu.be/Yktctgx4Krw?t=690

Loudspeaker - BMN have been actively leveraging their position via Mikhail who is in charge of the Vanitec energy storage committee - as Gambit can confirm although Alberto goes to those same meetings and sometimes contributes he is not in the same position of running the show and coordinating with every VRFB manufacturer in existence bar one (the munich guys of Voltstorage, who I had to tell about the Vanitec ESC at one of the energy storage conferences in 2019).

This means that it is Mikhail who is the go to guy for them when they are trying to secure Vanadium supply - indeed I saw it first hand when Scott McGregor (RedT) first approached Mikhail at the committee dinner in 2018 - it was evident to me then that Scott have never spoken to Mikhail before which chimed precisely with my opinion of his depth of strategic planning. For RedT the rest turned out to be history.

So although you may not currently be able to make out the hand that is operating the show from above, you can be confident that it is there. If not then you have to ask yourself why Bushveld Energy are proceeding to build an entire electrolyte factory when they could easily just ship the stuff to a partner and get it turned into electrolyte there. Why go to all that trouble if they are not 100% confident that they will be able to sell the end product. These guys don't do stuff for laffs.

it does look like it jimbo - could be that's why they've had to let the price move up, run out of cheap shares to grab sub 5p

it's a pity if Matthew at Crux is trading his in-depth approach for clickbait infatuated rehashing by William Hughes of the Fergus Cullen interview conducted a few days earlier.

Who is this fabled Fergus Cullen - internet research turned up nobody with any background in tin - it turns out it is someone who lives in Bali and goes under the name of twitter name of '@trader_ferg' who is 'in uranium, nat gas, oil and tankers', presumably when he is not on the beach.

At least on twitter he admits he is only interested in "sharing my research and thoughts about trades I'm in or considering."

In his interview he caveats his knowledge similarly: "The extent of my knowledge on tin until recently was that it kicked off the bronze age (bronze is 1/8 tin and 7/8 copper) and it was used for cans. Ever since this little market came on my radar, I’ve been playing catch up."

Metatron - exactly - it is hugely more expensive to operate underground than it is on our very shallow opencast deposits

rugs - it wasn't just the trade last night it was also this morning. Two systematic attempts to present the SP as falling when it wasn't. Less than 100 pounds on each trade. I do hope that these were not deliberate attempts to manipulate the market.