Member Info for Alfacomp

Ekrane, are you asking if FM is aware of the manipulation of this share in this market ?

If so then to say yes might imply that he has evidence of manipulation - somewhat akin to answering the question 'when did you stop beating your wife ?'

I do not think that I or anyone else would wish to put him into that potentially difficult position so all that can be said is that he is very much up to speed with everything that has been going on here.

I think it is quite possible that BMN will move off AIM at some point between now and the JSE listing - something about SETS isn't it ? We may not have too long to wait to get away from this obvious manipulation.

I make it that there was an excess of around 3.8M more sells than buys yesterday. Average price for sells was 27.204p.

Now we see a trade at the end of play yesterday of 3.2m at 27.3875p. Was is the betting that in 12 hours we shall discover that Vaneck have managed to get another 3.2M shares ?

if you actually look at the RNS that that S&P article relates to you discover that there is ZERO reference to Yellow Dragon being from China

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bushveld_minerals/news/rns/story/xe9zyzr

Apparently we now call this fake news. I prefer to call it made up bol****s

Great summary of the movements of the Yellow Dragon, BBN !

don't wish to make any profit in the next 2 weeks, please sell on as soon as possible, there's others here that are waiting to top up so can you take your profit, hand half of it back to the market makers and move on. Thanks !

...

Thus yesterday's selling, if true, huge yet only yielding a very modest 2% drop, represents a valuable consolidation before the next step up. Vaneck have yet another 9.5M to go so we may get multiple more 10%+ days in the next couple of weeks.

Well well what an interesting development - it would appear that Vaneck have woken up just in time, and unless there are some strange share movements going on behind the scenes, may have never actually gone below their 4M shareholding and on Tuesday added 3M to the 500K they bought on Monday.

From a trade balance perspective much of the large scale story now revolves around the interpretation of the 2x3M trades that have so far been reported for Tuesday (at 10:53:30 and 16:46:40) - clearly one of these has now got to be Vaneck's Buy (I reckon the later trade) and the other is most likely going to be a block of shares injected from a tame seller source.

Taking into account all the other trades for Tuesday, including the 2.1M+ of trades reported only yesterday I come up with a Tuesday excess of Buys of only 400K. Add this to the 2.6M excess of Buys (500K of which from Vaneck) on Monday and this appears to leave the MMs requiring 3M or so shares. as of the end of Tuesday.

Going into this month it had appeared that MMs had managed to accumulate a nice little block of some 5M cheap shares - it is hard to know for sure if this persisted until the start of this week as a series of complex triplet trades around the 8th and 9th of October can be interpreted in many different ways, however it would seem likely given the simple observation that MMs like to buy shares cheaply if they are then planning to sell them at higher prices.

Yesterday, however was a very strange day - with multiple extended periods when it was possible to buy shares at lower prices than you could sell them for. This situation seems less irrational when you appreciate that it is different Market Makers involved in these two sorts of transactions, and for some reason they choose not to transact business directly. The Market Maker wishing to buy shares is being forced to offer seemingly irrationally high prices, possibly whilst the MM selling shares looks on chuckling. It takes other market participants, such as us, to help transfer the shares from the MM with them to the MM wanting them.

Crazy inverted markets such as these naturally make the job of the trade analyst harder, as does the hiding of trades from the market for extended periods. That said, the balance of trades for yesterday appears to show an excess of around 3.8M Sells .... so job done - the MMs have got the 3M shares they needed, right ?

Well, no - firstly we'll have to wait and see if any further delayed trades pop up today, as this of course can change the interpretation. Secondly whilst it may seem disappointing that there APPEARS to be 3.8M more Sells than Buys yesterday (6.1M Sells vs 2.3M Buys !!!) and that this now covers the excess buys of previous days - if true this is actually a better situation than if the excess of Buys had NOT been covered. In that case you could bet your last pound that the MMs would go hunting for shares simply by moving the price down later.

Pdub - thanks for the summary and no doubt editing out all the bits where Justin Waites tells everyone that he sold out of BMN at 2p because he was 'bored' - talk about showing off about your own stupidity !

yesterday's 400K at 15:24 (27.50p) looks like a BUY

is being mugged.

faramog this deal removes any obligation to pay anything out of next years profit

Gr33ning - Vaneck are not that smart

Sloppy - well good luck to them. I hope that they receive a slightly more enthusiastic response than Ferro-Alloy Resources who have had a FAR from exciting time. 3 Trades all of last week, woohoo !

I wonder how much money the stock market makes in fees out of companies like these.

biganuf - well I'm sure that they immensely powerful forcefields inside their organisation that prevent the investment arm talking to the index tracking arm and vice versa ad nauseam, not.

Start a fund, call it an Index, sound important, wait for the punters to roll up, etc, repeat

Harts - because Vaneck tracking of their own rare earth strategic metals index (MVIS® Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index (MVREMXTR)) would oblige them to hold 3.52% of the funds value in Bushveld Shares. Until yesterday that had been zero, but they still had 4.5M shares knocking around from the last time BMN was in the index and this equated to 0.92% of the funds value.

Trades yesterday were strongly suggestive of Vaneck actually selling down the 4M that they had held as of Monday so I believe that they have now given themselves the job of having to find the full 17M in the next few days.

Why the volte-face, and how so before todays RNS ? Those are questions you would have to put to them. I don't understand why they ever considered leaving BMN out of their Index - perhaps some lithium-ion play went belly up.

NickyP - that does appear to indeed be another huge development.

I estimated that Vaneck had actually closed out on their previously held position of 4.5M shares yesterday. It would appear that they are now in the position of having to come back to the market to buy 17.3M shares.

This may be why we are seeing what we are seeing this morning.

spot on JMC

In all previous occasions where a) trades in the market have been correlated with b) Vaneck reports the sequence is as follows:

Day 1 - Actual trades (a) take place
Day 2 - Vaneck reports the change in position on their spreadsheet
Day 3 - The Vaneck spreadsheet is actually published (b)

Thus market trades on Monday are reported today, wednesday and Tuesday trades will be reported tomorrow. So we may well get confirmation tomorrow that their position has dropped by 4 million or perhaps all the way to zero.

jimbo - I don't think so there's an excess of 3M buys through the day. 3M taken from Vaneck for today's trades (subsequently punted on via an inter-MM transfer) plus a million to cover the excess of buys yesterday after 3pm and you have 4M shares that could well see the end of the great REMX geniuses

thanks for explaining the process fatbanker