Member Info for AlexHodler

I have a negative experience with Vodafone kept it for a long time and the divi only compensated part of the losses, I was hoping for a good pension share but I guess I was wrong, i still have the holding with automatic re investment, i have ofter thoughts of changing horse but really difficult to choose ......I bought some shares in Doric Nimrod 2 so far good shares stable and 17% dividend in quarterly installments......I m Happy with Thungela so far.

I find that the spread erodes any short term gains in small cap UK I trade small cap USA with a much lower spread and more possibilities to make gains.. I m into Thungela for Long(two years hopefully) the important is that the share price decrement does not erode all the divi,

South Africa jan-sept 2022 exported 14 mil tons to India and 10 milion Ton to Europe( Now second world market for S/A Coal) Europe imports have increased more than 5 folds in 2022 while india Imports have decreased constantly in the last three years(from 24 mil ton 2020 to 14 mil ton2022) Russia is flooding the market with Coal likely lowering prices to increment their market share in key import countries.

Thanks for the exaustive answer EdwarfSheaton. do not forget that China and India can get cheaper Cargoes throug Russia as they are not part of the Embargo and Have a history of provision contracts with Australia....

A new cold weather front front is cominf from Russia to europe around the 7th of february this will force operators to maintain the Coal power pants operational........ waiting for divi do you guys know when they will declare and divi day?

The northern emisphere is getting cold and a few coutries have given green light to switch on the coal run previously mothballed plants, lets remember that Europe after the Ukraine event developed a sensitivity on Energy Safety Policies, including granting the utilization of Coal in the coutries energy mix and preservation of gas into underground gas storage the wells that provide with the stored gas are all equiped with downhole safey valves that clese the gas in case of surface sudden rupture these vaves are tiically set between 150 to 300 mts below the surface.

We need re assurance from Management that action is being taken to mitigate the loss of rail transport that affected export in recent times, the also need to look for a long term plan for example coal to Hydrogen plant and train system(Germany alreadyrunning their second generation thydrogen trains) this will cut out any copper stealing as the train will be self sufficient for 1000 km and coal to produce Hydrogen largely and cheaply available..

Guys what is the Coal breakeven price for Thungela including SA taxation?
See below estimates(and recent year pricing) from UBS Report

Thermal Coal NEWC (6,000 kcal/kg) fob, $/t
2019:76
2020:60
2021:136
2022:353
2023:300
2024:188
2025:113
2026:100

TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT DRAX WILL FIRE UP THE COAL POWER PLANTS IN UK... AS THE COLD SNAP CONTINUES..

The strike problems were solved a while ago, the latest issue was related to lack of spare parts for the Chinese fabricated locomotors, and this can be fixed...Ed .. i m not in Thungela management team but the spirit of an enterprise must be based in optimization of underging processes, there are always solutiont to problems...

Sorry about the mispelling, Emirati Helicopters go in daily trips to monitor the area now. especially for night missions.

investing for the benefit of the company is not wrong, lots of mining companies in Africa(due to lack of funds) invest in electric power generation and transport to be able to export timely their goods... it makes sense. you just have to fing a mutual beneficial agreement.

The latest issues were with the spare parts of the chinese made Train locomotors, they should invest in the railway asking for a disconunt on transportatation fees based on the money invested, or they need to apply a quality control contract that will decrease the cost of transport if the loads are not transported as per shedule, on this they should be taking action..as a lesson is learned...this made them loose big money usually managers after such event run after action review and consider mitigating factors...

There are also other minor Macro factors in play, the reopening of China after Covid includng the planned construction of new coal plants in future, The tensions present in the strait of Hormuth (where I live) if Iran starts to block the strait where 30% of seaborne oil transits happens the Coal price will jump to the stars (there is a worrisome coalition forming between Russia and Iran Now, this could be an unwanted outcome that would support both countries). I also trust/think the management has learned from recent mistakes.

hI Ed, hope you are well, The recent price decline and the Macro environment( prospective price of Coal in a multiyear view)and the presence of a good dividend policy adding a low breakeven coal price. These are the factors that i considered.

STEELMONKEY i m a recent investor, there are headwinds coming the major is the expectation of a lower market coal price for the next months, a second is the handling of the bottleneck of transporting the coal to the harbour, third is the achievement of a sustainable production target, i m sure the local environment is very difficult to handle but if you want the investors to stick around you need to set mamagerial pubblic targets to mitigate the bottlenecks, and deliver on the production targets, not having reached the production targets in the best period of coal price is surely not Optimal. GLA

I did another top up today ex dividend coming soon .. and re rating going to continue, at the moment there is no alternative airplanes fto substitute A380 in market if trend continues like this.. it will all be good- GLA

Today Lukoil completed the sale of their refinery in the Island of Sicily, the unit was sold to Cyprus company Argus(one of its subsidiaries)... this highlights thar there is movement from both sides , this is good news for Eurasia.....hopefully it will be our turn soon.....GLA

Any Cease fire in Ukraine would be good for everything beside thinking about the investment case. We need peace .... the long walk always start with the first step.......

They will not seize unfriendly assets they will confiscate this means they will have power to use the asset or re sale the asset as per their desire, we are talking about Russian soil expoitation fairly easy to do, it looks like this is only between Germany and Russia at the moment, but a precedent has been created and Russia will want to have an edge to protect their international assets. I leave to your imagination the rest.