Member Info for alexeliasson

My apologies, here's the link: https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/nigeria-could-sign-off-exxon-oil-asset-sale-seplat-within-weeks-nuprc-2024-05-02/

Read the news again, "the options" seems to be in regard to guarantees about decommissioning i.e. our best case is playing out. Shell was also notified about similar, last week.

"He did not spell out what these options were but said the law requires money to be set aside for decommissioning, host community development and environmental remediation."

NIGERIA'S OIL REGULATOR NUPRC HAS INVITED EXXON, SEPLAT TO FRIDAY MEETING TO PRESENT TWO OPTIONS FOR ASSET SALE APPROVAL - NUPRC/Reuters News

NIGERIA'S OIL REGULATOR SAYS EXXON'S OIL ASSET SALE TO SEPLAT COULD BE APPROVED "IN LESS THAN TWO WEEKS" - NUPRC

Looks like the deal is getting done. Also looks like a couple of percentages of the field will be handed over to NNPC. Nevertheless, we're looking at +150-200% production raise depending on what scenario that plays out, without any share dilution whatsoever. The last point is very important, IMO.

Congrats, gents!

Here's my back-of-the-envelope numbers on GKP: https://i.imgur.com/IMf1kt5.png

Numbers are based on:

- ITP closed the entire 2024, and exports open in 2025.

- Not reaching the level of production in 2024 nor 2025 that GKP indeed reached in March 2023 (+55k bop/d)

- Brent at $80 (almost $90 now)

- Receivables not repaid (amounts to 70% of entire enterprise value of repaid)

Probably looking at 50-70% dividend yield on current share price in a reopening scenario, mirroring historical payouts.

Front-running Putup and Broad: my numbers are _below_ analyst consensus i.e. I've used an additional margin of safety. I've talked to two analysts and no one have it below $200m net profit if exports are open i.e. +60% of market cap.

(Yes, I know cost pool is coming down - but it's still hard to envision anything substantially below the aforementioned numbers the coming years).

Both of you are obviously knowledgeable, but you're also very reluctant to state what you actually forecast yourselves.

I'd say the board would be very humble to learn your numbers in a reopening scenario, and I hope you guys go out of your comfort-zone on this topic. Cheers.

Closed flat on optically (very) weak results today, tells you all you need to know about the underlying strength of the ticker; probably one or two funds on their way onto the share register - or something bigger that doesn't need an introduction.

It's because of Underlift/Overlift accounting - adjusted for this the revenues was almost unchanged:

"after adjusting for underlift and overlift oil volumes, 3M 2024 adjusted revenues of $236.3 million, against $255.6 million in 3M 2023"

Wrote a huge post and LSE just cut out 75% of it. What a frustration. Trying again next week.

SeaTank8300,

Thanks for your insights. You're completely on-point that Seplat is perhaps the cheapest integrated (up- & midstream) oil- & gas company that is listed, world wide.

After a meeting with management last month, I'm delighted to share these news on the topic of MPNU:

Royalties for shallow water is 17% i.e. lower than onshore.

Seplat is a huge winner of PIA, when that get implemented the coming years:

- "smaller fields" onshore (

Appreciate the input! On the topic of API-blend: how did all the IOCs + Kirkuk manage to send oil at the same time for years, considering the difference in API. (I recognize there's a difference - I'm just not simply savvy enough understanding how it works coming to the pipeline).

Although not all lines inside of Iraq has been repaired just yet, the ITP on Turkey side still holds 1.6million barrel/day capacity as per original design. From my understanding, the KRI pipes (and there are several) to Peshkabur is still intact - but the domestic Iraqi's are not. Assuming everything is repaired, can they co-feed the ITP from several sources? From my understanding, NOC doesn't have 1.6m b/d capacity nor that ambition.

Are you saying that all GKP/DNO/SNM sales will continue to be local via trucking, even though the PSCs are either honoured or transferred and exports are restarted? If that's the case, that's huge. Haven't read that take just yet.

Thanks

Apparently I'm unable to post links.

According to company guidance we're looking at ~$40m of FCF this year (lower end) and thus the net cash position should reach at least $120m by year end. With that in mind, I do believe we're looking at dividends already in Q3 this year; 10-14% of market cap can be distributed and they will be in the same financial position as when the year started.

If we look at the years 2021 and 2022 their realised oil price was $49 and $74 respectively, and production hovered at 40-44k bop/d. That was sufficient to produce $122m and $266m respectively. In a reopening scenario, it's hard to envision anything less than +50% dividend yield in 2025. GKP will probably earn more in FCF in 2025 than its entire enterprise value going into the year 2025. Wild stuff, to be honest.

On the other hand, the ITP might be shut-in forever or contracts heavily renegotiated to the downside.

With that in mind, I consider GKP being one of the best risk/return cases available in the market.

Are my numbers similar to yours? Let me know. Cheers

Hi gents,

Entered GKP in the mid 90's a couple of weeks back. Sharing an excerpt from my sheet below: building my numbers on company guidance for 2024 and then using equity research consensus for 2025 and 2026. Not only does it look really cheap, the case works even if the ITP is shut-in permanently. IMHO.

Link: [LINK REMOVED]

Thanks 'Surprised' - it was that video link I tried to publish here, but I guess it was redacted because I'm a new user.

Very interesting and somewhat unique to see a ten minute long praise by an actual Oil Minister aimed at a single company. Mr. Brown hinted at deep offshore and bolt-on acquisitions (small wells) and Mr. Heineken hinted that there will be a lot more inactive wells for sell in the future. Not a difficult puzzle to make...

Good luck ahead everyone, cheers.

It seems as a couple of local newspapers have snapped up that Mr. Heineken (Oil Minister) essentially promised that the MPNU acquisition will be sealed within short.

The full YouTube clip, however, I doubt a lot of people have seen. It currently has 152 views (can be double views from single users) and the Oil Minister not only double downs on the deal to be completed within soon, he holds a ten minute speach as to why companies explicitly as Seplat are the role model of the Nigerian oil industry, and should act as a lead in the roll-up of inactive wells from "majors". I see none of the news agencies mentioning that Mr Heineken also mentioned that the actual country president is committed to seal the acquisition.

Link: [LINK REMOVED]

With that commitment in mind, I'm sharing to you my sheet with my numbers. I'm making very conservative MPNU production numbers and I also make safety margins on ANOH and Sapele. I assume the low range on guided legacy production as well. However we look at it, I see +150% to +200% upside when MPNU is sealed and ANOH is active. I do see another $100m in dividends from AGPC in a couple of years, but it's not in my model currently.

Take a look at it, and let me know what you guys think. Link: [LINK REMOVED]

Disclosure: Holding 330 000 shares, of which 50 000 was acquired this morning. 280 000 shares with an average entry of 79p (dividends deducted).