Member Info for alexeliasson

Current valuation:

In the above matrix I assume ANOH startup H2 2025 and MPNU per January 1th, and only 50k boepd per day for MPNU throughout the year (i.e. lower production than the lowest known number as of last month, which was approx. 54k per day for MPNU's 40% share).

If we assume the same dividend payout ratio as the last 4 years, we're looking at at least 10% dividend yield for 2025.

https://i.imgur.com/XkRQMTp.png

https://i.imgur.com/cD6cFwL.png

Still a bargain IMHO.

To build on the previous article by user 'Superiore' (thanks!):

This will be the first FLNG project in Nigeria and they reached government approval and commenced FID this year. The interesting part is that the "20 year feedstock" to the FLNG will come from OML 104. OML 104 is part of the MPNU portfolio that we are acquiring and historically all the gas was flared i.e. not commercial. MPNU only ambition was to produce liquids from OML 104.

If we use the data points that are public from this new FLNG project (annual volume etc.), 40% ownership and a $1.5 margin this very project alone will bring $61m net profit to Seplat per year. Put a 10x multiple on that and that's 30% of market cap, for something that is never discussed when it comes to Seplat.

Obviously, I'm not arguing we should add $600m mcap on this news - I'm simpy saying that Mr. Brown is on point when he says that the gas opportunities in Nigeria are enormous. Often long contracts with take-or-pay mechanics, and low royalties.

As there's not a Q3 YoY table in the report, here are the numbers:

Revenue: +12%

EBTIDA: +64%

Operating Profit: +80%

Cashflow From Operations: +90%

Operational excellence.

Wow, the new Abiala field, which Seplat has a 95% farm-in, will reach 5,000 (!) bopd already in Q1 2025.

Much larger production than what I had in my numbers.

20% Dividend increase. But, that's only a start:

"...we are pleased to announce a 20% increase in the core quarterly dividend and note that this is reflective of the strength of the underlying business. The increase does NOT factor in the organic (ANOH) and inorganic (MPNU) growth opportunities that the company is currently pursuing."

Substantially increased dividend in 2025 is a no-brainer IMHO.

Overall, the report was solid today. Reading between the lines (no additional debt needed and increased dividend) I'd argue the final consideration of MPNU is below $400m. ANOH delay is a disappointment, but to be honest, not that substantial at the moment as all eyes are on the MPNU deal.

Positive tone in the RNS all-around.

Wow, congrats all! 32 months of waiting...

Just want to reiterate what the President said on their Independence Day on October 1st: "Ministerial approval will come days after it has been passed by regulators."

Good luck all,

Yesterday, the largest shareholder of Seplat - Maurel & Prom - stated the following yesterday:

"During his Independence Day speech on 1 October, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced that the

acquisition by Seplat Energy (in which M&P holds a 20.46% stake) of the conventional offshore assets of

ExxonMobil in Nigeria would receive ministerial approvals very soon, in line with the recommendations of

the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (“NUPRC”). As a result, the transaction is now

expected to close by year-end 2024"

Link: https://i.imgur.com/i3G9AVT.png

Earlier this week, NUPRC announced 31 new oil blocks up for licensing, and they carry the new PIA framework as well. On Twitter, at the same time, NUPRC tweeted the following photos:

https://x.com/NUPRCofficial/status/1846774753970856090

First photo is with the Regulator, Seplat & Exxon. Looks like Roger Brown is out of the freezer, for sure.

The dual listing in Lagos closed at 5217 yesterday, setting a new ATH. It equals 247p this morning.

All the best,

Another day of limit up (+10%) in Nigeria.

Have a good weekend fellas, hopefully the deal will be sorted before year end. Bless!

Brent +5% and rockets are unfortunately going into Israel from Iran; and everyone understands that Israel will respond - respond hard.

BuzzThomas,

I know you're asking that in a cynical way (considering your post-history here), but I'll answer you anyway:

100% of net profit is to Seplat in the Lockbox from 1th of January 2021 (effective date) to May 2023. May 2023 the Lockbox allocation was changed, but how it was changed is unknown. As Seplat wasn't a part in the arbitration claim, it's hard to envision a new deal were Seplat forfeited 100% of the Lockbox post May 2023.

Were probably looking at a final consideration below $400m for over 400 million of barrels of oil - that's also is producing.

An absolute steal.

This post on Twitter (X) is highly interesting, as it points out that not only is the deal completely non-dilutive; the actual consideration for approx. 400 MMBOE might very well be nothing (or peanuts). I would argue that the market has low to zero understanding about the Lockbox-setup, and thus represents a huge upside potential.

https://x.com/_NameValue_/status/1841027781368349126

Here we have it boys, a couple of minutes fresh:

“As such, the EXXONMOBIL/SEPLAT onshore well divestment will receive ministerial approval in a matter of days, having been concluded by the regulator, NUPRC, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA.” President Tinubu on Oct 1. 2024

The Lagos listing of Seplat had one day of 'Limit up' trading the day before the ExxonMobil announcement this week, followed by another gain the next day. Considering the falling oil price and that major oil companies are in a slump the last month; the trading in Seplat is exceptionally good. This somewhat resembles the trading that went on ~2 weeks before the NNPC dropped the case on ExxonMobil earlier this spring/summer; sending the stock up materially.

With all this said, I increased my (already big) position today with 10%. Trying to be opportunistic here. I believe we are close.

ExxonMobil today commits to a huge deepwater offshore investment in Nigeria:

https://x.com/SadeeqKurbe/status/1839177578516566503

It has been previously vocalized by ExxonMobil, but also the Nigerian O&G Minister, that a sale of MPNU were one of the main conditions Exxon had put in place, for this new investment to be possible. In other words, this is a very positive read-through.

Somewhat surprised, but obviously delighted, to learn that Seplat presented at the Pareto Oil & Gas Conference yesterday. The Nordics, especially Norway, have many O&G companies with good to high valuations - and a substantial investor community.

Excerpt: https://i.imgur.com/xIevr4m.png

From my recollection this is the first time NNPC publicly acknowledges that they are financially strained, to the extent that it impacts its operations.

https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1830311761905357244

Probably lacking financial strength to compete with Seplat on some future fields/"targets" and, hopefully, less incentivized to keep the MPNU blockade going. Let the deal through and Seplat will increase output to 2020 levels within 18 months again, IMHO. WIN/WIN.

The regulator himself posted a meeting with Exxon/Seplat/NUPRC on Twitter a couple of hours ago. Seems cheerful all-around.

https://x.com/NUPRCofficial/status/1829182095085670479

Nigerian regulators said they expect to formally consent to Exxon Mobil Corp.’s sale of its oil and gas assets to Seplat Energy Plc within four months, ending a hiatus that has stalled the conclusion of a transaction that was first announced in February 2022.

The approval process should be completed within the 120-day legal timeframe, the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Monday.

Comment: I doubt it's 120 days from today, but rather from the day the legal dispute was dropped (between NNPC and Exxon). Furthermore, it can be approved on 'Day 90' and doesn't have to be on the very last day.

In other news, OIL is up +3% today.

If we assume ~15% annual decline since Jan 2021 the current production levels (40% Seplat) is approx 55-60kbopd. When Seplat starts investing in the fields again, we'll probably reach 80-90k again within 18 months.

Assuming additional 55kbopd in 2025 from MPNU (low range), ANOH, Sapele and Abiala: this is a 2.6x p/e ticker with double digit dividend yield for next year. I don't understand anyone selling here.

Friendly reminder, although the deal is delayed the profits are accumulated into the lockbox i.e. Seplat.