Member Info for Alessandro

This is an extract from the Daily Mail:
Having survived all of this Cowgill’s departure with ‘immediate effect’ – words used sparingly by the boards of public companies – points to more trouble under the bonnet. The decision to replace him comes amid a review of ‘governance and controls’.

Bert - It will be in the first two weeks of June. Hope no surprises there

I agree, the share price could fall below 100p in the near term, but I think the company is solid and I a suitable CEO will be appointed, probably with experience in a FTSE100 company.
This is a good learning, to buy good stocks when exceptional events happen. Something told me to wait before buying JD but anyway we are in the game and we play accordingly.

I hope this has nothing to do with the delayed FY results or the Foot Asylum thing

I am hoping that 940 millions of pretax profit is translated in a substantial excess cash to pay a considerable special dividend. I think the stock is well oversold at this level, nothing stops a stock to go way oversold. As long as you are happy the price you bought then it shouldn't concern too much. I was in at 160 and averaged down at 130 to 145. With that I am done with averaging down honestly

Jock: I wouldn't worry having you bought at 194p. We will see JD trading at that level and beyond. At the price you bought, JD would have a fPE of about 15, which still makes the stock look cheap.

Unilever will benefit from the easing of the raw material inflation which is partly due to the post-lockdown so called "bottleneck effect". This should easy in a relative short timeframe. I believe that the energy price will come down too, due to the fact that the spike in energy price was first seen at the easing of lockdowns around the world. War was a part contributor to the spike in energy price. The latter contributor to energy inflation has uncertain timelines. Definitely energy is undergoing a slow and profound change, in my view energy will not be as cheap as hydrocarbons for a good decade or two.
Interest rates are very hard to predict. I can't see govs rise them too much or the economy will melt down. I am convinced that lots of inflation is due to money printing rather than cheap borrowing. And that the excess of cash will not be recovered through taxes but will result in a general inflation. Money printing is a contributor to inflation that will never be mitigated. Interest rates have no place to increase significantly, not being a major player in the inflation we are seeing.
Unilever has to hold on dearly to its consumers, trying to avoid as much as possible to switch to cheaper alternatives or cheap stores. Although I can see a faint presence of UL products in discount shops.
Unilever share price should return to see better days, maybe in 2 years or so. Brokers seem to have a short term view.

Peter, thanks for your feedback. I can only see the share price to increase from here and I think it is a good investment too, I did a far share of research based on a number of metrics.
Historically the PE of JD has been low, I don't expect my investment to double (I bought in at 145p) but I see 180-200p easily achievable in 12 month or less. I am surprised by the broker rerating's, but I can only explain with a general sentiment driven by inflation of materials and finished goods and reduced disposable income

Why are brokers lowering their price target?

Brokers view is not very enthusiastic for UL. Not much upside by looking at their forecast. The highest is £40 per share. Are current holders in just for the dividends?

I held a position in HSV for almost 1 year, which was a painful one. I eventually sold at a 25% profit. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the forest. I think there is a marginal risk of the acquisition not materialising.
I am keeping an eye on this as I may take advantage of an unlikely price weakness. The upside from here is short of 20%

In less than 2 weeks RBC lowered its target price from 250 to 210. Were they expecting a better growth of 5%? in this environment 5% is not that bad.
I am curious to know if profit growth is driven by price or by volume growth, or if they managed to drive down costs

What is a PPC?

Lex: Don't look at 2021 earning to calculate the PE ratio. That was affected by an exceptional item.
The company yields about 3% of well covered dividends which have increased consistently over a number of years.
In the long term I can see HSV be worth over £15 per share. Customer retention is great in the UK. In the US the company seems to be repeating the UK success.

I am tempted to add too, there are so many cheap stock on the UK market now!

Sharing this, even if it is not the news of the year:
https://www.ragtrader.com.au/news/jd-sports-makes-a-big-move-on-queensland

it is definitely a buy at this price, that's quite sure. I am not as sure a valuation of 250p is realistic tho. I think 160p is a fair valuation

Yes, it will equate about 12, so about 10% up from current

Retailers will suffer due to the fear of reduced spending due to inflation. Question is how inflation will affect people by age group. The most affected will be pensioners and young people. people in the age group of 35-60 probably will have the potential to negotiate better wages.

What do you mean by single digit EBITDA?