Member Info for Albi1

Apologies Slip, I misread!

Thanks Chablard, I'd trust Pisces and Diego, wanted to check with Slip as KBJ can't be alongside if TL is flaring.

Slip,
"The KBJ manoeuvered alongside the TOL first thing Saturday morning, took what I assume to be a part load and has remained in attendance since."
If the KBJ remained in 'close' attendance throughout today, not sure how a flare would have been reported today?

EV - hi Sentiment, Armageddon - whatever else you call yourself on here and numerous, numerous other BBs. You actually managed to be fairly restrained on here. You are bordering on psychopathy, but you will probably take that as a compliment.

Engtangled - depending on language it has several rather different meanings - it doesn't translate well into Bengali that's for sure. In slovakian languages it means water or translates to 'aqua'.

Ha, ha Wellwell, hope it wasn't the same branding company who designed them!

Diego
Laserdisc's deductions over on the Advfn board seemed to point to continuous flaring since it started. Any comments on that?

Interesting to see the reaction today of all those who thought a placement wouldn't happen.

Broadly speaking glad they've taken control of the situation, feel New Summit were playing them.

Biffadog

"A successful result at WW, following on from the success at Lincoln, backed up by a positive update on the EPS at the CMD in January, will pretty much underwrite the long term investment case for HUR. "

It will certainly increase interest but I don't see IIs getting in until they have the data results as per previous posts etc.

Ludicrous - read the 2nd September RNS. Per my post over the weekend - 12 mos data needed on Lancaster - due August 2020 or possibly a month or so later due to shut ins for testing and dependent on weather conditions etc.

EV
Data? Yes, of course. But so far so good - so an informed assumption. So far Hurricane have understated and overdelivered which is what makes me optimistic. I do believe anything of significant concern would have merited an RNS.
Good luck!

Emptyvessel
I think most of the 'Super rampers' you mention have studied the geological documents posted on Hurricane's website in depth and therefore understand that water is not a risk here.

Dr B
'Wouldn't be putting much faith in Malcy's 'finger in the air' predictions if you've any sense.'
Possibly you're right about that, however my post is based on Hurricane's operational RNS on 2 September - which aligns with Malcy's thinking actually.

Apologies hit send too soon. Pls ignore previous post.

I listened again to Malcy's recent interview, posted on here but to remind (14.29 onwards):

https://total-market-solutions.com/2019/11/22/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xvi/

He states that on positive 12 months of reservoir data, on Lancaster alone he could see the SP at £2 plus. Malcy stated he didn't expect the SP to move much on positive results from WW until they had that Lancaster data in.
So Hurricane's operatoinal RNS on 2 September stated that since FOIL on 4 June 2019 ... for a significant portion of the period between 4 June to 2 September production has been constrained by the use of only one of two subsea flowlines, as a result of operational necessity. This has limited maximum production capacity and Hurricane's ability to carry out activities planned to increase the Company's understanding of the reservoir's performance.
As of 2 September, however, operations have now recommenced with two flowlines but as operations move into the next phase of commissioning over the coming months, production and availability are likely to be constrained as certain planned works and delayed data gathering activities will require periods of production shut-in.
So if I read that correctly - 12 months of reservoir data on the Lancaster EPS will probably mean August 2020 as opposed to May 2020. Therefore, the January CMD will amount to 4 - 5 months of data.
Realistically, common sense tells me a fundamental shift in SP is unlikely before August 2020.
That said, if there is read across between Lincoln and WW this might provoke a rerate.
I guess we'll find out soon enough, but this is a project that demands long term patience and if they keep progressing as they are then I think Morgan Stanley's predictions of £3.40 something might prove to be rather conservative.

he first oil milestone ("First Oil") was achieved on 4 June 2019. For a significant portion of the period from First Oil to date, production has been constrained by the use of only one of two subsea flowlines, as a result of operational necessity. This has limited maximum production capacity and Hurricane's ability to carry out activities planned to increase the Company's understanding of the reservoir's performance. Notwithstanding this constraint, since First Oil, Lancaster EPS system availability, production and cash flow generation have been above Company guidance.
I listened again to Malcy's recent interview, posted on here but to remind (14.29 onwards). He states that on positive 12 months of reservoir data, on Lancaster alone he could see the SP at £2 plus. Malcy stated he didn't expect the SP to move much on positive results from WW until they had that Lancaster data in.
So Hurricane's operatoinal RNS on 2 September stated that since FOIL on 4 June 2019 ... for a significant portion of the period between 4 June to 2 September production has been constrained by the use of only one of two subsea flowlines, as a result of operational necessity. This has limited maximum production capacity and Hurricane's ability to carry out activities planned to increase the Company's understanding of the reservoir's performance.
As of 2 September, however, operations have now recommenced with two flowlines but as operations move into the next phase of commissioning over the coming months, production and availability are likely to be constrained as certain planned works and delayed data gathering activities will require periods of production shut-in.
So if I read that correctly - 12 months of reservoir data on the Lancaster EPS will probably mean August 2020 as opposed to May 2020. Therefore, the January CMD will amount to 4 - 5 months of data.
Realistically, common sense tells me a fundamental shift in SP is unlikely before August 2020.
That said, if there is read across between Lincoln and WW this might provoke a rerate.
I guess we'll find out soon enough, but this is a project that demands long term patience and if they keep progressing as they are then I think Morgan Stanley's predictions of £3.40 something might prove to be rather conservative.

From an article in Energy Voice in 2018:

"The Greater Lancaster Area west of Shetland is estimated to hold up to one billion barrels of oil, making it the biggest North Sea find since Buzzard in 2001."

Let's see what Warwick West brings to the table!

Feelinlucky

https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/buzzard/

The Buzzard reservoir has a low gas / oil ratio and required pressure maintenance through water injection from the onset of production. The reservoir also features excellent rock quality with up to 360ft of high-porosity, high-permeability sands with an oil saturation of up to 94%. The oil consists of medium sour crude (32.6° API, 1.4% sulphur) with minor wax and asphaltenes.

£6?

Divecentre
Go on Marine Traffic ... etc.
Oh give me a break, it's got orange legs hasn't it? At least give me credit for asking for verification!

proverloop - just proves the point, don't believe everything you read or see! I'm not a rig expert so I'm afraid one looks much the same as another to me.