RE: seplat29 Apr 2020 22:06
there is certainly quite a queue now, peakyblinders, of very good news in short term prospect (ie. over the next few weeks or so.) we're surely overdue on an operational update. we heard recently that OML18 now has 600/700m barrels oip, which is a significantly increased figure. i guess that increase has resulted from the last 3 wells drilled. so we need an updated gross production figure for the licence (think we were heading north of 50,000 bopd before downtime and losses). which of course brings us neatly onto the expected news on the commissioning of the ACOES (pipeline and the FSO). given the huge impact this will have on downtime and losses ( i think we have been losing about a third of all production) that is our most eagerly expected news in q2 sometime. we already know the FSO, the ELI Akaso (a completely refitted VLCC originally built by Samsung Shipping, capable of holding 2m barrels), has arrived off the Niger Delta (and possibly pro tem being hired out for floating storage off Togo?). and then we have to wait and see if Oisin Fanning has pulled off any value revenue producing deals, as he recently suggested in one of his interviews. he is a great deal maker for sure (and i'm intrigued by his recent appointment of Adekolapo Ademola to our bod - he's also a director of ELI and Eroton.) i don't think there can be any complaints now about Oisin making good on his promises to return cash to shareholders. we have a strong board (in particular, aside from Oisin, Joel Price, our COO, who is highly qualified and experienced and Mutiu Sunmonu, our chairman, who as former head of Shell Nigeria is hugely respected in Government circles etc in his own country). so now for me, it's a question of keeping the momentum on newsflow. i don't do charts myself but look for deep discounted value, revenue and cash. that's a pretty rare combination on AIM but remarkably i believe we have it here. the value of OML18 should measured over 30 years. that we acquired our 10.5% interest in it effectively for nothing (interestingly at a time when oil prices were not dissimilar to today's and its then ownership was distressed) is down to Oisin, his relationship with Jite Okoloko and the financial backing of Tosca. OML18 produces very high grade oil, very cheaply and very close to export market. when oil recovers its equilibrium, as it surely will and soon enough, don't go looking for San Leon bargains then. with field development then back on target, they're planning to get OML18 north of 100,000 bopd. GLA.