Member Info for Alaric

yes indeed the SP had already been at 11.1 p for less than a day. by the time of the 9p 'predicshun' it was 12.5p and a week later back through 18p. then within a month it went through 27p. i think most on this board ( at least those without any mental health issues) would agree that's not much of a prediction. but heh on the brightside it could have been worse - it was only 3 × out

even allowing for the possibility of congenital ******ation - 9p ? really? at 4 times that today that short will be hurting (more likely he was lying though, the only shorts he's got are the ones he's wearing hahaha)

... i should have added that without Farallon’s selling i think the SP would have doubled by now. but no matter we will all know soon enough - les jeux sont fait.

... simply because Farallon keep hitting the bid - given they have millions of shares to sell (as appears to be their present strategy for reasons known only to them) the only thing that will send this north will be a good result from Kuparuk next week.

also some helpful expert views on short-term programme from yesterday, suggesting they could already be on the next zone by beginning of next week:
'telemachus1: Not sure that they are a 'few more days delay"-ed. If they started flowing the well for clean up today then we could be done with the test three days from now. That would mean that we were done on March 26th and an announcement would come after the weekend. Program wise, that would mean we were arguably 1 day behind and would be into the next test by the time of the first announcement'

to remind, this is what the CEO said on 8th March as they started the sidetrack:

"Although the testing of the Kuparuk has encountered technical problems and therefore delays, we have confirmed oil discoveries in multiple formations that appear better than expected. The team is very excited about what has been discovered. We now have five separate formations to test which all have multi hundred million barrel potential. We have decided to focus on the Kuparuk Formation because of the reservoir quality encountered and potential size of the resource, which is massive by any standards. The results to date and the potential economic value as discussed earlier i.e., 350-500 million barrels of recoverable oil at an estimated NPV10 of over $10/bbl (at today's oil price) represents a huge potentially multi billion dollar prize that we can test over coming weeks.'

'telemachus1: John, since it seems that the experts have declined your offer, I am prepared to hazard a go...The key to whether a well is going to flow is the permeability and the relative permeability curve (couple with the saturation data). A relative permeability measures how permeable the rock is to oil at different levels of water saturation and shows a cut-off of zero at the level of the irreducible oil saturation. If there is enough oil saturation that it is a mobile phase - in other words, surface tension is not going to prevent it from flowing between the (normally water wet) grains in the reservoir - then it will flow.Normal logging suites do a good job of determining the porosity and the water saturation. Cores, with enough time to do the analysis, can be used to determine the permeability and relative permeability curves. The most valuable log that gives you confidence before the core analysis is completed is the RFT (repeat formation tester) which allows you to run a kind of micro-DST on difference intervals. Think of it like a syringe that you put up agains the formation and pull back the plunger quicker than the liquid can flow so you get a vacuum. This creates a pressure differential that sucks fluid into the chamber until It is full and then you get a pressure build up in the small portion of reservoir that you drew down.The shape of that pressure transient gives you a pretty good idea of permeability. It is extremely rare that an interval in which you got good RFT readings indicating permeability then fails to flow at all. Tests that disappoint after all the foregoing measurements indicate likely success normally do so for macro reservoir reasons or well bore mechanical. For example in the former case, the sands may be interspersed with shales that limit connection beyond a few feet. In the latter case, the drilling mud may have created "skin damage" that inhibits flow - a bit like leaves clogging a sewer grille. The good news is that the latter case may limit how impressive the flow rate is but is easily analyzed and corrected for subsequent wells. Unless it is really extreme, it does not limit the data quality.Everyone will have a story of the well that failed to flow despite it being expected to do so. Mukluk is probably the most famous - BP and others thought it was a giant oil discovery before it turned out to be a very expensive water producing well. Sometimes the logs are equivocal and so you decide to test to clear up any uncertainty but when the pre-test information is unequivocal, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of a positive flow test result.I hope that helps.'

There was a very good albeit necessarily technically detailed post by the excellent poster telemachus1 on Advfn yesterday, in response to a question about how much they might possibly know before conducting flow testing (for commerciality). Although flow testing is the absolute key, I was pleasantly surprised by his positive answer (ie. that they can know quite a lot), which supports his own often expressed confidence and why he believes they have spent so much time and trouble getting the Kuparuk sidetrack right. It is clear that telemachus1 is a very experienced oil man. I will repost his answer above for those who can tolerate technical stuff !

to be fair other projections are lower than this

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-75-Oil-In-Q3-2021.html

After Pantheon Resources acquired the assets of Great Bear Petroleum in 2019, 'PANTHEON ALASKA PETROLEUM OPERATING, LLC' changed its name to 'GREAT BEAR PANTHEON LLC'. Great Bear Pantheon is a Texas registered company. The Alaska company’s logos were changed at the same time to reflect this, although don't recall seeing the growling and moving bear before so maybe that bit's new

... 'The bottom line is that San Leon’s share price discount to the company’s 84p a share portfolio value I detailed when I included the shares, at 27.5p, in my 2021 Bargain Share Portfolio should continue to narrow as the year progresses. The board’s policy of returning half its free cash flow as special dividends means a bumper payout is on the cards, too...'

here's the whole piece from IC:
'San Leon’s highlights bumper cash inflow and value creation Loan guarantor confirms US$102.5m of loan repayments to San Lean this year.OML18 Subsea export pipeline on schedule to become operational this year.Providence Resources extends farm-out deadline on its Barryroe oil and gas field. San Leon Energy (SLE:38p), a Nigeria focused exploration and production company that owns a 10.58 per cent indirect interest in the vast 1,035 sq km Niger Delta licence, OML 18, located 500 km from Lagos has issued a positive trading update. Eroton led the US$1.1bn equity buyout of OML18 from a Shell operated consortium in 2015 and holds a valuable 27 per cent equity interest. San Leon also purchased US$174.5m of loan notes (17 per cent annual coupon) to enable Eroton to fund its share of the OML18 acquisition, the ultimate guarantor being Midwestern Oil and Gas. Under the loan note agreement, San Leon is due to receive US$98m (15.7p a share) of repayments in three equal instalments between July and December. Importantly, Midwestern has confirmed that these repayments will be made on schedule in addition to settling a US$4.25m outstanding payment. The near doubling of the oil price since last autumn has done wonders for OML18’s cash flow. In addition, San Leon has confirmed that a new subsea Alternative Crude Oil Evacuation System (ACOES) export pipeline is on schedule to become operational this year. It will cut pipeline downtime, thus driving up deliveries from OML18. San Leon made a US$15m shareholder loan that carries a coupon of 14 per cent and has a four-year maturity in the company which owns the ACOES project. I also note that Providence Resources (PVR) has extended the deadline to 30 April for the proposed farm-out with Norway-based SpotOn Energy on its undeveloped Barryroe oil and gas field in the Celtic Sea Basin. San Leon holds a 4.5 per cent net profit interest in Barryroe that is held in its accounts at US$4.4m, but analysts value it at US$35m (6p a share) assuming SpotOn Energy secures $166m funding to cover the costs for Barryroe’s early development programme. SpotOn remains confident of raising the funds set out in the farm-out agreement, but needs more time given changes to the financing structure. The bottom line is that San Leon’s share price discount to the company’s 84p a share portfolio value I detailed when I included the shares, at 27.5p, in my 2021 Bargain Share Portfolio should continue to narrow as the year progresses. The board’s policy of returning half its free cash flow as special dividends means a bumper payout is on the cards, too. Buy. ¦ investorschronicle.co.uk Priced to hit pay dirt An independent oil and gas development company offers multiple catalysts for share price appreciation'

this is as close as you get to poetry on blogging boards:
'Buy. ¦ investorschronicle.co.uk Priced to hit pay dirt An independent oil and gas development company offers multiple catalysts for share price appreciation'

as qf and i called it, 32p always looked a great buying opportunity. and once solid news arrives now on Oza, the Acoes, Barryroe. OML18 payments, dividend policy etc etc you will begin to see how Panmure recently upped their buy target to double that figure - 64p. San Leon has cash, no debt, no liabilities and a growing super portfolio of prize revenue generating hydrocarbons industry assets in a high oil price environment. it is no typical AIM company, that's for sure.

tele post cont'd...'6. Even if we test the Kuparuk at commercial rates, some have suggested we may only see a move in the share price to 100-200 pence because of continuing doubts as to what we really have here. This would still leave an arbitrage between industry and market assessments of value ($1 billion versus $5-10 billion) that leaves shareholders exposed to any lack of ambition on the part of Farallon and the Riverstone principals.[Personal commentary: The main thing holding back the share price seems to be that the market does not share management's confidence in where we are because of past problems. Knowing the individuals, any failure to over-deliver on promises does not stem from a lack of integrity. Hopefully, the lesson about planning and operating conservatively has been internalized.We are entering a phase of maximum peril because of the enormous arbitrage between the stock market value of Pantheon and an industry view of the value of its assets. It may be time for a radical rethink of the company's strategy regarding data access.The desire not to let substantial regional operators view the data without putting restrictions on their ability to to compete for open acreage (to protect Pantheon's perceived competitive advantage) may instead destroy value. Sure there could be prospectivity in other acreage - including 88E? - but the risk of dilution on billions of dollars is much greater than the potential upside of being a winning bidder on future State lease sales.A way of limiting potential dilution could be to precipitate industry appetite for a transaction by sharing all data openly and using that as leverage to increase the share price to a level at which dilution in subsequent raises is less than would be achieved in any conventional farm out deal.]'

suggest you go on Pantheon's website and look at their recent excellent webinars. huge amounts of technical detail on the expert analysis of their massive 3D seismic database and on the previous wells drilled on their now vast and 100% owned acreage on ANS. also research on the Advfn board reading everything posted by Scot126 and Telemachus1. this recent example gives you a flavour: 'telemachus1: Time for another look at the state of play based on what the latest RNS is telling us:1. There are at least five distinct test intervals - we cannot rule out the possibility that, over the SFS and BFF sequences, it makes sense to test sub packages if they are separated by enough shale to indicate they could be separate pressure systems so the number of tests could ultimately be more than 5.2. If the Kuparuk were 50,000 acres (I am interpreting that by estimating the area covered by the mapping of > 40ft thickness within the Talitha unit, per the eSeis presentation where they saw 44,000 acres that were thicker than in Pipeline State well) and an average of 50ft of pay (although this is probably only the C sand and could be 75ft when considering the A sand as well) and 300 bbl per acre foot based on Kuparuk field recovery (which is an average for both A and C sands) then we are talking about 750 mmbbls recoverable. If the play works at a regional level, then the potential in the Alkaid unit and the recently added acreage means we could be talking about 160,000 acres and, let's say, an average of 40ft of pay for a potential recovery of nearly 2 billion barrels. So that brackets the outcome in my mind. 3. The scale of the deltaic sequences could be even larger than the Kuparuk but here, the problem is that they are more complex geologically and will require more appraisal wells regardless of any successful flow tests in this campaign. Some insight into the macro-quality of the reservoir may be gained from an Alkaid test this summer and that could lead to a much more aggressive appraisal campaign in the winter if the company strengthens its ability to operate simultaneous wells. If we were to have 50,000 acres of closure in the BFF and recovery of 200 bbl per acre ft, then at 300 ft of net pay (between Upper BFF 150ft and perhaps the same again in Lower BFF) we would be talking about 3 billion barrels of potentially recoverable oil.4. The current estimate for the SMD was based on pay updip from Pipeline State and the suggestion was that the value for the closure as a whole could be 600+ million barrels. We do not need to include anything for the Slope Fans, although these are now seen as being prospective even at Talitha, to see that the company could well be sitting on between one and five billion barrels of recoverable oil.5. Based on Jay's assessment of value, because of the proximity to infrastructure, oil price etc, the Pantheon portfolio could be worth between $10 billion ad $50 billion versus a stock market valuation of $300 million.

bien fait, quel fromage. et moi encore aussi

fortunately for us scaff, since charttrader was despatched into the virtual hereafter some time ago, there is a slightly more enlightened response available on other board than you appear capable of.

17% is indeed correct Brackets and indeed they have been late with payments in the past but always made them. and of course we earn extra interest on late payments. aside from the excellent relationship we have with Jite, we also have the payments secured on OML18, so i'm not concerned at all about this. although this morning was a bit of a non rns (i wonder induced by the nomad?) essentially with the relatively short term horizon now on most positive newsflow (none of which is changed by this morning), i think this presents a good buying opportunity

possibly qf but not 9p hahaha! that was just about the most moronic predicshun i have ever seen on this board