Member Info for ajs8220

Typical Harry.

"TKGM is now essentially fully permitted, with funding assembled and ready for the final credit committee and board approvals..."

= TKGM is not fully permitted. Funding is not approved.

"KME has lodged a formal protest with the Ethiopian Minister of Mines..."

= Here we go. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

I've been saying for months that there was something stopping the syndicate coming together and saying yes, and there we have it, formally disclosed today not in a separate RNS but in the run of the mill Interim Results announcement (which incidentally contained the 'material uncertainty' disclosure last year - nothing new there, this has always been running on empty).

Chances of finance sign off in Q4? Not until the over-pegging is resolved so slim to zero. Chances of a shovel breaking ground in Q4? Absolute flat zero.

Without that finance signoff and drawdown, confetti cannon primed and firing in 10, 9, 8...... You can see it coming a mile off. That is why there is a huge overhang at 0.7. Next placing will be at, what, 0.5? 0.4? How quickly before it goes under the placing price? A week, like last time?

Anyone buying against this backdrop is absolutely mental.

Re 9., did he tap his nose and wink as well?

What a load of old guff. If you take that as a buy signal you deserve all you're getting.

The usual suspects already out in force here and elsewhere managing expectations for Hopeless Hapless Harry.

Now that IS cobblers.

Don't worry Tms. Observations on the trading pattern are "cobblers" according to Rob, the font of all relevant knowledge via several generic Google news alerts.

So if this is going to multibag on imminent news, just why is there such a huge overhang and a stampede of sellers around the last placing price?

Answers on a postcard to Jeff Keating, SP Angel.

No, that's not really what I was referring to.

What I meant by 'the trading pattern' was each time any thin volume buying takes this to 0.7, the buys are swamped by sells. There is clearly a significant overhang at the last placing price.

You wouldn't expect that in a stock that was about to rise significantly, the last placees would be content to hold until the pop and sell at the new level once the price had settled at its post newsflow level.

There are other explanations for the patterns we've seen on a spectrum from 'unlikely' to 'totally for fetched', but none of them are at all positive for the price medium term.

As ever, time will tell who is reading this right.

Plenty to suggest different. The trading pattern being the most obvious thing.

You lot crack me up! The comedy just writes itself on here.

"The price should be going up!" "This has got to be a joke!" "It just does not add up."

This is apparently going to multibag when the RNS everyone has been expecting every week for the last year arrives this week. Yet... every time the share price approaches 0.7 there is a stampede of sellers.

What does that tell you? Think about it. Think reeeeeally hard.

Answers on a postcard to Jeff Keating, SP Angel.

so simms45, assuming your observations are correct and that a placee from the ‘institutional placing’ (no s********* at the back) of 30 may is selling into the interest generated by the newsflow of the last couple of weeks at no profit having held the equity risk for the last 3 months, do you think this is because :

(a) once the overhang has cleared the shares are about to pop and the ‘institutional’ (no s********* at the back) seller is stupid to be selling at this level, or

(b), (c), (d), (e) or (f) [other reasons for this trading pattern i can immediately think of, none of which you are going to like]

answers on a postcard to jeff keating, sp angel.

Just be careful you don't get spiked on 'a done deal' that ends up not actually materialising.

Harry has form, lots of it, in this regard.

If you await credit committee sign off, it is not 'a done deal'.

So the latest recycled news-driven rally peters out below the last placing price. At 0.70 there are more sellers than buyers. That alone tells you all you need to know.

Of course TW is going to give his darling Harry an easy ride! It will be a Zak Mir style puff piece. "So Harry, is your c**k two feet long or the full yard?" TW is a shareholder here so he isn't going to be asking the awkward questions like why, nearly a year after announcing it was imminent, the banking syndicate has STILL not come together.

As for chartists and breakouts coming and all sorts of other guff, if you want to know where the price goes from here you may as well ask your granny to look at her tea leaves. You cannot tell if this will rise 10% or fall 10% from here just by looking at past share prices. If you could the chartists would all be billionaires.

The price will be driven by news on the financing syndicate or lack thereof. If positive news comes it will likely pop. If it doesn't it will likely bleed down, drawing in traders from the last rally to sell at every 5% down.

My stance is unchanged. There is a reason why the syndicate has not come together to this point, and I do not believe any number of meetings, site visits, drillings or surveys will resolve it.

More than a decade after listing, the cumulative turnover of this stinking pile of merde is GBP 0. Meanwhile Harry and your board have grossly enriched themselves (and continue to do so) sending tens of millions of shareholders' funds to money heaven.

"So Harry, how much longer do you think you can get away with it?" will not be one of TW's questions. But it damn well should be.

Standard AIM spiv distraction tactic. "Don't look here, look at that shiny thing over there!"

Then after the placing a month later, "thanks for the cash, now beat it."

Here's one for the Q&A.

Q : If these Saudi assets are so spectacularly good, why isn't all that Saudi money sloshing around buying and developing them double quick?

A : These Saudi assets are not spectacularly good. They're not even commercial. They're s4*te.

So more dilution down the line via a VWAP death spiral.

What's not to like for ordinary shareholders?

The more I see, the more glad I am I got out when I did.

Just because you've done your conkers Bear666 there's no need to take it out on others. Do you kick the cat as well?

The key line in the RNS for me is

"Almost all the pre-requisites to begin construction are now in place."

Let me translate that for you :

"The pre-requisites to begin construction are not in place."

The rest is just the usual HAA guff like you've been getting for the last ten years. As ever, he's hoping for a very soft landing of the news that there are yet more delays, and his weekly updates will be starting to lay the ground for the next 'we're oh so close to something unique' placing.

You can see it a mile off.

Ah yes, those paragons of virtue, democracy and all that is freedom and equality, South Africa.

Or Zimbabwe South, as it is also known.

I doubt that's a deep enough discount to hold the share price at that level for long. It went below the placing price very quickly last time.

The 30 May 0.70 firm institutional placees would be sitting on £1.5m losses and probably give Harry the brandy and revolver at that point.

To be fair, he probably has a holiday home in Cyprus too thanks to you lot.

And your hobby, Danners old boy, is being the archetypal bulletin board moron buying c**ppy little catchpenny stocks that you think will make you richer than Croesus and getting the hump when your folly is laid bare to you.

Filter me. I ain't going nowhere.