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On the contrary, THE_CHAIN, it is precisely what I would expect to see with a death spiral.
When you find me one example where this provider's approach has been that of patient long-term partners supporting growth in equity shareholder value, I will concede that could be their plan here. Good luck in your quest.
Were I to have a potential 245m position I wanted to de-risk in these circumstances, I would play it exactly as the trading pattern suggests. I will concede that you are right that I have no interest in crashing the price... Yet.
Sell 200m, getting the best price I can for little parcels. Drip, drip, drip. Let the telegram mugs soak them up with as many £500 pay day top ups as they can, and also scatter as many as I can to the wind.
Destroy the price with the last 45m, then convert to close the short someone in the dark pool has let me and my Cayman buddies build up.
Sell 200m at an average of 0.6p, 45m at an average of 0.2p, convert (buy back) the lot at 0.1p.
That's a cool Bernie on the trades, plus the fees. Easy money.
Who paid? You did. Thanks for that pal. Now beat it.
Back after a lovely birthday weekend away with the wife and I see that while the rest of Britain was waking up to a beautiful sunny Saturday morning, THE_CHAIN was on here at 0723 having a pop at me and it seems I was living rent free in his head all weekend. Yet apparently I am the sad and bitter one.
So what of yesterday’s announcement? Well the share price action tells you all you need to know. The hype and golden ticket buying from the telegram mugs quickly dissipated.
PROPOSED sale (my emphasis).
Heads of terms (not the actual agreement).
Subject to due diligence and conditions precedent.
Shares held in escrow till next year.
All share consideration – sale to one illiquid shell for shares in another illiquid shell. Whatever is supporting the CRML share price it sure ain’t proven assets.
So no potential benefit to the company until at least next year, only the costs of completing the deal, and you’d better hope the CRML related party bunco isn’t rumbled between now and then.
In short, an opaque related party deal by a company that specialises in opaque related party deals. No wonder the market practically ignored it.
Of course it’s all a distraction. Don’t look here, look over there – the quickness of the hand deceives the eye!
As a reminder.
No TFS
No RTO prospectus (in fact this agreement will necessitate another rewrite and submission of the draft prospectus)
No commercial update
No meaningful activity at Wolverhampton on the DJ Audits video
No date for resumption at Tipton
In short nothing promised actually delivered.
All while the big round million sells continue.
Dusty, as consistently stated here I see the bottom for TM1 as 0p.
I cannot see the RTO being approved and I am becoming increasingly sceptical about the imminent arrival of a TFS. If the RTO does not proceed and the company cannot get quickly to cash break even, what becomes of the assets in Recyclus and the 48% of it owned by TM1? Anybody's guess of course, but I doubt any of the current scenarios see any value for the equity in TM1.
AndyOzwald tried to dismiss my first warnings about this related party bunco back in November as concerns over "one small RNS" and told me all the telegram mugs were laughing at me. The price was 1.325 at the time.
That "one small RNS" around which I was told by another poster there would be "no selling" was the start of the CLG debacle, precursor to the Atlas debacle.
I take it the telegram mugs are not laughing now.
As a reminder, target price for the TM1 equity is 0p. Get out while you can.
"I would say nothing has changed..."
This has to be one of the most pitiful posts I've ever seen on here.
Since that RNS that first tripped my radar in early November, in some ways nothing HAS changed. With the likes of Cleverly associated, this was always going to be a zero, and there has been
No TFS
No RTO prospectus
No commercial update
No meaningful activity at Wolverhampton on the DJ Audits video
No date for resumption at Tipton
In short nothing promised actually delivered.
But also, everything has changed. Not one but two death spirals, on the second of which we still have no idea of conversion terms. A massive stock overhang, increasing overheads, margin calls on loans... you name it.
The pitiful part is that they seem to have a group of people on their shareholder list who, despite by their own admission having zero corporate finance or stock exchange knowledge, have put life savings, money they cannot afford to lose, into one small cap share on the advice of friends of friends going back to you know who.
Single share telegram groups should be banned. Those who admin and moderate them should be sanctioned. And those who puppet them, the boards and related parties of such naked promotes, should be in jail 'pour encourager les autres'.
Here endeth the (latest) lesson.
PS if we see another 4 x 2m sells tomorrow this will set new all time lows. Get out while you still can.
12 million in round million sales in 24 hours speaks far more for the mood than the telegram group echo chamber ra-ra.
Put as much Cap'n Smith bravado on this as you like. Your board have already steered this into the CLG / Atlas iceberg, so down she goes.
Four million sold today in three tranches. Is that Atlas starting to reduce their exposure? No more telegram mug top ups to soak up the sells, so down she goes.
The silence is deafening.
No TFS
No RTO prospectus
No commercial update
No meaningful activity at Wolverhampton on the DJ Audits video
No date for resumption at Tipton
As I said to Jonathan if there were anything to be shouting about, you can bet your life they'd be shouting about it. So we must assume still burning cash like it's going out of fashion.
When is the next death spiral drawdown?
Except it won't though Jonathan. Because of the offshore ownership and related parties. Shareholder agreements / nominee arrangements are also not in the public domain.
On operations, if there were anything to be shouting about, you can bet your life they'd be shouting about it. It looked very quiet in the DJ Audits video, and we know Tipton is paused.
Flypanam / Loggy, the directors of your beloved company could put out a RNS every day for a year regarding their historic association (fact) with Cleverly and still the stench of his involvement would not go away.
What is my obsession? Cleverly has lost shareholders almost everything in every public company he has ever been associated with. The most recent being Tingo, in connection with which there are now live indictments for securities fraud. When your company put out a RNS in early November disclosing a related party deal with entities Cleverly was previously involved with, that tripped my radar.
My carefully worded assertions are NOT libellous. They are a matter of fact, which is a bombproof defence against defamation in any jurisdiction you care to bring a suit in.
Still, at least we're discussing it which is better than ignoring it and hoping, wishing, praying that the regulator turns a blind eye and waves your RTO through.
Misty, I am a proponent of clean, honest and efficient public markets. I want those researching shares to be aware of the likes of Cleverly and his associates where they have been involved in related party deals such as this.
New marks walk past the bunco booth every day. I will be here with my warnings for as long as it takes for the bad actors to leave town.
Miller67, this was exactly my concern when I first posted here in November :
"The related party carve ups between TM1, Century Cobalt, Recyclus and CLG don't pass the sniff test I'm afraid... Any buying will be aggressively sold into. It may be allowed to float up and down on the tide as new mugs are suckered in via telegram and other chit-chat, but the overall direction will be down. Anyone buying or holding here is asking for it IMHO.
Second post :
"I have done a little homework since the RNS and none of the reasons I can come up with for structuring this series of related party deals like this are positive for TM1 shareholders."
Third post :
"OK, I'll be blunt. There is one very obvious potential reason why you would structure the deal between the three related parties in the way they have. The funds come from mug punters recruited in telegram groups and via other chit-chat buying shares in TM1. Who is selling? Read the RNS again really carefully and try to join the dots for yourself.
This deal, between the related parties and on the terms disclosed, is not a normal straight up loan facility between a lender and a borrower secured on the assets of the borrower. You have to ask yourself why? And when you think about that, who wins and who loses becomes clear.
Look, if you think this is about to start throwing off tons of cash, the debt all gets paid off and you are left with enough enterprise value to make you all richer than Richard the Rich, that's great. Fill your boots.
But I'm telling you, that deal disclosed on Tuesday is not the sort of normal, commercial transaction a good public company with good prospects would do on a 10% margin. IMHO it lines up holders and future buyers here for a potential shafting.
So if it does end up that way, don't say you weren't warned."
And five months on, I stand by it all.