Back from holiday3 Apr 2024 09:44
back from a couple of weeks away. what did i miss?
quite a lot, and not a lot.
so q1 is finished, the quarter you were told would show so much positive news the telegram mugs would put the local ferrari garage on speed dial.
what did we actually get last quarter?
- a few tiny feedstock deals, some so insignificant they were rns reach marketing communications
- a failed death spiral with a dodgy provider backed by macquarie (because it worked out so well with them last time)
- a replacement death spiral with an equally dodgy provider backed by macquarie (because it worked out so well with them the previous two times)
- unaudited interims that don't appear to comply with uk gaap
- an admission that lead acid processing at tipton has been paused to focus limited resources elsewhere
what did we not get last quarter?
- tfs permit
- offtake agreement
- rto approval despite being assured several times, most recently on 13 february, that the prospectus would be out this quarter.
the business is still haemorrhaging cash. it has drawn £3.1m from various facilities since early november and has not announced anything to move the dial on cash inflows, which you can bet it would shout about if it could. contrary to uk gaap, the accounts do not consolidate recyclus despite it being an associate under common control so you cannot see how much the 'group' sends to money heaven every month.
i have consistently maintained that the rto will not be approved, and nothing i have seen recently changes that view. conflicting messages from the company in rns and interviews seem to indicate it is being rallied between the company, the regulator and this mythical 'second approver', but the fundamental concerns over the ownership history, funding, terms of the rto, recent death spiral ****ups and share price volatility / manipulation seem insurmountable to me. my guess is that at some point the fca will kick this so far into the long grass the company will be forced to fess up that it is not happening. then what?
the competition are disappearing over the horizon in terms of tech and commercial resources. whatever 'first mover advantage' the company thinks it had has long since evaporated. it is now just a cash guzzling dog of dubious pedigree and limited prospects.
when atlas really start selling out that £1.5m drawdown this will drop like a falling knife. see canadian overseas and vast resources for evidence of their 'patient capital' creds. was last week's 20m sell theirs?
target price 0p. it is now the proverbial bag of crisps stock. if you can get your dealing costs and a bag of crisps by selling, click the sell button and enjoy your crisps.