Member Info for ajs8220

"If" doing a lot of the heavy lifting again.

Lighthearted fun market abuse

It's a fine line. If anyone traded having seen your original (now deleted) post you are clearly across that line.

Because of the first word of your essay, everything else is so much meaningless cobblers.

Speaking of which, if my Auntie Mary had them... they would be reminding us at every opportunity not to use such dated tropes in today's gender fluid world.

Sells now appear to be £5k at a time, presumably because the market was struggling not to choke on £10k / 1.1m at aa time.

It seems PI appetite to soak up those sells is evaporating. But a bit more rampy rampy on telegram might feed the mincer some more.

I know it's boring but just to point out as 'Arry's disciples are slowly realising, second bank / full finance sign off is an 'if', not a 'when'.

ElecticalEng, I have my own opinions and believe me I have done my own research. I find all the risks here to be on the downside. As previously stated, the related party loan, repricing of warrants, rewriting of CLN terms and the death spiral show a clear direction of travel in the last 3 months. Both TM and Recyclus are cash guzzling dogs, desperate for funds. That much is obvious, the company wouldn't be resorting to the actions it has over the last three months if it were generating operating cash flows.

And sorry if the phrase 'death spiral' irks you. It is what a Loan Note convertible to shares at a discount is called in Corporate Finance circles. So called because as each drawdown of the loan is converted to shares, and those converted shares are placed in the market, the price falls because demand cannot soak up the supply. So the next drawdown conversion is at a lower price, meaning more shares, and the downward spiral tightens.

The company is dealing with Government bodies and large corporations, all of whom can see what is unfolding here. You do not need to be a Corporate Finance expert to work it out. The FCA, the body responsible for approving the prospectus and eventual RTO, have as their primary objective to ensure orderly markets. The market in relation to TM1 shares has, in the last three months since the 7 November announcement of a related party loan, been anything but orderly for reasons some of us who have seen it all before can guess.

That is why I question whether the prospectus and RTO will ever be approved. There are a number of companies in the recent past (see DEV) where regulatory approval of a scheme that just did not pass the sniff test has been delayed to the point where the company simply ceased trading. I think given the delays, and the company's response to recent liquidity issues that may or may not have been raised by the regulator, that has to be at least in the back of a reasonable appraiser's mind. Silence on this matter is definitely not a good thing.

Before today your last comment on this share was when the price was 1.40p in the middle. That it has almost halved since then is a matter of fact. So can I suggest you stick to the Electrical Engineering aspects of this when commenting in future, and leave the Corporate Finance to those with more experience.

I am of the honestly held opinion (got to be careful with the libel) that this is likely to be a party related to the offshore death spiral provider forward selling shares that will later be converted into existence.

It would be the de-risking thing to do.

The floor is zero. Given the conversion formula, there is no price down from here at which they don't make money on the deal. It has a lot further to fall before they've churned the £1m worth drawn down into private hands.

Where is the "not quite the RNS we wanted" RNS count now?

30? 50? More?

"Every dog has its day"

Is that what the once leonine defender of KEFI has been reduced to? Waiting for it to be 'Arry's turn to get lucky?

Things must be looking grim.

To be fair Fozdog my 0.65p call was based on the related party loan with the shares as security as announced in early November. Forward selling those at any price above 0.65p would give the creditor a profit when the security was surrendered. That was the obvious risk averse play for the noteholder.

Since the drawdown of the death spiral the shares to be created for conversion could be sold at any price, literally any price. There is no floor above zero for that £1m worth. The lower the price, the more shares the death spiral provider gets, the greater the dilution for existing holders.

The regulator's main job is to maintain orderly markets. With a forward seller drawing in more PI money, and it is solely PI money, there are no institutions in at this mkt cap, the last thing TM1 could be described as is an orderly market. The RTO is surely further away than ever after the latest price action.

PIs here can't say they weren't warned. Or on telegram, where I was told I was being ridiculed.

I'd very much doubt they're laughing now.

Another £10k dripped into the market today. Different number of shares, but same result - down she goes.

Can't see the regulator rushing to approve the RTO against this backdrop.

How many sells of that number of shares is that now?

Could this be someone connected to the offshore death spiral provider forward selling the conversion shares £10k at a time?

Pure conjecture of course, but if so this has a long, long way to fall.

As seen on other shares, this is how a death spiral gets its name. Every drawdown gets sold by a related party between drawdown and conversion which crashes the price, leading to more shares being needed for the next drawdown and conversion... and so on.

This is not 'patient capital'. Death spiral providers very rarely hold TR-1 positions in small caps. They are risk averse, and do not need to take any risk at all if the shares can be drip, dripped into the market.

All you need is a cohort of mugs to buy the golden tickets.

Speaking of which, am I still the talk of the town on the telegram group? I hope some at least are heeding the warnings.

OK BogdanT, here goes.

My concerns with the RTO are three fold.

In the order in which they became apparent

1. The characters who have been, and given the opacity of the jurisdictions of some of the related parties, still may be involved.

2. A private, closely held company reversing into what amounts to an investment company - albeit with a single asset - and with a lot of mom and pop shareholders is exactly the kind of thing that should be very closely scrutinised and tightly regulated. It just doesn’t pass the sniff test I'm afraid. If it doesn’t succeed post RTO, those who waved it through in the belief that it is the sort of construct that should be on the public markets will have a lot of explaining to do.

3. The combined businesses will not, at the point of RTO, be able to show sufficient capitalisation to get to cash break even in a reasonable timescale. The only facility they have is dilutive at a discount to those already in, so there is an obvious transfer of value from the existing shareholders to the financiers.

All IMHO, of course.

The related party loan, repricing of warrants, rewriting of CLN terms and the death spiral show a clear direction of travel in the last 3 months. PIs look like being left holding the baby. I maintain that the chances of the regulator signing that off are, or ought to be, slim.

What I make of that is that you've fallen for what you've been told with a nudge and a wink hook line and sinker.

A death spiral involving related parties as announced earlier this month is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

My reasons for being here have been clearly and consistently stated.

You attack the person not the points raised because the points are irrefutable and show up your ongoing folly.

Not "we", pal. I've never been anywhere near this junk.

Not "we". You.

"the business is clearly derisked a lot now..."

That is right up there with "there are no American tanks in Baghdad". Do you write this comedy yourself?

This company is clearly desperate for cash to fund ongoing operational issues, and adding expensive heads will only made those problems worse.

Good companies do not re-price warrants (very little uptake but crashed the share price) and sign up death spirals. On the contrary, those are the actions of cash guzzling dogs.

I maintain the RTO is in serious doubt. And if by some miracle of lax regulation it does proceed, unlocking a further £3m of price crashing CLNs may delay the inevitable, but eventually only make the spiral downward tighten.

You were warned in November what was coming here. Get out now while you can.

Here endeth the lesson.

Gawd no. Took an almighty bath.

Just not as hot a bath as some of you are going to take when this finally slides gracefully beneath the waves after failing to pull off its 19th raise sometime in 2028 with 'apless 'arry insisting eighth bank sign-off is imminent.

And the band played on.

Please retract that disgraceful slur.

I sold out of this dog with fleas early last year at a significant premium to the current price.

How do you keep an idiot in suspense?

'arry will tell you in the next RNS.

Apologies, fat fingers.

As ever with our 'arry, you have to read between the lines.

Apart from "not in final form", what does that actually mean?

I've known these facility agreements to go through anywhere from one to over 50 iterations of draft before becoming final. Some went through a dozen iterations and NEVER became final.

And experience tells you never to feel these were "near-final". They're either final - or they ain't.

And, clearly, these ain't.