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Four million sold today in three tranches. Is that Atlas starting to reduce their exposure? No more telegram mug top ups to soak up the sells, so down she goes.
The silence is deafening.
No TFS
No RTO prospectus
No commercial update
No meaningful activity at Wolverhampton on the DJ Audits video
No date for resumption at Tipton
As I said to Jonathan if there were anything to be shouting about, you can bet your life they'd be shouting about it. So we must assume still burning cash like it's going out of fashion.
When is the next death spiral drawdown?
Except it won't though Jonathan. Because of the offshore ownership and related parties. Shareholder agreements / nominee arrangements are also not in the public domain.
On operations, if there were anything to be shouting about, you can bet your life they'd be shouting about it. It looked very quiet in the DJ Audits video, and we know Tipton is paused.
Flypanam / Loggy, the directors of your beloved company could put out a RNS every day for a year regarding their historic association (fact) with Cleverly and still the stench of his involvement would not go away.
What is my obsession? Cleverly has lost shareholders almost everything in every public company he has ever been associated with. The most recent being Tingo, in connection with which there are now live indictments for securities fraud. When your company put out a RNS in early November disclosing a related party deal with entities Cleverly was previously involved with, that tripped my radar.
My carefully worded assertions are NOT libellous. They are a matter of fact, which is a bombproof defence against defamation in any jurisdiction you care to bring a suit in.
Still, at least we're discussing it which is better than ignoring it and hoping, wishing, praying that the regulator turns a blind eye and waves your RTO through.
Misty, I am a proponent of clean, honest and efficient public markets. I want those researching shares to be aware of the likes of Cleverly and his associates where they have been involved in related party deals such as this.
New marks walk past the bunco booth every day. I will be here with my warnings for as long as it takes for the bad actors to leave town.
Miller67, this was exactly my concern when I first posted here in November :
"The related party carve ups between TM1, Century Cobalt, Recyclus and CLG don't pass the sniff test I'm afraid... Any buying will be aggressively sold into. It may be allowed to float up and down on the tide as new mugs are suckered in via telegram and other chit-chat, but the overall direction will be down. Anyone buying or holding here is asking for it IMHO.
Second post :
"I have done a little homework since the RNS and none of the reasons I can come up with for structuring this series of related party deals like this are positive for TM1 shareholders."
Third post :
"OK, I'll be blunt. There is one very obvious potential reason why you would structure the deal between the three related parties in the way they have. The funds come from mug punters recruited in telegram groups and via other chit-chat buying shares in TM1. Who is selling? Read the RNS again really carefully and try to join the dots for yourself.
This deal, between the related parties and on the terms disclosed, is not a normal straight up loan facility between a lender and a borrower secured on the assets of the borrower. You have to ask yourself why? And when you think about that, who wins and who loses becomes clear.
Look, if you think this is about to start throwing off tons of cash, the debt all gets paid off and you are left with enough enterprise value to make you all richer than Richard the Rich, that's great. Fill your boots.
But I'm telling you, that deal disclosed on Tuesday is not the sort of normal, commercial transaction a good public company with good prospects would do on a 10% margin. IMHO it lines up holders and future buyers here for a potential shafting.
So if it does end up that way, don't say you weren't warned."
And five months on, I stand by it all.
No pal, what you said does not stand.
You explicitly said there were fixed price conversion terms in an attempt to make people believe Atlas had no reason to sell.
Of course what any other board would do, and indeed what the regulator should be forcing them to do, is to disclose the conversion terms so the market knows what full dilution potentially looks like.
I thought they were trying to distance themselves from Cleverly - this is exactly the kind of stroke he would pull. Behind all sorts of related party smoke and mirrors, naturally.
It is very carefully worded. It does not say the £1m loan has been fully repaid, only that the margin call will be.
The company is also silent on the £600k drawn under the first failed death spiral.
But even if CLG are now fully out, is that someone connected to Atlas selling in big chunks today to reduce their exposure - maybe some side agreement with Ofori not to dump until he was out?
Pure conjecture of course. But in the absence of any confirmation of conversion terms by the company, conjecture fills the gaps.
Anyway, someone is selling and the price is reacting accordingly. Whoever that is, they don't think price changing news is imminent either.
I would also point out that when I made that suggestion back in November, your board's latest guidance was to expect the prospectus in early Q1.
So three months and a couple of missed timeline updates later, who do you now trust to be calling this correctly?
Andy
I first suggested the RTO was unlikely to be approved in mid-November.
Four and a half months ago. Someone is standing in the way of it!
Two death spirals and £3.1m of drawdowns later, ask yourself whether the odds on it going through have improved, or deteriorated.
I think there is zero chance of the FCA waving this through. But if they do, I will still be here to eat as much humble pie as the telegram mugs can serve up.
I'm totally confident that won't be necessary.
back from a couple of weeks away. what did i miss?
quite a lot, and not a lot.
so q1 is finished, the quarter you were told would show so much positive news the telegram mugs would put the local ferrari garage on speed dial.
what did we actually get last quarter?
- a few tiny feedstock deals, some so insignificant they were rns reach marketing communications
- a failed death spiral with a dodgy provider backed by macquarie (because it worked out so well with them last time)
- a replacement death spiral with an equally dodgy provider backed by macquarie (because it worked out so well with them the previous two times)
- unaudited interims that don't appear to comply with uk gaap
- an admission that lead acid processing at tipton has been paused to focus limited resources elsewhere
what did we not get last quarter?
- tfs permit
- offtake agreement
- rto approval despite being assured several times, most recently on 13 february, that the prospectus would be out this quarter.
the business is still haemorrhaging cash. it has drawn £3.1m from various facilities since early november and has not announced anything to move the dial on cash inflows, which you can bet it would shout about if it could. contrary to uk gaap, the accounts do not consolidate recyclus despite it being an associate under common control so you cannot see how much the 'group' sends to money heaven every month.
i have consistently maintained that the rto will not be approved, and nothing i have seen recently changes that view. conflicting messages from the company in rns and interviews seem to indicate it is being rallied between the company, the regulator and this mythical 'second approver', but the fundamental concerns over the ownership history, funding, terms of the rto, recent death spiral ****ups and share price volatility / manipulation seem insurmountable to me. my guess is that at some point the fca will kick this so far into the long grass the company will be forced to fess up that it is not happening. then what?
the competition are disappearing over the horizon in terms of tech and commercial resources. whatever 'first mover advantage' the company thinks it had has long since evaporated. it is now just a cash guzzling dog of dubious pedigree and limited prospects.
when atlas really start selling out that £1.5m drawdown this will drop like a falling knife. see canadian overseas and vast resources for evidence of their 'patient capital' creds. was last week's 20m sell theirs?
target price 0p. it is now the proverbial bag of crisps stock. if you can get your dealing costs and a bag of crisps by selling, click the sell button and enjoy your crisps.