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Small independents have already been bought up by the OIL COMPANIES! who'd have thought! And a few of the big energy companies had bought some too. Some are run by OEMs too.

If they sell Vermelho then I'd suspect a windfall divi?!

Though I suspect that only those with handsome amounts of shares will retain enough to collect divs by 2023-25..... at 50p or above I'd find it hard to still be here, depends on the market at the time. Severe nickel shortages and 20k+ and well this could be a money printing machine in 2025-26 with both online.

If Vermehlo is partnered and we don't need to feed it with Araguaia money then might get a starter div end of first year of operations if nickel is 18k say. If it is 12k then no chance, paying down the debt will be first and foremost and rest for rainy days. Repay of debt is based on 14k so if you are selling at 18k then you have headroom. Could depend on instit support and bringing them in. They like divs. If it is a pound a share in 2023 I am GONE! if it is 25p a share but they are paying nice DIV, then take the div as it is worth more in comparison.

And any sale has to be more than 40p this year for me or I'd feel cheated, but 30p a risk early however as EV s kick on Vermehlo value and importance grows and so does desire and therefore price. If we get finance sorted and we will then Araguaia starts to realise full value and that ensures a basic minimum, the premium comes from vermehlo. The more the EV story unfolds the more value it attains, I suspect someone starts with their toe in the door (orion) and watches the story unfolding and will pounce bigger as confidence grows not an early takeout. A staged takeout of sorts. Or an OEM gets desperate and jumps on the offtake guarantee and agrees to sponsor development. They will be assured a company with a healthy income from stainless printing money machine of Araguaia, whereas other juniors are running on the one they are promoting and they will be under pressure to give up more of the project, we don't..... With finance our hand in Vermehlo deals becomes stronger, whilst a deal of some sorts now will minimise equity in finance hugely as vermehlo value is actually added to to SP. If we sell vermehlo at project level (OEM battery or car will not want stainless, whereas Glencore /Teck will want it all) we would probably look to develop the 3rd resource early and probably heavily drill to expand resources. If Glencore was 14% I'd say they were nailed on buyers but as Teck is dominant and on the board, they would have to decide to step aside to allow Glencore to snap up (Teck won't let them snap it up!) to move on it. Both will not want BHP or AA to take it, these people are in competition for resources and market share with each other. Let's just say we are getting stronger by the day.. . . . The price is rising to take us out, question is how soon they will come. In 2025 it will be £1 so best they get in early.. .

Strummer even the worst case opinion of 14p, ask anyone at the start of the year to guarantee them to double their money.... On AIM!.... By doing nothing all year.... you might find quite a few takers, however the more you start with the more appealing it is. I'd prefer to double 100k vs 5k. Unless we get worse than covid in 2-5 years where true value in HZM is but everything inbetween being higher than today, does one sit back and ignore the noise and take money easily, or spend 3 years chasing lots of other rainbows and new risks to make more, any one of them halving the money we doubled.. ... Yet the original set to double again, if you do nothing.. .. The dilemma. Always difficult to watch FOMO (and twitter ensures there is plenty of that) when your share is stagnating waiting news or drifting, but it's about your appetite to steal some gains somewhere else, than relax and wait accepting the lower risk but still knowing value will come and gains healthy enough for any investor. I want it all now of course, but I'd hope for no worse than 20p end of year, end of 2022 40p end of 2023 50p,end of 2025 if nickel 20k and vermehlo rocking on 60p to 80p

I can't make any sell scenarios fit

This would have saved me the search....ha

Spooky I had JUST pulled that up to relisten myself!

No not all.... in fact it is not even close......

No, just proving that you were wrong to call out Darlonil when it was you that does not believe that you might only walk away with $2.5m and you refuse to acknowledge it. I must admit I do feel a lot better it was only for Indokal and not ARS 5% but still don't like how they changed this payment. The head of terms was agreed and people invested on that information, they subsequentally changed the terms.
I feel it is healthy to 'risk assess' your investment than assuming everything will go as planned..... I have been in AIM to know very little goes as planned sometimes.....

No it is not a difference of interpretion Brooko you are assuming it WILL all go through and therefore voiding any inbetween or failed options that differ from the previous RNS. If it does not go through because the IPO does not take place AND they did not pay the $7.5m on the 31st Jan AND choose not to take the 5% in Indokal, ARS will have the sole amount of $2.5m....that is FACT not opinion. This is compared to $10m with no clause of 5% in Indokal.
Very slim chance large holders in ARS do not pass vote....there maybe a due diligence issue that a lawyer picks up (possible) and the dealings in IDX and IPOs are something ARS has no control over, so saying it WILL happen is not accurate......

4th Point - then why not pay it all at once and why get it reduced from $10m to $2.5m if they had as much belief as you it will happen.
Bottom line is an IPO is the biggest risk here of which ARS and you have no control over, the worst case scenario is $2.5m (worst! - but more like $10m with 5% of Indokal given up) now instead of $10m. Again fact not interpretion

correction * clause can see them walk away with just paying $2.5m

Apologies yes it is Indokal (I was concentrating on the split more), but does not take away fom the fact that if PT WIN do not pay on the 31st Jan and it all falls through they are not commited to pay up the $7.5m unless they take the equity. That is the backstop to them not paying up, but sheds no light on why they are not under contract to pay up on the 31st Jan, the clause can see them walk away with just paying $7.5m. Maybe as a protection if the deal is falls through due to due diligence or shareholders not agreeing before 31st Jan?! They will pay in good faith otherwise, but still clause of the equity means there is a chance they may not have paid it....

Thats what all traders say Coldjoe, the price action is not my fault.... It IS your fault if you and every other trades out... YOU CREATE THE PRICE ACTION by your actions. However, it is AIM and this happens often so only doing what happens often, but you are joining those that do and in a sense just perpetuating the action. I do not throw judgement on your choice, just your excuse....haha.

I can't believe the CHEEK of ARS....
Jeez just looked into this and it is a heck of a lot more 'material' than ARS saying no material changes. They should have RNS'd changes to the Agreement to allow for holders to decide if it is something they want to be invested for, however they have changed it and dropped it on investors without proir knowledge.
Okay the value remains the same so not a material change in that respect, HOWEVER there is a big change in the $10m, the $7.5m is NOT non refundable, it is tied into something else altogether weird and I can't fathom why they have gone for this.

If the IPO does not go ahead and PT WIN does not offer to buy the company after 30 days, then PT WIN are entitled to 5% of ARS if they have made the payment if $7.5m. So you have gone from $10m non refundable to $2.5m non refundable with potential of diluting 5% to get $7.5m. However, if they have not paid the $7.5m they don't get the shares. This is the weird bit, this is all after IPO fails to go off and they don't buy ARS for cash in 30 days they can take the shares (IF) they have paid up all the money from Tranche A BUT they are supposed to have paid the $7.5m at the end of Jan, 2 months before the IPO latest date......Weird to say that they need to have paid all the money if it is supposeded to have been paid way earlier.....unless IPO fails before the 31st Jan! Which I don't like the sound of this clause now in.....Very weird and very material I'd say.

Takeaway is exerts (with some additional points) from the first post that was verbatim from RNS before Xmas

Takeaways -
ECA mentioned again - The Company is also in discussions with a number of ECAs to participate in the facility by providing equipment linked financing. This process has progressed well throughout the year and the Company looks forward to moving towards credit approvals and execution of definitive facility documentation in 2021.

More than ONE Brazil interest beyond the Development bank - Company is progressing interest and participation from Brazilian financial institutions, including the Brazilian Development Bank.
Brazil can't be seen not to be investing in large projects that benefit the country and locals. Money to be allocated post pandemic to drive GDP and jobs etc.

The project finance process, led by Endeavour Financial, continues to make strong progress. As announced on 12 August 2020, the Company executed a mandate to arrange a senior secured project finance facility of up to US$325 million, with a syndicate of five financial institutions. The Company is also in discussions with a number of ECAs to participate in the facility by providing equipment linked financing. This process has progressed well throughout the year and the Company looks forward to moving towards credit approvals and execution of definitive facility documentation in 2021. In addition, the Company is progressing interest and participation from Brazilian financial institutions, including the Brazilian Development Bank ("BNDES"). The Company has also received initial approval for a financing facility of up to R$200 million (approximately US$32 million) from Banco da Amazônia ("BASA").

Simultaneously, the Company is in advanced negotiations to secure long-term offtake agreements for the Project and continues to engage with a number of prospective investors. The Company has also negotiated a non-binding, conditional term sheet with one major cornerstone equity investor, subject to amongst other things, completion of the full financing package

Operative word was TRY...... but see Mr/Mrs 10k and 20k is back on the rise. When that stops this can move more freely. Any dips are short lived now so take them when you have a chance. Mandate confirmation anytime now, with outside chance of Vermelho news given current deals taking place in market in last few weeks.