Member Info for Aimster

Over 6 years to complete a farmout and 3D Seismics and Jolly expects his list of 13 tasks to be completed in 6 months. Don’t look to the past I hear!!! But the Rose Tinters state that with NT2 the SP reached 7p in the past, because it suits their narrative. I stated before that only a fool would totally ignore the past.

The forecast is around 90p/therm until September and then rising to 150p/therm in January 2024.

I know RoJo, just poking the bear. The NT2 Flow Testing scheduled for the end of March was a FACT on the 2 March RNS.

Any update on the 2 week NT2 flow testing that was scheduled for the end of March?

H2 update
Two cement plugs as well as specialist Lost Circulation Materials have been deployed, significantly mitigating the drilling losses
· The 8½" hole section has been drilled to a revised depth and 7" liner will be run and cemented to isolate this section, enabling continuation of drilling into the reservoir as planned
· On that basis, the well is targeted onstream by the end of Q2, at an estimated additional cost impact of £2-3 million net to IOG

Pete while you’re looking in, what’s you take on this statement “Finalisation of terms for the construction of (i) an export pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant”
Is ARA paying for the Pipeline construction or just the tie-in to the wells?

Yes expect an RNS next Tuesday stating as a minimum how the issue is being resolved. Cement or Sidetrack? As this is likely to be discussed at the AGM.

Looking at a Gas Price forward curve a few weeks ago which had the price around 90p/ therm from now until September where it then starts to climb above 100p and peaks at 150p in January next year.

Keith .. the price is at well head and is between $3-$4 per mcf depending on gas composition. It’s been that price for at least 5 years. Likely to go up in the next GSA this year.

Zebra … contingent resources in the ground, yes. Like I’ve stated before, check out Aminex & Scirocco Energy. 2TCF+ (AEX 50% $40m, SCIR 25% $16m) and only $5m and $3m upfront respectively. The rest in free carry or clauses from production revenue.

I’m not invested in PRD but have been in the past. The RNS wordings, the constant change in strategy by PG, the confusing naming of the drill wells and the religious followers of GRH have become tiresome. I’ve stated before that if PG decided to sell the mud from Mou-2 to a pottery company, some on here would think it was a good idea.
Now it seems that PG shot himself in the foot by putting a value on a Morocco sale.
Firstly even if Mou-3 is a success, combined with Mou-1 and probably an abandoned Mou-2 there is no way PG will get more than $100m. Most likely $40m to $60m. Look at Aminex and Scirocco’s dealings in North Africa selling off multi-TCF of NG. DYOR.

Jay Bhattacherjee said at the Turner Pope investor evening that the pipeline would take between 6-9 months to construct.
Have the TPDC awarded a contract for the pipeline construction yet?

Skittish ….. Of course you can get a contract for a Single Drill, it’s all down to the additional cost.

President Samia has been in power since the Scirocco deal with ARA was initiated which is still not complete after nearly 12 months. It’s not the Top layer government, it the corrupt lower layers that slow the authorisation process down, which will take years eradicate.
Perhaps Noble are being naive if they plan to farmout a percentage of their licence. It feels as though they have only been in country for 2 minutes whilst HE1 have been faffing around with their license for years.
Anyway there must be a cut-off date when HE-1 go it alone and that date can’t come soon enough in my book.

If Tiptop came back the SP would be over 2p before the end of month even without an RNS.
Although I think what happened at AAOG probably knocked the stuffing out of him. Perhaps Irishmouse can shed some light?

It’s always a good sign when Bucklerfern starts posting,

If Noble intend to farmout a percentage of the exploration licence that will take at least 12 months to get approved by the Tanzania government.
The only way for Noble to get the fund’s immediately would be some type of inter-company agreement or percentage of ownership. Perhaps someone on this BB has more experience how that would work without any infringement of the exploration license.

Mole .. H1 hit a natural fracture in the pay zone causing water issues. Hopefully they have had bad luck with H2 BEFORE they get to the pay zone.

So at the moment Noble are in phase 2 of selecting Farm-in partner. So no partner selected to date. Do investors realise that it can take over 12 months to get government approval in Tanzania for a Farmout? Look at Aminex & Scirocco’s dealings with ARA in Tanzania.
The good news Plan B is to go it alone with regards to a Drill Rig, but it does show a little naivety from HE1 management to even consider Noble as a rig share partner.
I wonder what the cutoff date is for us to go it alone is? 4-6 weeks to transfer the rig so I would guest end of May at the latest for a go-it-alone rig contract.

Matherdj …yes I may be incorrect. Shortly after the AGM when the farmout was released, Aminex presented at an investor evening. CrustyPete met with Jay Bhattacherjee after the event and Jay made a comment with regards to CH-1 which Pete posted on this BB. The comment is irrelevant now. It was during this research that I saw the comment that I posted earlier. When I get time I’ll have another look.
Anyway the way things are going it may still happen if 1st gas is October with a revenue stream end of year. CH-2 will probably be at least 6 months after CH-1 (ie getting permits approved, construction of a well pad, etc) UNLESS ARA decide to start the paperwork towards the end this year for CH-2 next year. Who knows?