Member Info for AIMOilking

Even at the current price of Brent at circa $73 and a per barrel cost to ENQ of say $60 to ENQ, ENQ should be making around over £100m of FCF p.a. So roughly at the current sp/MCap that translates to net asset value should be increasing by 0.5p per month on that basis alone and now supported by real buybacks.

ENQ's share price is the same as it was 9 months ago and Brent has been significantly higher throughout that time, we already know debt has been reduced so where is our increase in sp to represent a significant increase in net asset value? At the end of April, net debt had reduced by $137m equivalent, equivalent to almost 6p a share. We already know costs will be lower next year and there is every indication that ENQ is hitting targets, so there are really only two factors as I see it:

Brent Price - Downside - we may not see H2 $90 as previously forecast, industrial growth may not be as expected in the big economies but political risk is off the scale at the moment, on the other side demand and lower investment is unlikely to see Brent falling much further and surely OPEC and possible sanctions will provide a buffer stop at high $60's low 70's as downside.

So if we take POO out of the equation for NS O&G producers:

Government Policies and EPL: The current investment environment for NS O&G and specifically driven by EPL is compounded as no one can guess what the Labour Government will do next as it scrabbles for cash which all leads to uncertainty.

I am hoping that tomorrow's half year ENQ results will provide a new base line under the ENQ sp and those that topped up today will hopefully have made a good decision. If the government does see sense and gives the industry a positive way forward for investment, I would hope that we'll see a value bounce in the ENQ sp which is long overdue.

Is this wishful thinking? Looking forward to tomorrow's albeit historic snapshot on ENQ progress......and one day a giant spring in the ENQ sp!

P.S. We should be in the 18-21p range now based on the above on the numbers alone with upside to come.

Odd Jefferies coming out with a new target the day before the half year results, what do they know?

I assume that the downgrade relates to the Brent price outlook being seemingly downgraded and Poo falling below $70.

On the other hand will the unexpectedly low POO for H2 combined with the long wait for the October budget and associated uncertainty mean that deals will not be done or will NS O&G companies be starting to get e little desperate. I would not want to be in Waldorf's shoes with POO dropping...........!

Krak, Ron must have loved the video you posted, I bet he has it on 24/7 repeat!

I bought most of mine running up to Nov '22, could not comprehend that the then government and now this bunch of morons could be so stupid and greedy with EPL and destructive to a key UK industry which is important beyond the NS in exported expertise, technology and logistics, plus energy security.

Since then taken my average down 7p per share but only wish I had waited until today, let's hope Thursday beats expectation.

This getting worse by the minute, I had not expected to be in this territory again and a swift aggressive takeover is not now beyond the realms of possibilities, a 40% increase on a bid would be less than 17p and 60% just over 19p or than later being a £360m MCap and the company has that liquidity within its balance sheet. Refinancing loans and existing Tax Losses and FCF would make this very digestible in the in the £320-360m price range.

When I think back to ENQ's MCap approaching £700m less than two years ago and in the meantime hitting every target including massive debt reduction - EPL has effectively wiped £0.5Bn plus of ENQ MCap. It is simply appalling and if it were not for the huge investments and large tax loss putting ENQ in a strong position to weather the EPL storm, I wonder where we would be today!?

Hoping if there is no deal of any significance in the pipe line, it would be nice to see further director buys after the results on Thursday.

Well, did not expect this in September, lowest Brent price for a year, at ENQ should still be making FCF's at this price, but although H1 might look quite good for ENQ, at this rate H2 might look a little thin. All this despite Libyan fields shutting down and missile hits on a tanker in the Red Sea. The upside is that ENQ will pay less EPL - sorry sick joke!

Already made substantial loses this month and we are only three days in - ENQ MCap below £230m despite what I expect will be lower debt being announced on Thursday. Let's hope H1 results are better than expected to generate some upwards sp momentum supported by a Brent rebound.

Krak.

I thought that I would take another look at the clown Ed playing his banjo, just in case I had been dreaming or having a nightmare..............or it was a deep fake, but no it is reality! Then I saw his video impersonating Take That, so clearly he does not learn and the canned laughter obviously fooled Ed that everyone was laughing with him not at him - by the way the video is not funny. Unfortunately, this clown is in charge of our energy policy and probably still wants a shot at leadership and I don't know whether to check myself into a hospital or go back to sleep and hope I wake up in different reality.......oh but the nightmare may continue!

I'll try and remain sane until the ENQ results on Thursday................

The trouble is that for many reasons it can be in people's interests to support or say the right thing in the short term, because Ed has the ability to open an enormous "sluice gate" of cash paid for by our additional taxes and EPL. In 5 years time most of these guys will have moved on having taken their bonuses, pensions, sinecures or place in the House of Lords. The trouble is there are many that are adept at jumping on the subsidy gravy train as it passes.

Krak, I would imagine that they would extend and add to the programme and perhaps consider a dividend end '25 or '26.

I am actually hoping that trading in ENQ shares will increase running up to and following the half year results and on the back of the buybacks, increase trading would allow increased buybacks.

I am even thinking of trading myself, given that Brent is so volatile to get the volume up - every little bit helps.

Krak, I would imagine that they would extend and add to the programme and perhaps consider a dividend end '25 or '26.

I am actually hoping that trading in ENQ shares will increase running up to and following the half year results and on the back of the buybacks, increase trading would allow increased buybacks.

I am even thinking of trading myself, given that Brent is so volatile - every little bit helps.

Just one week to go and the last six months trading and net debt reduction figures will be revealed - let's hope they are decent!?

According to Reuters, citing unnamed company sources, Shell is restructuring its operations, targeting exploration, well development and subsurface units, with its UK and Dutch branches set to carry the heaviest burdens.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Equinor-Warns-Windfall-Tax-May-Discourage-Its-UK-Investments.html

One of the NS O&G needs to brake ranks and delist and relocate to Norway, US or dare I say Europe, the latter would upset a lot of people! Words are being ignored because the government chooses not to hear or simply does not understand the consequences of its actions or both. We need business decisions that will hurt the UK treasury, jobs, unions, the City and energy security, only then will EPL etc be moderated. It is important to be fair and inclusive to all minority groups but it seems that some minorities are pulling the governments strings disproportionately and the government is targeting certain groups to pay for programmes and wage rises that will drag the country down. Having scrimped and saved to ensure my old age is comfortable and minimise my dependency on the State, my plans made over decades seem to be unravelling at a pace! Here's hoping ENQ will eventually be a good investment!

The only thing stopping me going into free fall depression over the sp and MCap is the prospect of seeing the ENQ half year results which should appear in about a week's time (last year 5th September).

It will hopefully provide a snapshot of ENQ progress with FCF, net debt, production figures being of interest, the average cost per barrel and price attained will also make an interesting read. Unless there is an announcement, I am not expecting any fireworks but I would like to see trade volume and consequently buyback volume increase, which if nothing else should underpin the sp, although seeing Brent in the $90's would I am sure do wonders for the sp, in preparation for next year.

If ENQ is winning decommissioning work, there has to be profit in it otherwise why take the risk, it would appear to me that with a difference between ENQ cost per well and the industry standard, there is room to make decent additional profit whilst keeping everyone happy. It must also place ENQ in a strong position when negotiating deals over and above competing bidders.

We are now half way through the 6 months that AB advised there would be a deal done.

Pete - Is the offer on your wish list or based on some knowledge? Whilst I would be more than happy to see 20p this week, I would like 26-30p if any offer was accepted this week and a lot more for any offer in 2025.

Plus ENQ buybacks have started to count and Brent is back above $81 - Serica will have to try harder than 20p!

Ron, interesting videos but does that make us all heretics on this BB?

We have had a lot of visitors over the Summer and most overly sympathise with the Net Zero brigade but with no awareness of the cost or lack of practical and economically viable technology. It is hard thinking ahead of the general consensus and very frustrating, akin to the seeing the fate of the proverbial oil tanker which is slow to turn........etc.

Well just 10 days until the ENQ half year results and finding out if our captain (AB) has our ENQ ship under control and heading on the right direction despite the efforts of the net zero zealots.

Kris, after seeing that clip, I am not sure even he believed what he was saying and if he does we are all doomed............

Where is the government going to get the money to reduce energy costs by the winter fuel allowance and confirmed increases in energy costs by the end of this year?

Kris, it always disappoints me when a respected BBC journalist finally makes some effort to state the NS O&G case but then trots out the government sound bites which frankly hog'swash window dressing with no evidential support.

However, pleased to see 42 companies have signed up in an attempt to have a voice, but perhaps too little too late. It will only be when the investment ceases, jobs are lost, companies delist and invest overseas, companies go into administration or the actual lights go out will the government sit up and listen but all too late.

Stumpy, I am sure you would get a job with Reeves and if not Ed.

Stumpy, you need to go to specsavers - currently 1,890,924,339 shares plus 25,000,000 in treasury. Where did you get the trillion and it will likely be 50-60m buybacks for the remaining £8m.

Even at this level, the buybacks should provide a small underlying upward sp trend, if not the spring of undervaluation will be tightening to be released on good news.

25,000,000 shares have been purchased for Treasury at an average price of 13.976p and so today, the buybacks can begin.

I am hoping that with a need to buy roughly 600,000+ shares a day to complete the buyback programme by the year end, it will increase volume and tighten share liquidity which will mean an upward trend in share price.

Hopefully the half year results in two weeks time will also have some good news and further debt reduction will translate into a higher baseline sp.

Some good news on a deal would be icing on the top at this stage.

Also hope we continue to see further O&G supporting articles in the press and pressure on the government to moderate their ambitions to steal anymore profit from NS O&G.