Member Info for AIMOilking

Well.........I believe ENQ's Sp has a Labour landslide and 78% EPL already in the price, so as long as Labour does not mess with anything else in the NS O&G sector and they make the right noises to suggest a period of stability, then ENQ is better positioned than most to make some progress in terms of returns to shareholders with increasing market cap and the buyback programme.

Overall, it does look bleak for the NS O&G sector and only a decent Brent price will see us through this period. So, why have I stayed with ENQ as an investor?

ENQ has a proven management team that gets results with a shrewd business sense for sniffing out worthwhile deals and not rushing into undigestible deals and massive debt. ENQ has consistently reduced debt in recent years and controlled costs with the latter substantially reducing next year. Any other company with a balance sheet like ENQ's and associated FCF would not have a MCap of £250m. O.K. EPL has repeatedly moved progress with the ENQ sp to the right, but I believe we will have our day as common sense, a deal or being debt free with loads of FCF will result in a higher sp, so I am sticking with ENQ for the next couple of years.

P.S. Labour's way out might be to simply adopt the Norwegian formula, that way they get the headline 78% tax and for the rest say that they are aligned with best practice in Norway......

Ooh! Waldorf has had a lucky escape, I am assuming the current and projected price of oil has encouraged the stakeholders to support Waldorf rather than stand by and watch a fire sale. This does not mean any deals are off the tables as asset sales would further boost liquidity.

Those trades were unusual, around eight trades of circa £25,000 each in one day. I doubt if they were ML as this would be a departure from previous trading activity on their part. I think it looks like some one acquiring a small position or increasing an established stake. I wonder if there will be an RNS on Monday or even a directors buy if there are no current deals on the table. Also interesting timing at less than a week before the General Election, is someone betting on an unexpected outcome, perhaps on Reform which is the only pro oil party or on POO rising on geopolitical tensions or simply reality hitting home with the new government and the fact that NS O&G is in fact a critical part of the UK economy and both energy security and transition. I have to admit, I also added ENQ yet again this week in the hope that ENQ will dig me out of the worst portfolio month of my entire trading career! An increasingly undervalued share.

Volumes in ENQ trades have been quite low for some time - We need either:

Some really good ENQ deal news;

A whopping increase in Brent;

A beneficial change in EPL;

An acceleration and increase on the buyback scheme.

An unexpected update on news of net debt reduction or production increases.

Thanks Stevo, I had forgotten about the Bressay profit counting towards the EPL liability for 2024.

Two more weeks of uncertainty to the election results, I wonder if any deals will be squeezed with sellers worried about the future post election? We'll also be entering the six weeks since the AGM and just 4.5 months to AB statement that a deal would be done withing six months.

SO next big news could be a deal, otherwise the next update or a higher Brent price is all we have to look forward to, holding as I do not want to be out on deal news. Also glad that buybacks must surely be helping underpin current sp from sliding further.

Hi Stevo,

Where are you getting the $175m EPL payment in October, if correct that suggests EPL at 35% on $500m+ , which in turn might suggest that there is a little more FCF for debt reduction than you suggest in 2024.

Do you have a net debt figure in mind for the end of 2024?

We all know there needs to be a transition as soon as possible to renewable and economically sustainable energy, that said, vandalising Stonehenge is wrong and the vandals need to face he full force of the law.

I wonder how much additional CO2 is produced by all the additional security infrastructure and human resources that have to be put into protecting property and keeping traffic moving these days, that could go towards offsetting some of the subsidies.

I can't believe ENQ is off 2% with Brent rising ad approaching $86, we'll just have to see what the election brings.......

Hopefully we'll bounce before the end of the day as ML mops up a few more shares.

Brent has recovered well from last week, hopefully ENQ's sp will follow.

Still believe ENQ is in a stronger position than most NS O&G, and indeed for most companies.

I can't help feeling that ENQ can afford to just carry on just as it is, but with pressure on other oilers to move assets, I can't help feeling that AB is waiting for some low hanging deals to fall into his lap, patience is the name of the game here and of course the price of Brent.

I was just looking back at the times that the share price dropped to these levels and 2020 with the pandemic and then 2016, when ENQ had revenue of $849m, net debt $1796m and production of 39751bpd BUT with Brent in the range of $29-56 a barrel. ENQ MCap was around $586m (I believe). Today, around $300m MCap with net debt less than $344m, last year's turnover $1487m on 43.6kbpd.

I am gobsmacked on top of worst month ever on my portfolio across the board. Just how much damage can this government and Labour in waiting do to a single industry and the markets in such a short space of time since the introduction of EPL etc?

Brent has bounced back - surprise, surprise!?

I don't think AB will commit to major capital expenditure, $300m tops.

If nothing happens i.e. the right deal does not present itself, AB will just wait and in the meantime, net debt and liquidity will undoubtedly improve as long as Brent stays in high 70's , $80's+. Buybacks are now factored in going forward and I suspect will increase until the government taxes them as well, on top of EPL+.

The Waldorf assets are in play (administration) and others have openly declared and put up their for sale signs. A worsening tax regime could play into ENQ strengths, FCF, Liquidity, tax losses, finance head room and expertise, if subsequently the tax regime (aca rape of the NS )&G industry) is ever favourably modified, ENQ will be in a very strong position. The penny will drop when jobs are cut, Unions rebel, GDP falls, HMRC returns fall and clean up liabilities come home to roost all at once.

What I cannot not understand - there are many O&G jobs in the UK, but how many people to we train and send overseas and how much income do they bring home with them???????

As ENQ management said on 30th May, everything in the NS is up for grabs at the moment, AB could even sell something.....and clear debt a.s.a.p.

Ouch, this is painful, but as a long term holder, you just have to treat these lows as buying opportunities.

I had thought about trading some ENQ as the price seems to regularly fluctuate, but have resisted simply because I don't want to be out if and when AB manages to pull off a deal. I believe he is looking for minimum risk and immediate returns on production which will be offset by tax losses. There must be oilers out there that are about to breach their covenants etc if any further taxes are added or allowances lost - I still think we'll wake up one morning very soon and see one or more deals RNS'd. In the meantime, Brent has recovered to $82+ and ENQ despite paying out EPL in the next half will still be improving on net debt/liquidity.

ENQ is bit like a Lotto ticket - you have to be in to win.............but unlike the Lotto, the ENQ odds must surely be improving even if we don't immediately see it in the sp.

Jef, could not agree more!

What is going on with these journalists and analysts, there seems to be no consensus and reminds me of the newspapers share tips where they bought shares prior to publishing the tips...........

Can anyone provide me a link to a reputable oil demand forecast for demand and price?

Gordon, good find - perhaps a fairer way to tax compared with EPL............but if we get both we're ?*&$£!

From the $77 low on the 4th June, Brent has recovered to $82.15 which is good news for ENQ. A higher Brent combined with the daily buybacks hoovering up some of the sales is undoubtedly underpinning the current circa 15p ENQ sp, although this evening we are still below the 4th June sp of 15.42p, so hopefully we have some upside in the sp to look forward too in the next few days, especially as we know that debt debt is improving everyday. No major reporting until the half-year in September and Operational update in November. Although now almost two weeks since the AGM, and we know that a number of NS O&G assets are in play form the news, personally hoping for some deal news soon, preferably one that crystallises value in the ENQ sp. With some of the rhetoric supporting the NS O&G industry intensifying, perhaps the election winner may realise that current EPL is already a step too far and some sensible people advise the government not to kill the frail old golden goose!

The rate of buybacks does not worry me too much...........the fact that they are constantly buying back shares and will do so long term is important as will future dividends should the BoD decide on such action.

I believe the BoD did make a commitment to buyback the full $15m by the end of the year, ENQ usually hits its targets, so again not worried at this stage.

Reducing debt and particularly high interest debt has to remain the priority. I have a feeling that the 13% debt has a restriction on the timescale before the debt can be paid down, but preferably as soon as possible.

What I am worried about is the current sp and MCap and I am hopeful that we are just weeks away from a fairly transformation deal(s) without too much capital outlay. AB stated ENQ had about $500m of liquidity, some of that is ring fenced, so I assume any deal will be within the current cash and financing limits rather than more debt. The current investing in O&G environment does not good for any company that overextends itself - Waldorf being a case in point (albeit EPL playing a large part).

Trouble is Waldorf is a private company with few employees, plus NS O&G is out of favour, however, once the vultures start acquiring the Waldorf assets under the supervision of the appointed administrators, we might see some more news.

It appears operational production will continue whilst one presumes liquidation of the assets is completed. Waldorf appears to be group of companies, and therefore going concerns will attract a better price and if they are not operators, it might only affect field investment decisions anyway. Barr a couple of assets, it would appear that Waldorf is a minority stakeholder in the assets and I presume they are not the operator - anyone know anymore - the Waldorf website is not the most helpful.

It would appear all but one asset is producing, which means instant cash flow for the purchaser, the fields and well performance along with production rates and declines should be well understood.

At this point I would not expect Waldorf to shout about the impact of EPL, from a negotiating point of view it might sound desperate (even more), but that anger may appear at Waldorf is finally wound up and or other may comment and surmise that EPL is misjudged and damaging for the NS O&G industry, UK economy and HMRC longer term......

Given Harbour and other exiting NS, hopefully ENQ will have a clear run at some of these assets, although as ENQ is considered a class operator others might want to share interests in assets where ENQ is in play.

Mod, good spot. I hope this grabs the headlines and all parties wake up to the destruction of the NS O&G as a result of the punitive EPL and unsettled investment environment. This BB is or should be apolitical, but I noted yesterday that Reform is the only party sounding like they will champion the O&G industry, and went further with the re-opening of coal mining, building mine nuclear and scrapping many net zero targets and subsidies. It certainly differentiates them from the rest on O&G!?.........not sure how many votes it will garner them though.

Well, this has been on the cards for while and EPL at 35% has had a large part to play.................

I suspect that with the implementation of EPL and then the increase to 35%, liquidity became an issue as Waldorf's financing covenants came home to roost and they were forced to pay down debt (prematurely with respect to their pre-EPL business case). Personally, I think this is why there was a degree of excitement at the AGM and AB's within 6 month timescale, another management comment that pretty much everything in the NS is "on the table", plus other comments that deals are being worked on and could happen at anytime.

Waldorf has some interesting assets, even decommissioning opportunities and all the ENQ management kept saying that ENQ would only make the right deals and I don't think AB has an appetite for huge debt or risk as ENQ is currently making good headway and hitting targets. Kracken has to be of interest, as ENQ no the risks and it simply bulks up ENQ production and reserves, whilst still having some infill play.

Now, the NS O&G needs to sound the klaxon hard and loud to point out how a government policy (EPL) has tipped what was a viable company into administration. If the conservatives have any sense, they will immediately cut EPL to at least 25%, which will put Labour into a panic (larger black hole) and perhaps reconsider their NS O&G policy.

Glad ENQ is making plenty of FCF even at the current POO which has bounced a little today.

15.12p again!?

With or without news, POO is going to be critical actor on the ENQ share price and the recent fall in POO has taken the shine off yet another good set of ENQ results. Hopefully we'll see both a bounce in POO and the ENQ sp, but some really good news would also be most welcome, we are talking sp transformational news, if possible - please!