Member Info for Aguila

Hi Re974,
Underground mining can only produce 300tpd to 400tpd from a single vein at 200m depth due to capacity constraints. Spare capacity at La Libertad is a minimum of 2,000tpd, probably nearer 3,000tpd as the Jalabi underground has been suspended since December 2019. Calibre's hub and spoke strategy is totally sensible as they have circa 3,000tpd spare capacity at La Libertad and will truck from anywhere that makes economic sense including La India. The other consideration is replacing existing marginally economic ore feed with much more profitable ore feed. The Q4 2019 ore feed for La Libertad, running at circa 4,000tpd shows that 45% of throughput is 0.55g/t gold from the spent ore (old leach pads being recycled). This should be replaced by 4.0g/t gold plus material from La India and be much more economic for Calibre.

Hi Re974, why should toll milling be off?
The statement says the drill intercept at El Limon is at 210m drill depth beneath an old mine working. it is an underground target, with a ramp being built from the Santa Pancha underground to access the new target. El Limon is at full capacity, the mill is only 1,500tpd compared to La Libertad, a 4 to 5 hour drive away, which is currently 4,200tpd with an additional 2,000tpd on idle capacity. Calibre could truck high grade underground from El Limon to La Libertad, but bottlenecks to mining underground will restrict production to 300tpd? It is at least 18 months before the new vein is in production. There is massive space capacity for toll milling at La Libertad.

Rio Tinto is a FTSE Company, market cap £49 Billion. 2019 results out yesterday, underlying EBITDA $21.2 Billion, free cash flow $10 Billion.
Rio Tinto Exploration JV with Calibre is a massive positive for Nicaragua. For a Company of this size to enter a new jurisdiction requires a lot of technical, political, legal, country risk due diligence. Despite the political set back 2 years ago, Rio is investing, others will follow. This is a massive company that understands operation risk in frontier/developing markets. It has decided it can work in Nicaragua. What MC has been saying for years
Rio's deal is an earn in agreement of up to 75% of Calibre's Borosi concession package by spending US$45M over several years.
secondly, the "Strategic Exploration Alliance" is potentially really significant: "Rio can instruct Calibre to buy properties and will fund the acquisition of those properties". Does La India Project host a hidden copper deposit?

Geovanni, i have listened to Ryan King's interview, where you suggested 50:10. Calibre's strategy is to add ounces of gold to the mine plan at La Libertad, hence the 30,000m drilling at La Libertad and 10,000m drilling at Pavon. It is the correct strategy for Calibre otherwise the processing plant is simply scarp metal if they can't fill the plant. Production forecast this year of 70k to 75k oz gold is half the peak of production a few years ago. There are no economic reserves at La Libertad and as Ryan said they need to expand the mineral resource/reserve. Let's wish them luck, but if they are unsuccessful, the closure costs are US$32M

There is no M&A. a toll milling agreement with Condor isn't M&A. It is a common sense business transaction to utilise 2,000tpd idle ball mill at La Libertad. It is a no brainer. no mining costs or risk, simply risk free processing costs and G&A.

Calibre's next acquisition is outside Nicaragua. Ryan says "in 2 to 3 year we will be in 2-3 jurisdictions" but for now they have to maximise the optimisation of the mines in Nicaragua and that means toll milling from La India, which is a win, win scenario for both Calibre and Condor. Particularly as the high grade Jalabi underground is suspended, Calibre need the ore, but don't want to cough up.

EL, you are spot on with the market, it doesn't believe there will be a mine, there have been so many delays, a 2 year permitted delay due to the original plan resettling 1,000 people, thankfully mine infrastructure has been redesign to avoid any resettlement and a year delay due to 330 being killed in first half 2018. The market has given up, hence so many negative posts. That's behind us now. Permits have been granted to construct and operate a mine and it about to get materially bigger with 1.2M oz gold permitted for extraction. MC has been saying production within 2 years.

A DCF Model takes into account the upfront capex costs to production. so the fag packet US$300M remains, excluding 1.2M oz gold, which should be $30 per oz gold in the ground and District Play on the 580 sq km land package, another US$30M to US$50m....once construction path is clear.

Dilution. The best way to avoid dilution is to get into production with no capex, without building a mine. That's the toll refining option, take 10% of the permitted pit and truck it to Calibre's mines. Calibre has a 2,000tpd ball mill on care and maintenance. 10% of the reserve is 67,000 oz gold or $90M in revenues to be shared. that should lead to a significant re-rating if it can be pulled off.

if toll deal can't be struck, there is no way Condor should raise US$120M and dilute the shareholders to hell. Randy Martin at Nicaraguan milling has built 5 gold mines in Central America, Ian Stalker a mining engineer as recently joined the Board. MC said in the Commodity TV interview, he is looking at a 2 phase approach. so minimum dilution

La India open pit of 900,000 oz gold at 3.0g/t gold is permitted for extraction, technical studies for Tailing Storage Facility, waste dump, mine schedule, power, mine design all underway
Mesitza Open pit 120,000 oz gold at 8.6g/t gold, ESIA for permit submitted end November 2019. America open pit 97,000oz gold at 4.0g/t gold, ESIA submitted end November. Both feeder pits should be easier to permit as they use the same processing plant, which is already permitted

My guess is that Condor will have 1.2M oz gold mineral resource permitted for extraction this quarter. let's say they produce 70% = 840,000 oz gold @ $1,500 oz = $1,260M. breakeven is $700 oz gold. Therefore $675M free cashflow over 7 years = $96m free cash flow per annum or 4 times the current market cap in free cash flow per annum. apply a simple DCF model. NPV of $300M? Valuation today should be 0.5 x NPV, with all permits in place = $150M = 120p per share. no value given for 1.2M oz gold underground and gold district play

New Broker comment on Friday:
Condor Gold* (CNR LN) 21.5p, Mkt Cap £20.4m – Condor appoints SP Angel as sole broker as company moves towards production and development of a potential 5moz gold district

Condor Gold is working towards gold production of gold starting with the development of two high-grade gold pits at the La India gold project in Nicaragua.
Production of 100,000ozpa is targeted from plant throughput of 2,800tpd with ability to expand to 120,000oz on the addition of two new satellite pits.
AISC costs are estimated at US$690/oz.
Capex currently estimated at US$110m for phase one for 79,300ozpa average gold production over 8 years on throughput of 800,000tpa.
La India has already been granted an Environmental Permit for the development, construction and operation of a processing plant with capacity to process up to 2,800tpd with capacity to produce approximately 100,000ozpa.
La India open pit reserves and resources:
Probable reserve: 6.9mt grading 3.1 g/t for 675,000oz of gold
Indicated resource: 9.85mt grading 3.6 g/t gold for 1.14moz gold
Inferred resource: 8.5mt grading 4.3g/t gold for 1.23moz
Underground:
There is significant merit in the future development of an underground mine at La India
The underground mineral resource is 1.27moz grading 5.8g/t for 238,000oz of gold in the inferred category.
Expansion:
The Condor team are also working on a PFS for the satellite America and Mestiza pits which contain around 200,000oz of gold grading ~10g/t.
Bringing in material from the two pits could raise production to around 120,000ozpa over a seven-year period.
Test work for the PFS at the two pits confirmed 91% gold recoveries while demonstrating amenability for CIL and CIP processing.
Condor has submitted EIA and SIAs for permits for the two pits in November.
Exploration:
The team also continue to explore the La India gold project area with a view to adding another 1moz of gold to the resource.
Management are hoping to prove up some 5moz of gold in the region over time within 588sqkm concession package.
Condor recently agreed the sale of the Poterillos concession to Nicoz Resources for US$555,000 after tax.
Condor Gold has appointed SP Angel as sole broker representing the company for investors.
Conclusion: Condor is working towards the financing and development of a substantial gold mine in Nicaragua. The team have permits for the first two pits and are likely to add look likely to add two more satellite pits to the mine plan in the near term. Our examination of the geology supports the companies view of further significant expansion potential to the gold resources in the region.

Potrerillos sold for US$600k with no resource. The Rio Luna concession is worth at least US$2M to US$5M. Mineral resource is 86,000 oz gold. 18km of epithermal veins have been trenched. there is a good map on Condor's website that shows the 86,000 oz gold is in 5 separate mineral resources. the website says First Point Minerals spent US$1.8m on exploration. The Andrea vein looks to be 5km long, First point drill 3 outcrops along strike with 500m gaps, trench result 2.6m at 128.9g/t gold and shallow drilling 2.7m true width at 15.8g/t gold and 3.1m true width at 13.5g/t gold. Infill drilling in the gaps should significantly increase the mineral resource.

Tester123, it looks like immediate payment to me? Payment now, access now, transfer by Minstry takes a few months.

The bigger non core concession is Rio Luna close to La Libertad mine. Condor owns 100% of the 43km² Rio Luna concession, with a total of 58 diamond drill holes completed for a total of 6,250m drilled. Independent geologists SRK Consulting (UK) Ltd had estimated a JORC compliant Inferred Mineral Resource of 65 kt at 3.5 g/t gold for 80,000 oz gold and 28 kt at 56 g/t silver for 500,000 oz silver on the Concession using this drilling and trenching data. Condor should either sell to Calibre or negotiate an earn in drilling agreement to increase the resource to 500,000 oz gold (if possible) and sell to Calibre to feed La Libertad. Currently zero value in Condor's share price for Rio Luna

CNBC article about M&A in the gold sector: This year has seen 348 deals worth more than $30.5 billion, including net debt, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
That is up from $10.8 billion last year and surpasses a previous high of $25.7 billion set in 2010, the data show. Gold topped $1,900 per ounce in 2011 and currently trades around $1,484, after hitting a six-year high in September.

last week, Jijin Mining's US$1Billion acquisition of TSX listed Continental Gold, is notable as an all cash transaction of a very large gold asset in Columbia, 80% constructed. This is a first all cash deal in the current M&A cycle. What are the takeaways for Condor shareholders? 1) the US$1Bn cash will be paid to investors who will probably re-invest the cash back in the sector, in similar permitted, pre-construction gold assets e.g. more cash available to buy Condor shares. 2) Buyers are waiting until projects are completely de-risked and 6 months away from pouring gold before they buy, but then they are happy to pay up. Buyers don't want the hassle of buying land, fully engineering the Project etc 3) the Chinese have deep pockets and could well be the surprise player to consolidate the gold market e.g it is not just TSX and ASX listed players. Will the Chinese secure a 20 year supply of gold as they have done for base metals e.g to back a convertible currency or back their muted state backed crypto-currency. 4) Columbia is a lot more challenging place to do business than Nicaragua, just look at several projects that have been blocked from being developed

M&A is hotting up in the mining sector. It will trickle down to the best gold exploration/development companies that have superb assets and in my view Condor is at the top of the list. It owns 100% of La India, unlike every gold asset in Africa. Has 2.4M oz gold that can be double to 5M oz gold. Has v high grade at over 4.0g/t gold. Has AISC $690 in the PFS, which is lower quartile globally. Permits have been granted to construct and operate the mine.

in the last 10 days Kirkland Lake Gold has bought Detour for C$4.7billion and Evolution Mine has bought the loss making Red Lake mine for US$375M. Consolidation of the producers will continue and 2020 will see a scramble to buy the best exploration/development companies that are permitted.

Seingred, Ross Beaty participated in the last placement, investing £250,000, see announcement. Not much for him, but a good sign of confidence maintaining his percentage shareholding. Since Ross Beaty's initial investment in Condor he has formed Equinox Gold via a 3 way merger. He is Chairman and the biggest shareholder, Ross Beaty has raised US$150M for Equinox from Mubadala the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. Equinox is Ross's gold vehicle, he is on record of saying there is a target of 500,000 oz gold p.a the near term. His hands are tied, he can only invest relatively small amounts in other gold companies. The Equinox Gold investors want him focused on Equinox

Tester123. Note that 4-5 weeks ago Calibre announced they had put a ball mill with capacity of 2,000tpd on idle, reducing overall capacity to circa 4,200tpd. This was for economic reasons. B2Gold had been processing low grade ounces, that were hardly economic. Secondly, last week, Calibre announced a suspension on underground explosives used in underground mining because it had allegedly cause subsidence in circa 20 houses. This could be a bigger problem as the underground mining is typically the higher grade ore of 4g/t to 6g/t gold that is mingled/blended with the lower grade ore.
There are no reserves or resources at La Libertad, hence the 40,000m drilling to extend the mine life.

Excellent interview! 3 or 4 times he mentioned minimum dilution. The market is expecting a US$120M financing for the plant producing 120,000 oz gold pa. At 60:40 debt to equity, it is at least a $50M placement. Dilution concerns are holding back the share price, but what if there is no or very little dilution? The market has got this wrong. In reply to a question MC says there are 3 ways to cashflow: Toll Refining, high grade the permitted pit, no capex as using someone else's plant. Smaller mill, "what can we build for $30M to $40M via a gold loan?" high grade the permitted pit, bring in the high grade feeder pits of 5.5g/t gold, produce 40,000 to 50,000 oz gold per annum, $15M free cashfllow. A 2 stage approach to 150,000 oz gold production. Finally, just build the big plant for $120M, but that's too dilutive and clearly he doesn't want to do as he and Jim Mellon have 20% of the equity

Rothrock, it is excellent that Calibre is drilling 40,000m at La Libertad and Pavon before end 2020. A great sign of confidence in Nicaragua given the troubles last year. La Libertad is running out of ore and of course Calibre's bet is they can find more ore and extend the Life of Mine. It will take at least 24 months to bring a new discovery into production (absolute minimum), even if it is an extension of an existing mineral resource. 12 months to drill and at least 12 month for the technical studies: geotechnical, hydrology and the other dozen technical studies and then permits. The application process for an exploration permit is 12 months minimum. Condor could starting trucking ore within 3 to 4 months. its permitted, good to be mined
Calibre can pay for their 40,000m drilling by toll refining permitted high grade ore from la India. drill for free.
Imagine the 2,000tpd gets switched back on and calibre make $40 per tonne free cash flow, after operating costs: 350 days x 2,000tpd x $40 per tonne = US$28M net to Calibre. Why $40 per tonne, because Condor can high grade La India open pit at 4g/t gold. therefore at $1,450 gold, 4 gram rock = $186 per tonne.

Rockroth, why are you so sure they will be no toll refining? Calibre has announced it has put one of the ball mills at La Libertad on idle, they reduces capacity by 2,000tpd to circa 4,200tpd. So there you have it, there is an operating mill, within trucking distance with 2,000tpd space capacity, currently unutilised. Condor can high grade its permitted pit at say 4 to 5g/t gold and fill that idle ball mill. The grade is high enough for both Calibre and Condor to make money. Can be a revenue or profit sharing agreement. Calibre has a sunk cost of G&A and paid cash for an under utilised plant.
Trucking 5 to 6 hours from Pavon ? there is only 80k oz gold at Pavon, no reserves, only inferred material. no wonder they have to do more drilling

The Zurich presentation say offers have been made to all landowners. That is a big advancement.

Condor has over 300 hectares and need 500 hectares for the mine.. almost there!

3 years ago Condor and B2Gold settlement a dispute over an NSR and became good mates. The settlement involved Condor acquiring over 3,000 hectares of "possession rights" from B2Gold. What is the significance? B2Gold's predecessor has already bought this 3,000 hectares at La India but never took physical possession, this meant B2Gold lost the right to this land. it should make it easier for Condor to buy land from people who have already sold it once to a mining company.

Bigjamie, have you read or listened to any of the recent presentations at Denver Gold Forum or read the recent interim report which contains a details Chairman's statement and operational report and the Management Analysis and Discussion of the accounts filed on the TSX or the recent permitting update? i have read this information and it answers your question.

Condor has raised £5.8M (US$7M) this year, with £4M in July. £2M was a vote of confidence from a new investor Nicaraguan Milling Company, who have built mines in Nicaragua...the Company has cash for 12 months. The announcement says Condor is buying all the land for the mine site infrastructure, which is a significant de-risk for any Project. The Company is completing all the studies fro the Government as a condition of the permit to construct and operate the mine. This is unsexy news flow, but essential, again details in the announcements. Produce final designs for the tailings storage facility, water management systems for the mine etc. The aim is to get the project ready for construction. Then La India is completely de-risked and on a plate for financing or selling.

Calibre's acquisition of B2Gold's mine is voted on next week in a general meeting. MC confirmed he met Calibre's new CEO at the Denver Gold Forum. Once Calibre acquisition is competed on 15 Oct, toll refining negotiation should be able to continue with the new owners, who should wasn't a deal to reduce losses from their mines.

Some of you guys have little understanding how companies work and particularly the exploration, discovery, maiden mineral resources, maiden mineral reserves, permitting, construction and production. Each phase needs different people with different skill sets that are hired and often let go. Condor's directors own 20% of the shares, have raised US$60M in the last 8 years and attracted world class investors. They get it. In the exploration and discovery stage you need exploration geologists. Condor hired Dr Luc English who did and excellent job drilling up 2.4M oz gold from nothing, drilled 60,000m with several geologists. Converting mineral resources to mineral reserves getting a PFS needs mining engineers, resource geologists, and lot of consultants to do all the technical and economic studies, Condor hired world class SRK in Cardiff. Condor hired Dave Crawford, ex Newmont study director and mining engineer, he remains Chief Technical Officer. The permitting phased needed a senior local, Condor hired a former mine superintendent from B2Gold, Aiser Sarria the current General Manager. The social, environmental team got beefed up. The recent £4M placement sees the project progress to be "shovel ready" for construction, final engineering designs and buying the land...no doubt these teams get beefed up. When it comes to construction, an "owners team" of civil engineers, construction engineers, mining engineers, metallurgist etc get hired to take the Project through construction with an EPCM contractor. For the operational phase the construction and civil engineers go and mining engineers run the show with mine geologists. So for the idiots who think it is sensible to have an operational team in place before construction begins and there is no mine to operate for over 12 months think again...it is a quick way to bankrupt the company. For the dumbos who think hiring a construction team before the engineering designs are completed and land purchased and conditions of the permit fulfilled, think again, you would be wasting money on expensive expat salaries with people doing nothing for several months. The Directors are smart and know this, they have have done an excellent job in conserving cash and progressing the Project through each phase and hiring excellent people to execute each phase despite permitting set backs and political set backs, both of which can be expected in a frontier market.