Member Info for Adw198

@lucky

“ I personally wouldn't hold Thx for LOM extension news of Douta PFS. As I said those are replacement production newss NOT production expansion, hence more or less already priced in....“

Not sure I follow the logic here. We currently produce circa 90k oz.

The criticism has been the limited LOM, which was priced in. But even IF they don’t find another ounce at Segilola, Douta isn’t really just a replacement, it’s an extension because they’ll be another 10+ years (admittedly at the same level)of production. Obviously most of us think a much more likely outcome is at least some LOM extension which means we’ll potentially have more production per year as well. All of that excludes any possible increase in production from the Ivory Coast too.

I have no issue with anyone trading, no issue with non holders posting and no issue with people sharing bearish views. All ideas welcome, best idea wins!

“Would be nice to see some of these bullish opinion, been backed by data and numbers comparison to a meaningful benchmark, not just backed by pure faith and believes on own interest”.

This is by far the best board I’ve come across in terms of sharing exactly the kind of data based projections you want. Of course not all the data exists, which is why we’re all also speculating. For example, we don’t know what next years production will be, the AISC or the POG. But it’s reasonable to run some projections based on history of let’s say 85k @ $1000 AISC. If we take a conservative POG of $3500 across the year that’s $212m profit. We were told there are 2.5 years of mine life if we don’t find another ounce. So even if you don’t believe we will there’s still some immense cash being built up in the next 2 years, which then gets deployed at the new jurisdictions. Play around with the variables and make your own conclusions.

This board is great at politely / constructively challenging assumptions and projections. I’m less bullish than some about how long they’ll extend Segilola by, but then I was also less confident about the Osun state issue. Fair exchanges even of disagreement often take place here.

Nobody has all the answers but all the right questions get explored here.

The quality of the posts and posters is actually an added plus to the investment case here for me. The biggest brains seem well onboard!

“SP ticked up after close”

It’s 16.17 here, WOS.

Even a broken clock is usually right twice a day - but not if you’re not on the same time zone. :)

I suppose if they got say 5+ years extra from Segilola that could reasonably happen as it’s such a cash machine and underpins the rest of the portfolio.

One of my reasons for selling was I’d been a bit underwhelmed with the updates on LOM extension. Given how long they’ve told us they’d been drilling I’d expected a bit more certainty by now. Eg in that recent interview he said there was 2.5years left “if we don’t find another ounce”.

I’m probably being overly pedantic but surely we know for a fact there are additional ounces. Perhaps he just meant they (the additional ounces) haven’t been formally scoped etc.

Seems the plan is to release the first LOM extension but continue to drill for further ones. Would be nice if he can secure another tax holiday too!

It’s such a cracking company, printing cash whilst still having blue sky exploration excitement.

Some great analysis on here as ever, thanks all.

I’m one of those who sold too early, having been in around 15p and sold them under 50p.

However, I then bought back in the last dip to the 50s, selling in the 70s.

I bought back at 65p last week because the more I look around the more I still see value and opportunity here. Of course I don’t expect it to 4 bag again, but the downside risk is now very limited so I’m super relaxed despite mistiming my latest buy. That’s partly because there’s just so much margin even if gold drops away (like many others I don’t think it’s finished yet), the jurisdictional diversification - and the fact we have an ever growing pile of cash.

My ego didn’t love paying 65p for something I’d sold for much less, but as I said I still think it’s a great buy so shouldn’t let that earlier mistake dictate.

I agree re Gazelle, albeit we need to know what it can produce.

I disagree H2 is a win win. If it’s not commercial that’s a bad result which will be reflected in the SP reaction imo.

Must be news this week so we’ll soon know!

@Tt1981 We’re awaiting the binary outcome of H2. We don’t know whether it’s good or bad, but if the former the SP will indeed react well.

What do you think will happen if it’s not commercial?

My understanding is they’re trying to see if H2 is commercial in its own right. Last year it only showed potential to do 30bopd so they suspended it. They then analysed the chance of getting it to be commercial at circa 75% by using an acid wash. It’s now 2 months since they started work on it.

Separately, they’ve said IF it’s not commercial they’ll look to see if it can be used as an injector for H1.

My suspicion / hunch is the length of time it’s taking might be reflective of the fact it’s not commercial and they’re wanting to get the injector question answered before releasing the news.

“Think we are set for a better than expected result from H2 and keep in mind it has already been completed so will just keep on pumping oil and adding to our revenues.“

Abzzba and his own expectations again! So you’ve said to expect at least a 300% increase from the current 150bopd.

So you’re expecting H2 and Gazelle to deliver 300bopd, or 150bopd.

If they do less you’ll be disappointed and say so then, right?

Yes I did the same on gazelle result, but I’m less confident about H2 given how long it’s taking.

Remarkable to think it’s nearly a year since the first result!

I apologise to TT1981 - he did indeed make some top ups at / around the lows.

Let me help you out Abzzba, if you expect it to be better than you expect, then you need to amend your expectations.

What do you expect it to produce as a stabilised output?

It’s still morning here, WOS.

Is this intel better or worse than the stuff you shared when the SP was materially higher than it is today and you were imploring people to buy?

Imagine needing to crash and burn so many profiles! In fairness I can see why he does it gone so many fall for it / pretend to fall for it out of self interest.

What’s your thinking still holding Doc? I was impressed with Gazelle but H2 seems uncertain and I think a good (commercial) result feels priced in a bit now. That said, if they do manage to get 3 wells producing the future seems a lot clearer and gives a good base to build from. Obviously still need a deal to sell the oil and that to be honoured but it does seem the darkest days could be in the past.

Better than whose expectations, Abzzba?

Yours?!

The company’s?!

Mine?!

“Hopefully NO ONE will fall for ADW198's very clumsy attempts at sabotaging sensible discussion with pointless focus on nonsense.”

WOS, this a int your 6th profile and you’ve been exposed talking utter nonsense on each occasion. Your current username specifically chosen to cause disruption in an attempt to mimic me. Just because Thorn pretends (out of typical self interest) not to know what you’re upto don’t think those of us with integrity and a brain can’t see you and your stupid headers for what they are.

If you are invested your losses must be huge. Lovely!

Speaking of which yes TT1981 feel free to prove your average and buy in the 60s.

Ff08

Hotmail

Co.uk

I’ll happily send you my buys / sells here first - I just ask you post on here confirming you were wrong and I was a holder

“He's obsessed with averages as it's material to help him taunt with- typical of the manipulative behaviour of a sociopath, and it's also a way for him to feel that he has some kind of power and dominance over you through knowing this.”

Perhaps investor has forgotten him goading me about selling for 1.81p when the SP hit 2.40p for about an hour?

Perhaps he’s all forgotten checking out then mocking what other shares anyone who posts negatively about MATD says?

Or perhaps he’s a sociopath with the inability to self reflect.

Maybe all 3!

@tt1918

Wow, you’re done a great job of bringing down the 2p average with buys you didn’t announce. Fair play if true but sadly for you we both know you’re fibbing

Tenbag, given you’re just a troll who is perhaps the worst ramper out there, I won’t get involved too much.

But given you mock other people’s losses, averages and investment size£, how about you share your own losses here?

Alternatively perhaps you should get back to Telegram where the likes of Dozzerwba lap it up. The grown ups here will continue to call you out.

And…where’s the ramping main man WOS?! Hilarious none of you seem bothered :)

HIS version of events is he intended to buy £2k worth and accidentally bought £20k. That was 6 years ago, so his (inherited) money has been tied up since.

He doesn’t own any other AIM shares and swears by charting - until it doesn’t work next year (only last year) and then he invents a new theory and area of expertise.

He’s said he’ll never buy another AIM stock yet opines here like some kind of expert.

He’s a proper t w a t and his losses are a great source of amusement