Member Info for Adw198

@Research

Why did the company say they needed to INCORPORATE gazelle to the agreement?

Further, your statement does NOT say the oil will be sold / us paid. PC received all the oil from Heron1 and didn’t pay anything for several months - we just paid them to store it.

Pay close attention to what’s being said and not just what you wish to be true

To be fair Tt1981 I think the bad news is now largely priced in, ie I wouldn’t anticipate much more of a negative drop if / when they say it’s not commercial. I suspect they’ll run out of time to try it as an injector so they’ll probably dangle that carrot for next year too.

I did think it was pretty obvious tho that good news would lead to the SP going up and bad news would lead to a drop!

“Wouldn’t put it passed them to come up with another load of BS ref payments over winter”

Dozza is right - if , as even the ramping crew acknowledge, PC have been playing games, why would they suddenly change and start handing over more money?

They haven’t paid a single invoice correctly or on time. They won’t be rushing to amend the wording, or sign it - let alone to make it good and pay. Let’s not forget this is a contract that was negotiated for years and it took 3 months to physically sign it.

I doubt we’ll be getting paid for gazelle to because they said the agreement needed amending there too..

.”The oil sales agreement with Block XIX has provisions within it for additional wells to be brought onstream and the incorporation of Gazelle-1 production is already under discussion”.

Unnd’s grasp on the figures is unparalleled here - as is his ability to not get drawn into the nonsense.

Unless the renewables delivers pretty soon I think this is largely a binary bet on whether you think they’ll be a farm in deal. Otherwise it’s basically treading water and unsure where to drill next on Heron.

I fully accept that Harchris. The raise isn’t a huge point but it was worth mentioning and definitely worth correcting the salty comment from Kv.

I don’t think they’ll struggle to raise at all and it’ll presumably only be a small amount (few million). I’d imagine they’ll do it privately with DOID for a 20ish % discount.

If they hand out anything like today’s value back to shareholders it’s a great buy as you’ll get your money back and a free ride on the remaining company / asset (if I’ve understood it correctly)

My concerns would be whether the deal completes (we have previous here) and how much they’ll hand back to shareholders. I suspect they’ll be keen to retain a significant amount for Beutong. That’s going to take significant time and resources to progress.

Pleased it’s moved on from the endless cycle of Feasibility studies and failed attempts to finance. DOIDs interest and motivation remains an odd one here - I don’t understand why they aren’t taking it on themselves .

@k3mvc

It’s fine thanks, I’m pretty comfortable in concluding they’ll be a raise because the company all but told us they’d need one

“As at 30 September 2025, the Company had cash resources of approximately US$1.47 million and, accordingly, notwithstanding the proposed Disposal, the Company may raise further working capital in the near term.“

Ha loving that take (and offer!)

@harchris

“Surely it’s 2.5p a share final price? Or at least close to that. Seems to be some arbitrage gain to be had right now…”

I’d be very careful. They’re going to keep the business going chasing th Beutong Rainbow, so the amount to be returned is unclear - but won’t be 2.5p. Plus they’ll be a raise before then to keep the lights on.

“Mb stated 150 bpd covered costs”

He did, but it doesn’t. Or it certainly doesn’t cover all the expenditure such as the obligations on the new licences, the costs of running the renewables. It’s also why he apparently had to sacrifice 70% of his salary, altho I expect they’ll be a large dollop of self interest payback to come there.

That’s why they again had to raise and probably will next year if they want to do anything other than tread water (unless a deal comes in).

I’m also sceptical at the ability of Gazelle to sustain or improve on 200bopd. When H1 came on they briefed several times about quick cheap fixes to improve its initial 200-300bopd and instead is decreased down to the current 150bopd. Perhaps Gazelle will be different…

What’s the numbers / logic behind saying 350bopd is cash flow positive?

It’s probably right but gown you made the same claims about 150bopd I’m wondering if your just making things up?

Also funny to hear you speaking of derisking and avoiding raises - both of which you dismissed this year.

Incredible isn’t Doc, excuse after excuse from the crew here. The same people who told us to expect 550bopd are now telling us how happy they are with 350bopd. And we’ll only be getting 70% of that anyway until PC amend, sign and then pay the owed money. This isn’t our first rodeo with them in such matters so the confidence all those things will be done this month is misplaced.

Peak Investor this morning too, who now includes a claim algorithmic trading bots scan RnS for words like disappointing. Technology seems to be progressing since 12 months ago when it was apparently literally just about selling every November / December and buying back early the next year. That 10 year chart appears to have gone about as quiet as Proquo did when the raise he swore wouldn’t happen arrived. Lovely!

Of course he should update the market on the not small matter of trying to recover a years worth of withheld income. Similarly of course he as to report H2s latest disappointing performance. Just because it’s bad news it’s still news - don’t shoot the messenger lads

I know what it said Abzzba because I quoted the exact passage - which itself was in response to you falsely claiming they’d said it was “PROBABLY a mechanical issue”.

They didn’t say that, it’s pretty clear you’re therefore either mistaken or seeking to mislead. Again.

“Could have swore the RNS said probably a mechanical issue at H2.”

Well you wrong again Abzzba they certainly didn’t say probably they said

“which may indicate some form of down hole mechanical issue or potentially an obstruction of the perforations.”

Turns out “no news is good news” was further BS, it seems.

Plus there’s this

“Production data from the well will help to refine the estimation of the connected reservoir volume and to guide decisions on potential appraisal well locations”.

The above was about Gazelle but Id presume the above is also true of Heron. The more they drill the better they understand the geology and their assumptions.

Will Heron 3 be more like Heron 1, or Heron 2? I’m saying I don’t know.

It would certainly worry me that the closest possible location to H1 is looking a dud. If, as you used to claim, it was miles away on the periphery of the field I’d be less worried. All with a caveat that I’m not a specialist in Mongolia oil fields!

No Thorn, I don’t know that it follows that all wells will be like Heron. Let me present Exhibit A…Heron 2.

You call the geology identical. The company tell us otherwise.

Heron 2 being successful would have made a deal more likely imo. It not being so therefore is a negative.

You’re entitled to see it differently. Do you?

Hi Doc

Yes Gazelle certainly helps support the SP, in the short term. I don’t know how problematic Heron 2 will be tho to the likelihood of getting a deal but at a minimum is a negative factor. Are the H2 issues going to be typical of the field - I honestly don’t know the implications.

No the wet wipe Tenbag choose not to email me or message me on Telegram, after calling it on. Imagine my surprise!

I didn’t see gazelle today as that positive because it was already known Doc. I suppose the 200bopd was slightly more than I personally expected but generally the price rise to account for gazelle already happened imo. It doubled!

Heron 2 probably being non commercial after another 9ish weeks work is not good at all so the SP reacted accordingly. Less income, less chance of a deal really.

I believe Tt1981, he’s proven himself by announcing his buys and before printed and he seperately emailed me a link.

He may not thank me for giving this opinion tho as the lads will accuse him of being or working with me!

Gazelle good news was already largely known / priced in. Today’s drop is because H2 is looking like a dud and to a lesser extent because there’s no other good news (personally I didn’t expect it do the reasons given)