Member Info for Adw198

“They need to get a move on and accept a proposal otherwise the farm in partner won’t be able to plan for 2026 operations”

This is a good point, these things don’t happen overnight and I’m guessing will need Mongolian approval.

Does anyone have any knowledge of a farm in deal in similar circs - my assumption is the early production would be heavily weighted in their favour to repay their capex?

This time last year Heron 1 was doing 200-300bopd and there were hopes to increase it and bring H2 to production.

What a terrible 2025 - especially when you factor in the failure to paid properly.

@manx you called that pretty well!

Negatives

Heron 2 - despite the no news is good news narrative and alleged satellite images proving production it’s once again failed. Terrible result.

H1 - no numbers given, I’m assuming further decline.

Gazelle - no numbers given, problems encountered. Not been doing 200bopd.

PC deal still not even amended (renegotiated) let alone signed and paid.

Absolutely no chance has MATD ever received $100k.

Positive

An offer has been received for the farm in. Given the well performance it remains to be seen how good it is.

Not fully digested the renewables.

“ for the life of me why i would want a chat with you”

Cool story. Except you logged on a hour ago solely to liaise with me. Starting with a bizarre angry lie and went downhill from there.

Zero comments on the company or the “news”. Nope, not got the intellect for that.

And I’m the stalker :)

You’ve sobered up!

As I say I cba with you logging on purely to goad - tell us your company views please Mal?

Wow - I like a drink on a Thursday but you’ve really gone for it!

I’ll stick to the company chat mate, email me if you want to keep ranting :)

@mal

“you stated you had no appetite for risk”

I doubt that, I invest on AIM! Risk MANAGEMENT is important.

My comments on H2 are there to be read. As are yours - remember why you (told us) sold last time?

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the “news” and the rise?

I think the ability to analyse things objectively, assessing both sides of an argument is a great skill. As is the ability to appreciate other views, irrespective of whether I agree. The truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

A 40% rise based on announcing a presentation is remarkable. One of the reasons I enjoy following this stock - it appeals to the gambler in me.

Uestions

1. What was the $500k production bonus as stated in the accounts?

2. How much oil has been projected from H1 and other wells for the 2025/26 year

3. What is the budgeted expenditure for 25/26

4. What has been agreed regarding salary sacrifice?

5. Are you still looking into selling the oil directly to market without PC?

“Because I keep asking you to stop endlessly replying to those who are clearly posting to get a rise out of you Ten (and succeding - you muppet)?”

Wow. I know you’re here to talk your own book Thorn, but the idea that we’re baiting them as opposed to vice versa is bold. Tell me the last company related post either of those 2 made that you thought added anything?!

Funny seeing how precious the lads are when someone else doesn’t act exactly as they want though. Even on the back of a 40% rise the kids start throwing their toys.

There was some good company chat today overall too.

Cracking move.

It’s the kind of move I expected if H2 was confirmed commercial, so for me that good news is sort of price in now (with a risk if it’s not).

Obviously other potential catalysts

PC payment resolution (going forward and the back payment

>200bopd at gazelle

Meaty Renewables update

Farm out

I have to say, the previous spikes this year (especially those based purely on speculation) resulted in almost symmetrical retracement. So widows and orphans might want to bank some cash!

Suspect we’ll know by 07.05 Tuesday.

You must know more about RBL in Mongolia than me, Thorn! I go off what MB said which was a lender would want to see an established record of production (I’m paraphrasing).

“Almost guaranteed oil” is pretty ambitious given the experience of Heron - 1 declining well and an unknown status on H2 after 14months!

“Either way production ramp should be underway.”

A partner with deep pockets is required as there isn’t enough money being generated to self fund

@thorn

You might be onto something re Gazelle. It wouldn’t be a total shock if the news was H2 wasn’t successful so we’re going to focus on further Gazelles next year, rather further Herons.

As I’ve say though I marginally favour the news being H2 has been brought on (perhaps with a low flow rate)

Feel free to plug your own figures in Abzzba, I wasn’t looking to re start a debate about what we get.

“If we assume $70 Brent then after price…it nets $43”

When Brent is $61 I think taking a net back of $35 is broadly fair. But as I say you can give your own calcs

I did some calcs on H1. If it averages 164bopd x 365 days = 59860 barrels.

If we net back $35 that’s returns just short of $2.1m.

So each producing well takes 2 years to pay for itself - not too bad tbf. The key is knowing how long it’ll sustain at that rate?

Interestingly this is what they told us about Gazelles pay back

“A well test at Gazelle, if successful in achieving a similar production rate to Heron 1, would pay back within a couple of months”

A couple of months - what have I misunderstood here?

@ababzza

It’s not Docs theory or contention, it was Tenbags. Doc like me knows it’s nonsense

We know the answer to Doc.

I think a better question would be “do you expect H1 to continue to decrease its production and if so for how long?”

@Wigster

Obviously they said they expected an initial 200-300, but they only told us that after the fact. This is why it would be good to get projections - I appreciate they might not always come good (as in any business) but how else can investors make informed decisions?

It’s like them (now) saying 164bopd average over a year is one of the better wells. I don’t think even the “negs” expected so little.

So the facts as we know them are it costs $4m to bring a well to production, crocs 1 in 2 wells don’t produce and if you average 164bopd it’s one of the better ones.

I don’t find that compelling and suspect that’s why they don’t share projections. But they must have them - how else can the budget and how a cash runway timeline?

“we let ourselves get carried away by focusing on the part that said: DST2 flowed oil at a peak rate of 821 bopd”

“We” is an interesting choice of words.