Member Info for Adw198

@doc

“Surely you’d want all that back for Heron plus a bit on top, even if only to compensate for the opportunity cost of that $45m?”

I’m sure one would want that, but life (and especially AIM) doesn’t work like that.

Do you believe MB / the board would (rightly or wrongly) recommend the sale of a partial asset for the full current MCAP?

The figure is a fair issue for debate but the principle of a sale makes (AIM!) sense I reckon

Slightly surprised there wasn’t more chat flowing from Investor’s theory re selling Heron. I suppose it undermines some investment theories tho.

@doc I was wary of giving a figure but let’s say Petrovis offered £20m (ie the full MCAP) for Heron alone. And let’s say they said if rejected they wouldn’t join a raise. I think MB would be delighted with that, it would secure the future of the company and give a war chest to build the renewables and new fields (at $500k per year). Lots of manjana jam whilst the locals take the profit from Heron. Very plausible imo.

Similarly one could say what if PC made the same offer and said if elected they wouldn’t sign the sales deal. Surely that would be recommended by the Board?

Happy to hear sensible alternative figures. Selling a part of a business for the full MCAP can’t be that common?

And I actually think both of the above make it a good investment compared to the (realistic) alternatives.

Very fair summary from Investor.

Sell Heron and concentrate on the new blocks / renewables seems very plausible for all concerned.

I’m going to go as far as predicting this outcome.

I think it’s a very plausible consideration, although I think it’s a massive over reach to say the Facebook post “clearly indicates” the sale of Block20.

In the event of a sale who would you see as most likely buyers? I wasn’t sure about PC as seemingly they don’t have the best relationship with Mongolia. Petrovis would make sense on many levels.

For the avoidance of doubt I believe a sale of block 20 would send the SP well up from here, albeit all of the fanciful assertions wouldn’t come good.

Hi Gravy

I went a day without posting anywhere and you still went on thx to talk about me.

I can only imagine how much you must be down to be this obsessed about things you don’t like to read - but choose too! :)

@thorn

“Why not decide to get rich with MATD?”

Nothing wrong with believing mate, but at least be honest about how much the family empire has so far wasted here?

How much are you down? And do you think that qualifies you to be so bold here?

@thorn

“The fact is though that one or two good flowing wells would be able to fund quite a few more wells being drilled”

Can you define what a good flowing means in volume and the numbers behind your “fact”, ie what these 2 wells would return as a profit and how that feeds into overall company costs?

@investor and your famous 10 year chart

“and if you bother to look at a 10 year chart you will notice that the share price has often retreated to around to this kind of level in the past”

Which year(s) did the SP get down to 1.30p at all, let alone trade in that range for so long?

I sense you were being flippant Jimi with

“40 wells in 16 working months so roughly 2 wells drilled from the start of 2025 drilling season…”

But joking aside I think investors (and potential investors) need to consider that not every drill will

lead to a producing well. I’ve not got the link / figures to hand that Abzzba shared re PC but I think it was something like a 2 in 3 success rate. If that’s replicated then that’s a lot of spend to factor in. I’d imagine you’d have a better idea the more you drill so the early yards will probably be the hardest.

Yes Thorn, although you’ll note I didn’t say anything about all the other issues, I was just correcting your assertion that this current position of being a producer unable to sell was (hopefully) not MB’s “plan”. I do agree it was the better option than not producing at all though.

I await with interest confirmation there’s now a deal and an export licence and broader clarification on the 2025 programme. Resources need to be allocated to H1 improvements, H2 improvements, Gobi well test, the new blocks, renewables and those pesky tea and biscuits bills aka corporate overheads. On top of presumably H3 / 4 etc.

Not all will be possible.

His plan wasn’t to start producing without an agreement to sell the oil being signed.

That’s where we ended up because he couldn’t get the deal done despite the massive delays to production. Yes it was also reliant on 3rd parties but nevertheless he didn’t do his job in this regard.

There won’t be a lump sum either imo. I doubt any payment will land in March, it needs trucking to the buyer who presumably then pay PC.

Oh dear Thorn, I don’t think a great deal of you but even I thought you were better than “cover blown” nonsense.

Similarly, claiming “Unless of course it's an official document, which it is, that may well be being signed off at a Government level meeting with a discussion followed by a vote?”. We’re talking about a company signing a contract. A contract that they’ve know is coming for years.

I said “I’d anticipate *at least* a 10% move“ - I personally think it’d be 20% ish but even 10% equates to sticking circa $20m onto the company value.

Hopefully we’ll soon find out either way!

You said yourself (quote below) it was the likely catalyst Harchris. For it to be a catalyst it must be material - that’s my view.

“I’m guessing it’ll come following Osun state update and Douta PFS, that’s the combination that could have maximum impact…”

I disagree about the market not being wary Harchris - the price crashed when the news came out. Yes it’s now made its way higher than it was in September but obviously gold has kicked on again since then and we’ve gone net cash etc.

Essentially I think we’d be higher still with the issue and a positive resolution will lead to jump if / when announced. All speculative, I guess we’ll never know.

If / when they RNS that it’s been settled completely in our favour then I’d anticipate at least a 10% move up. To me it’s therefore very much an issue / story / risk.

Obviously we’ll all figure out for ourselves how much of one and the likelihood of that outcome

He has everyone’s details but isn’t going to do anything with them until the government investigate what’s going here. Definitely sounds plausible that doesn’t it?!

It’s incredible how stupid he is.

Andrew Walsh

They’re assessing Gobi to decide whether it warrants a well test. Not sure what Mike Buck is supposed to have said more than that. Presumably they’ll know by now and it’ll be part of the 2025 programme that was being finalised 3 months ago.

Ridiculous that someone can repeatedly make accusations of criminal behaviour from posts they insist they can’t read.

It really is very odd that it’s taking 1month and counting to sign the contract. I’m sorry but that just doesn’t sound that plausible. This is a revenue generator for PC so in theory they should

want to get it signed too. It’ll be very interesting to see what comes out in the next update.

On another front I just re read the Gobi RNS comments and they suggested it’ll have a well test so that’s further expenditure unless they just bin it off.

“The Company will then determine the forward programme, which is anticipated to involve a well test…”

Just so we’re clear WOS and Tenbag are adamant there won’t be a raise.

Let’s see who is right, who is wrong - and how whoever is wrong handles it.

Incredible that Proquo and Abzzba get so offended by being called thick - having spent weeks alleging CRIMINAL behaviour by me and others. I wonder which of the 2 allegations “thick” or “illegal” would be likely to be considered libellous. And which is true!