Member Info for adoubleuk

Slipanchor,

"A very good analysis AK good to see you back at the poker table.

Thank you. But not back at the table, just being a 'railbird' in the background as an observer, interested in the action !

"the basement must be in contact with and indirectly draining the sandstones already"

Yes, of course they're both in contact. And yes, what you describe is rather what the Bod would like us to believe, according to their original 'kitchen sink' RNS. However something strikes me as implausible about it, and so far the Bod have been very cagey about issuing a new model of what's happening downhole. Because the reservoir is not some sort of kitchen sink! 'Draining the reservoir' isn't like pulling the plug in a sink! The 'pressure drive is from below. If that pressure reduces, sure, some oil (compressed) will leach down from the sandstones towards the wellbore. But this is only a pressure equalisation mechanism.

In a sink, with the plug pulled, two forces are at work: gravity and atmospheric pressure. So although you are draining the sink whan you pull the plug, you could look at it another way and say you're 'filling the sink with air', displacing the water in order to do so.

However, above the sandstones, there isn't a fluid (or gas) above with which to replace the oil. So oil isn't going to 'drop out' of the sandstones towards the wellbore preferentially to oil being pushed up from below by the aquifer.

This is a lapse, a flaw on the Bod's part, and raises as yet unanswered questions. Dr Trice (think what you may of him) gave an almost continuous running commentary on the technical modelling, explaining what was going on, and what was expected. So far, despite the 'kitchen sinking', the new mob haven't done anything to present a proper 'new model' (army).

Meanwhile, well 6 continues to produce (we hope happily) from fractured basement, just as Dr T predicted...

The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet.

Looks like Bernstein's making a move.

Daltry,

To me, the most 'telling' phrase in the article to which you posted the link is this:

"Ashley Kelty, oil and gas analyst at Panmure Gordon, said the company appeared to have “torn up all its previous work and started again” and is now a takeover target for anyone who wants to “have a punt” on basement plays."

This, I still believe, is the motive behind the current (useless) BoD's strategy. Rid themselves of the 'problem', pass it on to their friends in the 'biggies' at bargain-basement cost. This has been on the cards for a long time. BP and Shell have more or less 'coralled' all Hurricane's acreage by leasing surrounding blocks. They must have done that for a reason.

Halifax doesn't show any more because the company has already said they're relinquishing it. Probably to be snapped up by BP as soon as it comes up for lease again.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. It's an utter parallel with Hoover and Dyson in the past, but for slightly higher stakes. Some 'biggie' will buy out HUR, and shelve it, in the same way that if Hoover had managed to get Dyson, you still wouldn't have 'bagless' vacuum-cleaners.

It'll be as though Fractured Basement didn't exist, or somehow 'doesn't work'.

Slift,

"The current FWP is pretty much no more following the discussions regarding risks and "intelligent completion".
They need to rethink the FWP"

Agree. Because the only so-called Forward planning mentioning anything technical inolve very high risks indeed. I doubt that any more than a handful of contributors here even know what an 'intelligent completion' is, let alone how it works. And I don't understand how an intelligent completion could be got to work in Fractured Basement. Heck, during wireline logging on every well so far, MDT logging was an 85% failure (minimum) for lack of packer sealing. 'Packers don't like FB. And intelligent completions rely upon packers.

I can't help but feel that the BoD are playing for time on an "If you can't blind 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bu***it" basis.

Keepwell,

"I wanted a summary of what happened to Lincoln. "

Which has never been properly explained.

I have concluded (although this is absolute pure speculation and guesswork) that it revolves around some sort of personality-clashes, old grudges, and similar idiocy. Back in the day, Hurricane seemingly had a very good rapport with the OGA. But that seems to have gone sour. And it's the OGA which was instrumental in 'blocking' tieback of Lincoln. Quite possibly because some of them didn't like the idea of Spirit's involvement.

Don't expect 'transparency' in regard to all of this. The oil business doesn't work like that. Outwardly 'transparent' in financial and various other matters, very opaque in others. Like the crude it deals in. Some of the nicest people in the world, but who can be utterly ruthless at times, just to 'prove a point'.

It's not impossible that Dr Trice himself (as a still significant shareholder) might not be involved. He's an incredibly clever chap. Not incapable of bombing his own airfield.

Planted,

"With a sidetrack ... current drilling tools can get where you need to go.. period ... you don’t know that then your not oilfield"

If properly operated, and if you know exactly where it is you want to go. The 'tools' don't do the job. People control that. Just like (I suppose) you control the trajectory of your lorry.

But as you purport to be 'oilfield', would you like to mildly suggest just where a sidetrack of 7z might be 'kicked-off' from, and how? (Don't bother going into detail about pre-abandonment of the current section, it'd get too complicated.)

The entire idea is utter prevaricating hogwash.

BurrenBoy.

"Who's in the driving seat now!"

Obviously you. Have a nice ride in your dodgem-car.

Burrenboy,

"Yes but they can invest the 100 million into a completely new venture that might reap great reward."

What don't you understand?

100 million is peanuts in this evironment. Hurricane is now in a bind. Do more (which will cost momey, which will have to be found somrwhere) or shut down? That will also cost money.

I don't think you underdtand how much it costs expenditure to run an oil opertation of this sort. Nice to see an 'offload' from time to time. But you're talking hundreds of thousands of dollars per day costs.

BurrenBoy,

"What with over 100 million in cash!"

100 million doesn't go a long way, given the sort of game that's going on. Heck, I'm (now) a grizzly oldtimer dinosaur from way back when' But not brain-dead, and I remember with a certain fondness being involved with the commissioning of Conoco's Murchison platform in 1981, and the drilling of the first four wells. (The first one in a real hurry to meet an October 1st deadline to hit 'online' status, officiated by the Duke of Gloucestershire. Can't keep nobility waiting. Scary work.)

(Murchison has now been dismantled and infrastructure removed, though at an undisclosed sum which probably far exceeded that of installation.)

For a few days, Conoco broke 'dayrate costs' N.Sea records, what with all the people, vessels, and infrastructure installation, not to mention the office in town. For a couple of weeks, the entire operation was chewing though one and a half million a day. And that was back in 1981. Convert that to 'today's money'...

Planted BHA,

"They are an embarrassment to our profession ..."

For once, I completely agree with you.

Dickbat,

"We have some of the cards now in our favour let’s see what the CPR has to offer"

I'd like to see what sort of cards they are ! Probably 'Happy Families' ones, not a deck containing Hearts, Clubs, Diamonds and Spades. Whatever an new CPR says, it will be a considerable downgrade of expected resources and reserves in relation to previous CPR's. And all this talk about sidetracks and water-injectors is obvious pie-in the sky for the moment. As is using phrases such as 'intelligent completions' to pull the wool over existing shareholders' eyes. Sure, 'intelligent completions' exist, but are very complicated and exceedingly expensive. It's just 'Schlumberger-speak'. And heck, between the 'blue army' and Petrofac, they couldn't even manage to drill 7z horizontally.

I strongly suspect that the BoD are scratching their heads about decommisioning costs, rather than budget for further wells. Because it's not just a question of the Aoka Mizu unlatching from the buoy.

As for 'takeover' ? I (imho) feel it's quite unlikely now unless by the Chinese. But given international relations and diplomacy at present, that's unlikely as well.

Planted BHA,

"In practice .. RSS tools can take you where you want to go... no exception ... period .."

That's the biggest laugh I've had all day ! Back on your lorry...

This post from 'Slift' is possibly the best of the day, if not the week, or the month.

"AM is 3 years initial period btw, ending end of 2021. HUR have an option to extend another 3 years to end of 2024, then a second option to extending further until end of 2028 (which was meant to be full field development)"

I am not a betting man, even if I do play poker. And I'm quite prepare to wager any sum with anyone that the Aoka Mizu will be pulling anchors early 2022. 'Experiment' terminated.

Planted,

"Current drilling techniques and Rotary steerable systems can attain any trajectory you want "

In theory, yes. In practice, not always. Petrofac and Schlumberger really screwed the pooch in that respect on 7z, and Dr Trice (being a geologist, not a driller), let 'em go ahead with that.

fandg2,

"It popped into my head that a while back you stated that to sidetrack off the 7 well was a no goer (to put it politely). Not quite a 'steely eyed missile man' but pretty good 'guess' from a long way away if you did."

More than just a 'good guess', but I have no inside info. But I remain one of the 'techies', remember? Which is why I look in from time to time.

Any talk of 'intelligent completions' within fractured basement is pure Schlumberger-driven mumbo-jumbo, and simply won't work. 'Intelligent completions' work (sort of) in very precisely mapped sedimentary reservoirs, but won't on Lancaster. Also they're very expensive, and require expertise and infrastructure that the Aoka Mizu does not possess, and are in no way 'guaranteed' to work.

Bul***t flim-flam being issued by an incompetent BoD.

Daltry.

"A2UK - Great to have you back!"

Thank you.

Not back in cash terms, what little I have remaining.

But like to keep my finger on the pulse, even if it seems weak.

Capt Swag,

"awk - lincoln was finished by November 19 - if my memory is correct - i cant be bothered to trawl through rns. it looked timed to be completed before the weather got worse .I dont remember when halifax was drilled.."

Can't be bothered to go back. But you sure it wasn't 29th November? Plus then there was a two-week hiatus 'waiting on weather' before the tow up to Halifax. Then there was a 'false start' on Halifax, which required another slight rigmove (never properly explained) before restart.

Either way, they were both drilled in winter.

Sure, there's no escaping the fact that WoS, summertime is best. And there's no escaping the fact that the number of rigs capable of working WoS during the winter is decreasing, because the older ones are falling into disrepair, or at least, not being upgraded.

But this is something which I find odd about today's RNS, and its timing. Were any drilling going to take place this year, a 'firm' drilling contract with the contractor would have had to have been already signed. Cause for an RNS. I think there was a tentative one for around now, involving the PBLJ. So what I read into the news is that that contract has been shelved. Which in itself will cost the company 'cancellation costs'.

BeerMunky,

"Maybe they'll wait until tomorrow's 15% dip? Lol."

I suspect a lot of the 'shorts' held here are just colatteral 'insurance' held by bigtime stakeholders (ie bondholders) via 3rd-party companies. And such 'shorts' won't be cashed-in until push comes to shove, in other words when it becomes time for the bonds to be redeemed.

Meanwhile, the share keeps on being day-traded at a stupidly low price, by bottom-feeding day-traders who just love their 2%. Thus ensuring that the share price will remain low, with the result that despite all the good conceptual things underlying, the company will by next year be in danger of going ti** -up. Which would suit BP and Shell just fine.

Cap'tSwag,

"The weather window dictates when the rig and plans have to be made by."

No it doesn't. You're forgetting that both Lincoln and Halifax were drilled during the winter. Today's RNS is pure prevarication. I suspect it was published because some of the big stakeholders have petitioned the BoD for news. And what has been published is 'non-news', anyway. A sidetrack of 7z is going to be expensive and tricky. If it's designed to incorporate an 'intelligent completion' (I won't go into the technicalities) it'll be yet more expensive. And the water-injector is an utterly daft idea.

Despite on or two failings, the main one being that he wouldn't admit to mistakes when they were made, at least Dr Trice had courage and optimism. The current BoD lacks three 'mainstays' of the original team. Trice, Stobie, and the late Neil Platt. In short, they're a bunch of ditherers. The operation is ticking-over, just about paying its way, but only just. They are collecting their directors' salaries. But technically the thing has now become a shambles.

Another of Dr Trice's failings is now obvious. The original sidetrack of well 7 (the now existent 7z) was shoddy. He allowed Petrofac and Schlumberger too much leeway. With the result we see. This company will continue trundling on for a while, the 'fractured basement' concept has been proved correct (thumbs-up to Dr Trice for that, at least !) , but it will take a huge cash input to turn Lancaster into the 'Hurricane Hub' that was being proposed a few years ago.

Plus people like BP, Shell, et al (with money) seem now to be more interested in windfarms and stuff like that, instead of oil.