Member Info for adoubleuk

Gains2Losses,

"No updates on pressure have been provided since September 2020."

Precisely. Seven months ago. It would be interesting to know what the pressures are right now, or maybe a week ago, when the company decided to release a CPR based on data already at least four months old. At least. Though of course, that won't happen.

It would be very embarrassing for the BoD (and ERCE) if it turned out that the water-cut on 7z is indeed 'perched', and is draining...

"ahhh the ominopent one speaks.......handing out pearls of flightly wisdom...."

Recognition is always nice.

Planted,

"Given the graphs in the CPR of 7z well producing 60% water and 30% oil in late 2020, why would you put out an RNS saying your testing both wells again given the 6 well is producing 11600 bbls and stable water cut.."

Just for once, you appear to have parked your truck, rested a bit, and posed a sensible question.

GainstoLosses,

"Has the water cut and bottom-hole pressure data from Lancaster been in line with pre-production estimates, or has it been miles off?"

Miles off, unfortunately. At least, regarding water-cut, which the 'new BoD' love bombarding us with figures about, full of doom and gloom. Actual figures regarding downhole pressures are very hard to find though, however, though that's normal for any company and any oilwell. Confidential in-house information, and unlikely to be understood by a majority of people.

Keepwell,

"Or, Dr.T was right, now he offers his knowledge to CA with his research and Hurricane are battling to fight against this as they would look like fools"

Do you have any evidence for that ? It's a thought which has crossed my mind more than once, but have no proof of it. However I'm sure that Mr Bernstein and Dr Trice both have each other's personal phone number. Also, it mustn't be forgotten that CA invested initially on the 'model' proposed by Dr T. The new BoD have 'kitchen sinked' that model, seemingly, but nevertheless CA are re-investing at the resultant low SP. Which is interesting.

DC,

"Can the CPR by ERCE be relied upon any more than the CPR’s provided by RPS?"

No. And very unfortunately, with 20/20 hindsight, I have to consider RPS's work to be flawed, as well. Leading one to the conclusion that any so-called CPR must be taken with a large pinch of salt. Others have mentioned here that RPS's work contained all sorts of CYA disclaimers, and of course that's true, and understandable. But their technical glossary didn't run to 17 pages ! To my mind, anyone who doesn't understand at least a bit of the basic stuff shouldn't be investing in risky, cutting-edge O&G exploration to start with.

However I disagree with those who have commented here that ERCE's disclaimer that their conclusions are based on SPE guidelines justifies the claim to be 'competent' in the matter. Instead they're just trotting out 'conventional' interpretations, regarding an 'unconventional' reservoir. Just toeing the new company line, in other words. And yes, before anyone starts hammering on their keyboard, maybe RPS was guilty of that too, and Dr T gave an over-optimistic outlook. As mentioned previously, the final publication of the well 7 MDT results horrified me, and somehow RPS (conveniently ?) chose not to include them.

Like many others, this share has been a great disappointment to me personally, as my (once quite considerable) investment made me no money (which is the only reason for investing in anything), caused me lost sleep, and a lot of printer-paper, ink, thought, and time.

So please just read my scribbles here regarding the new CPR as a note of caution. Especially any mentions of water-injector wells. If (IF) Petrofac hadn't taken their eye of the ball, and if (IF) Dr T had spent less time on the rig but more actually running the show rather than granting Schlumberger free reign to do sloppy work, and if (IF) 7z had been drilled with the same diligence as well 6 (ie horizontally), it's quite possible that current headaches might not have occured.

But too late now. Spilt milk.

Mirasol,

Nonsense. The CPR was commissioned by HUR, and I know who wrote it, also I have read it, and also underdstand all the technical 'lingo'. Which maybe you do not, but that's your problem, not mine.

Fevertreeman,

"Wtf ...we should all go to Eashing, stand in the courtyard car park outside their offices and demand answers!"

You've obviously never been there.

I have. It's a nice place, but take car driving over the bridge if your car weighs anything over a ton.

A 'demonstration' outside Hurricane Towers would probably lead to nothing, other than the plod coming in, which would be a shame, given the nice place it is. However, I can thoroughly recommend the 'Stag on the River', the pub next door, for its personnel, the food, and the beer. Also (as I discovered), it's the best place to get 'Hurricane gossip'. Hurricane's front-desk staff (there isn't one) are charming and lovely, but fierce as wolves.

By the way.

Thank you, ERCE for providing 17 pages at the end of your 'CPR', with a glossary of technical and commercial terms and definititons. I'd have thought any investor in O&G shares already knows such stuff. I do. So you've just wasted me that much printer-paper and ink.

Feel real proud of yourselves.

This so-called CPR , which I have printed and spent most of the day reading, is a crock.

I would draw every one's attention to this, on page 6, as a 'qualifier'.

"This reportis produced solely for the benefit of and on the instructions of Hurricane, and not for the benefit of any third party. Any third party to whom Hurricanediscloses or makes available this report shall not be entitled to rely on it or any part of it. Hurricaneagrees to ensure that any publication or use of this report which makes reference to ERCE shall be published or quoted in its entirety and Hurricane shall not publish or use extracts of this report,or any edited or amended version of this report, without the prior written consent of ERCE. In the case that any part of this report is delivered in digital format, ERCE does not accept any responsibility for edits carried out by Hurricaneor any third party after such material has been sent by ERCE to Hurricane."

There are many other such further a** -covering mentions further on in the 87-page document, mentioning 'probabilities' or 'uncertainties'. Which means essentially it's all just so much crystal-ball-gazing mumbo-jumbo.

I know of a few people who are considering launchin some 'class action' legal procedings against either the company, or the FCA, due to the debacle this has become. I won't be one of their number, but wish them the best of luck should such proceedings materialise. There is one question I think they should bear in mind, and legitimately ask. Who, if anyone, within Equipoise (ERCE) can be considered or has any qualifications to be considered 'competent', regarding Fractured Basement Reservoirs ? None that I can find.

Some other stuff's interesting. Such as the talk about 'well 8' (though giving no planning at all, and also water injection. Same old, same old. Just toeing the new BoD's line.

Unfortunately though, I do have to agree that the OWC is a lot higher than we were led to believe a few years ago, a subject about which I got into a lot of arguments with a lot of people. But I just believed the information we were given. Finally (finally !) seeing some MDT log readings last year horrified me, leading me to conclude Dr T had been over-optimistic. But he too once worked for Shell, a company who like inventing nice (meaningless) buzz-phrases such as 'oil down to', which are no guarantees that such deep oil can be commercially produced.

The 'effective date' of this so-called CPR is 31st December 2020. So why only publish it now ? There is something very smelly about the whole thing.

Jackbob11

"Semi reliable source suggest Hurricane in advanced stages of contracting a rig for P&A activity. Stena Don was mentioned."

If that is the case it merits an RNS, especially if a contract is signed.

Planted,

"And anyone talking about “well architecture” ain’t oilfield ..."

Just one of hundreds (if not thousands) of references to the term to be found on google.

https://onepetro.org/WPCONGRESS/proceedings-abstract/WPC15/All-WPC15/WPC-29198/202956

I suggest you keep to driving your truck.

Planted,

" Liner is flexible and will be able to slip round any doglegs that are put in the wellbore...whilst drilling..
Hence my disgust at management saying it’s too difficult ..."

You didn't read my post in reply to Slift properly. The main point of which being that with the current well architecture, 7z has essentially zilch access to the Victory sands. Any sidetrack will have to be initiated well above the Victory.

Also I haven't read anythying about management saying it's too difficult. Indeed it's they who a proposing a sidetrack as a possible plan. Either way, though, any high-angle cased-hole sidetrack is inherantly risky and expensive, and personally I remain sceptical as to whether it will provide a 'cure'. But that's all imho, of course.

Slift,

"I'm not sure if either well 6 and well 7z had access to this. But I could be wrong. I mean, if well 7 had access to victory, likely well 7z and 6 also had access?"

No, not really. 9-5/8" casing was set at the very base of the Victory at the interface between the sandstones and the 'basement'. Except on Lincoln, where the casing was inexplicably landed lower, well into the basement. No explanation for that was given: it was possibly even a mistake.

Any sidetrack into the Victory will involve cutting a 'window' in the 9-5/8" higher than the existent casing shoe, as build-angle cannot be too severe, given that any sidetrack into the sandstones will have to be cased, unlike the open-hole 'barefoot completions' in the basement.

DC,

"I dismissed it as I thought the distance might be too great."

It's just occured to me. (Again, just thinking crazy ideas aloud. Please don't imagine this has anything to do with what may happen.)

Yes, there's a certain distance. But the Foinaven wellheads are in deepwater, so under a certain pressure. So a pipeline would be going 'uphill'. And oil likes going 'uphill'.

Plus for some unknown reason, Shell / BP (partners in the WoS fields) bought a bunch of licences 'coralling' Hurricane a couple of years ago. Which gives them 'right of way'.

It may be an imaginary 'pie in the sky' possibility, but interesting even so. Kick at stones and see what comes out from underneath.

conklo,

"AM is about 15 miles away from Foinaven so there will not be tie backs going to AM, plus she doesnt have the capacity to handle daily total fluids what the Foinaven is capable of producing daily."

That contradicts what I've just written ! But you may well be correct. Foinaven may be producing at 85% water-cut, so total fluid flow would overwhelm the AM. I don't know production details about that field

Plus as you say, a 15-mile pipeline is a long way.

What I dreamt up was just a thought which occured to me when reading the Times article. It could be complete codswallop.

Alf8885,

"That being said I saw this in the Times this morning https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/end-is-in-sight-for-bps-foinaven-the-uks-first-atlantic-oil-field-09c2gndnv
What are peoples opinions on the chances of HUR getting involved in this with BP pulling out? "

I saw that too, and immediately thought that HUR could get involved.

OK, what follows is pure pie-in-the-sky of 'bluesky' thinking. Some of you may laugh. But remember, in the oilfield, nothing is impossible.

BP is not necessarily going to abandon the Foinaven field. Because then they'd have to pay considerable decommissioning costs. Very considerable. However they have to shut in because the Patrojarl Foinaven (the FPSO) is falling apart. OK, BP and partners have been down this road before with Schiehallion, which they shut in for two years while Glen Lyon was being built and installed. But that's a big, major field, so it was worth the time and expense.

But is it worth it for Foinaven, currently producing at around 12,500 bbl / day ? I suspect not. However a tieback to another FPSO might not be a bad idea. Technically not too difficult. Build and install a subsea manifold connecting the flowlines from the assorted wells, then run a pipeline to the chosen FPSO.

OK, maybe Glen Lyon seems the obvious choice. But Aoka Mizu is a bit closer, and has the spare capacity. Plus sharing the AM with BP would maybe get HUR 'off the hook', as a win-win.

OK, this is fantastical dreaming, I readily admit it. Shouldn't be taken seriously. But nothing's impossible.

Branson,

"ADUK, firstly good to see you back posting."

Thank you. I'm a sucker for punishment, so check in now and then to see how the story's panning out.

" Hope life is well in Niort?" Other than a 19:00 - 06:00 curfew, having to wear a mask in the street, all the cafes and restaurants closed, plus not being allowed to travel further than 10 km from home (making it really hard to scare up a poker game), life is hunkey-dory.

"That last CPR needs looking at further as obviously someone thinks it stinks"

Diver,

I think everyone has had quite enough time to look at the last CPR and pick holes in it. What is now awaited is the new one, with a new 'model' explaining why the last interpretation was so wrong'

And either way, the CPR will not be compiled be anyone 'competant' in fractured basement reservoirs, because they are few and far between. One of them being Dr Trice, whose well 6 is still flowing at a commercial rate... Proving his point, which was all he was out to do, anyway.