Member Info for adoubleuk

SiPP,

"adoubleuk (because why use a sentence when a paragraph will do)"

I object to this.

I am perfectly capable of writing one-liners.

The thing is, though, once I start writing I sometimes get carried away. And also some topics require detail explanations, not simply for the sake of clarity, but also so that the reader can cross-check to ensure that I'm being factually correct. Although sometimes I post with things which are simple opinions or purely speculative, in which case I try to ensure that this is made evident, and... (cont. page 94)

Back to Ricfle. Aka the 'raingod' ; aAka the life and soul of the party.

In a message addressed to Wessexmario he wrote:

"This is the point, you will not obtain any good information... You also cannot, or will not, explain how you will produce this information"

Ricfle, have you EVER contacted the company's IR department?

Naturally the person who runs it is not always at liberty to divulge technical information which may be considered by the company to be 'confidential'. But nevertheless one sometimes learns things which aren't common knowledge unless one asks.

C'mon now, have you EVER had direct contact with the company?

More.

Just dug out my'boiler's manual having read Icarus69's post. Saunier-Duval is another name for Vaillant, which he recommends. So do I.

Boyzee,

"You oilie/ engineers out there help. What brand of combi boiler would you recommend? "

The way you phrased this amused me no end! Because despite my four decades of sharp-end involvement in the oilwell / gaswell drilling industry I'm in no way qualified to advise about domestic combi boilers! I have one, completely understand how it works (having read the manual), and if it went wrong could almost certainly mend it myself. But I don't. I'd call a qualified service engineer from the company which does the annual inspection, because if I'd been messing with it and it blew up later, the insurance wouldn't pay...

I have a gas-fired thing made by an outfit called Saunier-Duval, and it does a very good job of centrally heating my 110 sq metre flat and providing hot water. No probs, and (most importantly) exceedingly simple to change the settings according to the season. But maybe not available in the UK.

johnpwh,

" Can anyone tell me why diesel is now the same price, or in fact I think a penny or so a litre more, than it was then?"

Yes, I can. Those lovely politicians (aka thieves and shysters) who people 'vote for' to 'goven' them. Tax.

I'm a 'maniac' by the way (see preceding post), and as such haven't 'voted' for any politician in the last four decades or so. As a humble chicken, I consider 'voting' to be rather the same as choosing which fox should be left to guard the henhouse.

Ricfle,

"Should we introduce the risk of some ego maniac, who believes they can calculate flow rates and interpret the well results after first oil ?"

I don't know who you're referring to as a maniac, but it's probably myself. However I haven't said that it'll be possible for anyone here without connections to the company to calculate flow rates and interpret well results soon after first oil. (With your seemingly encyclopedic memory of every post I've ever written, you may find one where I did say that, but if so I was expressing myself badly.)

What one should be able to do is calculate very approximate PRODUCED VOLUMES over a period of the first three months or so, and by comparison whith the figures JayKay mentioned in his 22:15 post on Tuesday get a rough idea of how well things are going. Working backwards and trying to deduce how fast the well(s) are flowing at any particular time would, as you note, be impossible. All one could get in that respect is a rough mean flowrate over a matter of weeks or months, which would be a fairly meaningless figure anyway.

Trying to figure out (I repeat, approximate) production volume wouldn't be much more than an interesting 'academic exercise' anyway. But of no less value than trying to predict what the SP might be at FoiL, when the FPSO might latch with the buoy, whether Crystal Amber is a shareholder to be trusted, 'shipwatching', and all the myriad other topics which make this such an interesting board. And given that only an infinitesimal amount of the chat here has any effect on the way the company works, if you think of it in those terms, we might as well all stop contributing here and find something else to do during the day like staring at our own navels.

When it boils down to it, we ought to learn far more detail about production figures and so on next June at the AGM, because doubtless the initial EPS performance will be a subject of great scrutiny, assuming it's actually gone online by then (June still being within H1). And as I've posted before, I feel fairly sure that the FoiL RNS will tell us the startup flowrate and which well has been brought onstream first, though I'm not certain I'd like to put money on that.

To round off this early-morning message, if it is indeed me you're calling a maniac, please be informed that I'm not at all bothered by that. I prefer to be considered a maniac than some boring old bit of flatulence that perpetually asks humourless rhetorical questions, argues with almost everybody, and doesn't contribute anything positive or of any value to discussion about anything on this chatboard.

Addendum:

..."xept this time it's me first off the mark! (Because I keep some very odd hours indeed.)

Looks like she's going to be pulling into Malta MA MTD. (Doesn't mean real close to the island, though. Could be a few miles out). ETA 03:00 on the 6th.

johnpwh,

" I can pedal my push bike faster than the AM chugs!"

But unless you're seriously obese, I suspect you and your bike have a far more efficient power-to weight ratio than the FPSO!

I hope not too many members of the AM's crew or other Bluewater people read this board, because they might get a bit upset about all this talk about the ship 'chugging along'. Get close to her and you'll probably instead hear a nice constant humming noise. A bit like a bumble-bee. Not the fastest of flying insects, but it was only recently that it was discovered how they manage to stay aloft at all.

And I bet you and your bike would have a hard time getting from Dubai to Rotterdam without frequent fuel-stops.

camdenlad,

I think that's the first time I've seen a topic header here saying 'thank you' in Welsh.

PS I'm not Welsh.

Ricfle,

"As you are now going to attempt a calculation, could you post up how you intend to do it"

Sorry, but no, I'd prefer not to do that. As you know there's another site which you like to deride and heap scorn upon, and most of the people signed up there, even if they weren't shipwatchers' beforehand, are now! And the topic of shipwatching in the context of EPS has already received some amount of (good natured) discussion and attention. Such as valid methodology, and so on. When any potential 'conclusions' are reached, come the time, (some months hence, remember), they'll probably be peer-reviewed there before being posted on a public forum such as this one.

Ricfle,

"or are you just going to make gross assumptions to produce a figure regardless?"

As regards my own 'calculations' when the time comes, the answer is yes. If the result gives me some sort of 'ballpark figure', that'll be good enough for starters.

BlueClyde,

"The majors had the opportunity to farm in and shoulder this risk but they didnt."

That's a disingenious suggestion. Another (my own, though shared by some others I know) is that offers (if they existed) made by so-called 'majors' were too lowball, so the HUR BoD told 'em to push off and come back later...

Wellwell,

"I'd advise caution when it comes to the antics of the shipwatchers. As well intentioned their activities and observations are; they could be misleading."

Once again, I agree (remarkably) with the main body of your post. However I take slight umbrage at your final phrases:

"I'd advise caution when it comes to the antics of the shipwatchers. As well intentioned their activities and observations are; they could be misleading."

Because I'm a 'shipwatcher' myself! But just one out of many, the numbers have swelled considerably.

I suspect that the 'true' shipwatchers will be far more interested in the TO Leader's activities during the weeks following FoiL than in the AM on-station starting the EPS. Because the only real thing we'll be able to see of any interest will be the arrival of the first offload tanker, and even then, that won't ellus much more than the average production rate since FoiL. Which as you rightly say is rather meaningless within the bigger picture, and will not be data from which one can extrapolate anything.

But as it happens, it's my belief that when the company announces FoiL via RNS, they'll probably say from which well the oil is coming, and at what rate. Which probably won't be more than 10 kBopd, initially. No longer-term 'predictions' should be based upon such a statement, should it occur.

Maybe you'd have better phrased things by exhorting 'shipwatchers' themselves to be cautious, and not to publish any potentially misleading 'conclusions' here. I'd second that idea.

johnpwh,

"Seems to be about 13 hours ago! Hopefully she's chugged Northwards a bit since!"

Good point! (Now 17 hours ago.) Last showing, she was pretty much alone, maybe out of a shore-based station, and maybe not yet close enought to other vessels for them to 'repeat' her position. (See Wessexmario's explanatory posts a few days ago about how AIS works.) I don't see any way she'll be 'joining the queue' and going up the canal without AIS turned on.

Patience. Still on schedule.

Wellwell,

""to make Scotland a global hub for decommissioning"
Say it and it will happen. Of course it won't."

Again (remarkably) I tend to agree with you. In terms of the vessels involved, Heerema (nb spelling!) and Allseas have got the march on everyone else. And of course the 'state of the art' so far was the removal of Brent Delat's topsides, which were shipped to Teeside. Which (unless they've moved the border) isn't in Scotland.

Millais (and others),

" AM heading back out to sea, maybe to join a convey for passage through the Canal..."

Yup, there are 'convoys'.

Here's a bit of pure guesswork. Quick detour close inshore to drop off the Dutch Marines and their arms?

johnph,

Oh yes, another thing. While underway the AM is classified as a 'tanker', and Suez Canal regulations impose a lower 'speed limit' for tankers than for some other vessels. So it makes sense to let the faster ones go first.

johnph,

" Looking at the ships it was until recently travelling with, they are due at Suez on 28th or 29th. Is AM having to kill a bit of time?"

From information received from elsewhere, the answer to your question is (possibly) yes. Though not much. All's on schedule, but the AM may well be taking the rear of the northbound convoy, because she's very high in the water, which could reduce forward visibility for any following vessels.

Supposition on my part (other than the 'on schedule' bit), but it seems logical.

Does anyone know whether LSE has turned the bad-language censor back on?

You see I've been looking at the RBD board and was tempted to write 'Wicfle is a ranker' there, but it might end up just being a collection of asterisks.

I-H,

"PJ ... well ... it does suck that he's barred .. some right tw ats on these bb's - which he is not ... admin need a 'be real and not stupid pill'

Not sure you know the exact story behind the pj ban. Probably do, but it's a lot deeper than one or two people just 'reporting' him.

He's now posting over on lemonplaice sometimes...