Member Info for adoubleuk

BNB,

"whoever did wants shooting" .

That made me chuckle!

But I have a strong intuitive suspicion that it was JH who gave RB the heads-up about Hurricane, causing CA to take such a strong stand at IPO, and no matter how much CA's latterday trading works to the disadvantage of PI's who want to take advantage of the highs, without them we'd still be trying to drill a second well, probably.

That's why personally my only real beef with the involvement of CA these days as a significant shareholder is that the company's an albatross round our necks which acts in an utterly cynical manner. RB doesn't care a dam about whether Hurricane brings a 'strategic asset' of a few billion bbl of oil to full production. 'Cos his Bentley will still be running even when petrol costs five pounds a litre. People like that remind me of the 'Mr Zorg' character in the movie 'The Fifth Element'.

But pay the Danegeld and it's hard to get rid of the Dane...

daltry,

That's not the way Dr T tells the story...

This is (almost) totally O/T. Hope LSE won't mind.

My buddy Ricfle will have probably noticed that I'm writing at an unusually early hour for a Thursday night / Friday morning.

For his info, it's because I've taken a night off my habitual poker game, the weather is frightful, and I just didn't feel like driving.

But one or two things (like SXX posting a link to an article already eleven months old) have caused me to ponder how much water has already gone under the bridge.

Plus the fact that the 'festive season' will soon be upon us.

Now two years ago, around this time, there was a rig drilling a well on Lincoln. And some of the more lighthearted contributors here posted some funny doggerel poetry related to that, as Christmas approached.

It occurs to me that although there was nowt happening operationally last winter (except in Dubai), this time our ship is at sea, heading towards Bonnie Scotland, and so on. So maybe the pensmiths should start sharpening their nibs and quills once more, to be ready. (Our Scottish friends are pretty good at doggerel poetry, after all, even if they know jack about cooking.)

One rule though (says he, laying down the law like Reverandy with his sweepstakes). No contributions before the boat leaves Rotterdam!

(Oh, and for the sake of good rhyme and so on, the Aoka Mizu is pronounced 'Acka Missoo'.)

SXX,

I very much doubt Sookma has read it.

In fact, neither had I. But just one more interview / article slipped though my net. Know it all already.

But a brilliant read.

Sure,there's some tech stuff which can be a bit esoteric. I doubt that the people who check their company's computer algorithms against the 200ma (whatever that is) will understand much about

"The proximity of the reservoir to the Atlantic Margin is of particular significance – the process of Mesozoic extension and hydrocarbon charge being coeval with significant vertical uplift."

The only 'uplift' which bothers them probably being getting out of bed on time to catch the 06:45 from Acton.

And

" key information on permeability anisotropy and the presence or absence of barriers." will have 'em reaching for the to find what 'anistropy' is (assuming they've got a good dictionary), while the presence or absence of barriers will probably make 'em think af the latest terror attacks rather than something deep in the rocks WoS.

It should nevertheless be noted that the article appeared last January. But nothing has changed. Other than a farmin has now occured.

'Algo trading' is all very well and good. But there are limits. Someday a few investment company bosses will get their programmer minions ('cos that's all they are) to change the parameters...

SXX

²""Don't start the pump(s) yet wait until January, when I can come and help"
or:
"F*** xmas dinner I've got 38api to check, get me a helicopter"
?

An interesting question. Because the thing is, the good Dr T is in some ways a very private man. Personally, I don't know if he's married, or has children, what sort of car he drives, nor anything like that.

But the fact that he started his company from work done in a garden shed makes me suspect that he may be a family man, otherwise why wasn't he doing his groundbreaking work in his living-room, or a bedroom turned into an office?

But he's also a longtime dedicated oilman, and for those people to succeed (as he's doing so far) it requires an understanding partner.

So I guess from your two suggestions, the second is the most likely.

Madame Trice (to offspring, on Christmas Eve): "Yes, Daddy's away from home again for Christmas, but don't worry, he'll come home with good news and a sample of first oil that's gone through the production train of the FPSO!"

Children (fiddling with Playstations modified and linked to Schlumberger's 'spot the seismic sweetspot' game: "Don't worry, Mum, we're used to it!"

Or something like that...

Divecentre,

"AM is making good speed at 9.1 knots but has changed destination from Gibralter to Algeciras (the Spanish port across the bay). Will they be stopping in port or have they set this destination as a waypoint?"

Hmm, this could be interesting! The other day I postulated that the stop off Malta was just for a personnel transfer, and not bunkering. If the boat swings by and stops outside Algeceras for a brief while and is met by a launch, I think that might confirm my hypothesis.

Maybe one or two people just wanted a little sea-cruise. Anyone seen Dr T of late?

PS No, I haven't 'heard' anything! This is just pure speculation of the wildest sort after a rather good supper...

Wulbert,

"Is there any chance of seeing the Aoka Mizu from the east coast of Scotland as she travels northwards from Rotterdam?"

Who is this question aimed at? Hurricane management, indirectly?

What a good idea, though. Have her pay a visit to just off Aberdeen and publish the timing beforehand!

PS You've brought up a topic on which I find myself (unusually) in agreement with Wellwell. I had the misfortune of being offered a Butterie to eat, once, and thought it was foul. One bite was enough. A seagull finished what remained...

dspp,

"YuYus - they definitely have metering to support one field. But you need different metering to support two fields. Why. For reservoir engineering purposes, for shareholder purposes, and for tax purposes. It is possible that this metering is in place just on the offchance, but unlikely. Oh and the pipework and valves etc to support it. "

True,

But equally I remember a new metering package being put onto the Montrose A (1982, I think) when Arbroath was tied in. And (other than associated pipework, the new riser, etc., etc.,), it was about the size of a standard shipping container, and couldn't have weighed more than seven tons or so. Easily installed. (Though it took up some walkway space to and from the coffee-shop, presenting some new 'trip hazards', so we drillers considered it a nuisance.)

Personally I don't believe the delayed sailaway from Dubai (which wasn't a delay of any significance whatsoever, really), nor any of the time the boat will spend in Rotterdam, has anything whatsoever to do with the Spirit deal and future tie-in of a Lincoln appraisal well.

But that's just personal humble opinion, speculative, with no backup evidence, so could of course be wrong.

And I don't see that it makes any difference to anything, anyway.

DiveCentre,

"Did the Company say that in their reply to your email because I don't think it has been publicly stated."

Not as such, no.

But they're not going to have the boat sitting out in the field burning up fuel on DP during a Force 7 and hoping for things to calm down to perform the latch-up, are they?

I mean, during none of the presentions and Malcy interviews I've never seen a big hook appearing from the wings and dragging Dr T off, stage left. These people aren't daft. The boat can go from Lerwick to Lancaster (the field, not the town, despite her occasional visits to downtown Dubai if one believed the AIS) in less than 12 hours. And from the Moray Firth in a day and a half.

Snail,

" what have you done with Cebo ?"

Good question.

Maybe Cebo's suffering the SADS (Seasonal Adjustment Depression Syndrome).

Someone buy him a drink, quickly.

johnpwh,

" My understanding (which may well be wrong) is that the turret plate protects while the ship is in transit. If so why would it be removed in Rotterdam rather than on station in WOS given that the roughest part of the journey is likely to be encountered during the final leg?"

I myself mooted a speculation that the plate might be removed closer to destination, though not actually in the field itself. However I've had it confirmed that it'll take place in Rotterdam, and trust me, my 'source' is 100% trustworthy.

The advantage of Rotterdam is that the removal can be done essentially dockside, and then when the boat moves away, picked out of the water by a crane. Easy-peasy. Also the thing was constructed there, so arriving back there involves no customs formalities, even if it's just a dumb bit of iron.

Also like that, the boat's fully ready for latch-up of the buoy when the weather's right.

On which subject, the worst sea conditions she'll see before actually being on station might be on the way up past the Iberian peninsula and west of the Bay of Biscay! She ran into a heavy stom there when first coming to the N.Sea from Singapore. And we know she won't actually go out to the field for latching-up until the seas are relatively calm.

JayKay,

"Might be time to move to an fully online platform for your trading, away from your French bank?"

That might make sense if I thought about 'trading' regularly. (In fact I have thought about trying that as a real source of income, but finally rejected the idea as a pipedream.)

I haven't actually made any share transactions for a number of months now. So why not keep things simple, with a thing which seems to work? Slowly, to be sure. No way I could 'daytrade' via the bank, unless I had a big cash 'stack' sitting beside me. Doing the deal can be just a matter of minutes, but the cross-channel actual money-transfer a couple of days...

But I've found some of today's chat (oops! yesterday's) interesting. The stuff about 'shorting', which is always brought up when the SP drops.

Because to my mind, there are 'shorts', and there are other shorts.

And something I'm not quite sure about (despite Ricfle calling me a 'market expert') are these so-called 'declared short positions'. I'll have to do a bit more reading about this, because declaring a short position sounds a bit like playing a poker hand with all your cards exposed, and saying what you're going to bet. Which makes no sense at all.

But another thing which occurred to me today (sorry yesterday!), on reading some posts from other people who actually are 'market experts'.

Last May, I sold the majority of my HUR shares (as regular contributors to this chatboard know) because something told me there was a peak based on unfounded rumours. Which turned out to be true. And then I started buying back in, initially at the placing price, and even lower. My holding is now the same (no, just a little bit more) than it was before that move.

There's a downside.

My 'average' is now 27p (because it wasn't a complete sell. Before it was 17. So very longterm, whatever overall profit I may come out with will be probably less than had I just sat on my hands and rode out the storm. But in the meantime I got a nice cash 'windfall' which helped me through the summer, thanks very much.

So essentially I 'shorted' my shares. I took the gamble of betting on my instincts that the SP would fall, at which point I could buy again low. BUT WITH EVERY INTENTION OF BUYING BACK IN.

And the gamble played off.

So I'm a 'shorter'.

Or am I? I didn't post on this BB that I'd sell, did I? And anyway the quantity involved wouldn't effect a point of a percent.

Now we know that there's some yank II selling. (Can't be bothered to go back to find the name.) Who's to say they aren't simply doing the same thing? And won't buy back in bigtime when the price is right?

And all this 'shortly' following the Stateside 'roadshow' oddly enough...

Any PI who sells this now is downright stupid.

Imho.

JayKay,

" move to a broker that explicitly states that they don't lend out shares in nominee accounts..."

Yes, that sounds logical. Except (just to make Ricfle really happy), this 'market expert' doesn't even know who the broker is! Because I deal through my (French) bank. And without a doubt, they then go through a broker who actually deals in the shares. If it's a share already known to them (the bank), I can do this just through the internet. It's on their 'list'. But if it isn't, I have to use the phone, to get them to find a broker, and then add that share to their 'list'. I know for a fact that I was the first person to have bought both HUR and RBD shares via the Crédit Agricole... Oh, and TAL (now extinct) on the ASX. And something else listed in Toronto.

Haven't a clue who the actual brokers are.

YorkshireLife,

"I thought 43 was the bottom... Hopefully a retrace soon!"

I'll drink to that. I guess we'll only know where the 'bottom' is when the SP starts rising again in a steady manner. Which it surely will, some day.

Only frustration being that the climbs back up seem to take a lot longer than the falls...

slipanchor,

"she could have had a Bunkering Tanker out there with no AIS or the transponder turned off and the launch was taking the pilot back to shore. All guesswork of course."

I took a couple of looks (or three) at the AIS today and although I missed the visit by the launch, was surprised not to see another boat next to her. And come to think of it, SURELY a bunkering tanker would have its AIS turned on.

Maybe the AM didn't need bunkering (that'd give me a warm feeling!), but she stopped off Malta for a personnel transfer of some sort?

Herewith a slight anecdote, so Wellwell and Ricfle (who don't like my anecdotes) can switch off right now.

In 2006 I 'rode the tow' of a jackup rig (Sedco / TO Trident IV, now scrapped) from Ravenna in italy to offshore Djerba, Tunisia. I like riding jackup tows, even if more jackups have sunk on rigmove than have been burnt down by blowouts or whatever. We were doing some modifications to the rig, and pulled in off Malta to pick up a couple more mechanics and also the rig positioning surveyors. A launch came out and we'd slowed to a crawl, like half a knot, just to maintain heading. But the launch-jockey hadn't seemed to have realised that our hull was triangular, and tried to come in parallel to us! And even at half a knot, it was a big bump! Already the risk / safety analysis and approval for a personnel transfer while underway had caused the OIM, Towmaster and myself a lot of paperwork. The collision caused a lot more, afterwards! Happy days...

It was reading of today's AM activity which caused me to remember that story.

(PS The poor old Trident IV had a history of marine mishaps. I saw her again some 4 years later in the harbour at Limbé, Cameroon. She'd been coming in there anyway for some yard-work. But on entering, the tow had gone a bit wrong and she'd scraped the rocks which are known to anyone who knows that harbour. Putting a hole in one of her fuel tanks. The same one which had got dented by the launch off Malta! Seemingly it caused a bit of a mess in the harbour...

Moonlanding,

"It’s quite amazing how many “investors “have crawled out of the woodwork stating that they have taken profits or sold shares.Perhaps I am wrong but I continue to accumulate as the story has not changed and with the Spirit deal only improved."

All very well to say, but each to their own circumstances. I (for instance) would love to be able to just sit on what I hold and accumulate more, but that would require a regular source of income. Which unfortunately I don't. So instead, I (occasionally) trade, if the moment looks right. But it's all about timing, and despite Ricfle's recent barbed post I'm not a 'market expert' at all, and have got the timing wrong and lost money at times in the past. And I didn't see the recent 'peak' as being one at all, so that just gets filed in the 'missed opportunity' drawer.

One way or another, there's only one way anyone will make any actual cash out of their shares in Hurricane and that's by selling. And there's nothing wrong with that. Some may have a 'target price', others may want to sit tight until the 'takeover' happens. (If it does!) Others (hopefully young!) may even be waiting for the company to pay dividends, though myself I think they've got a long wait in store.

There's nothing wrong with trading one's shares. Assuming they actually belong to you. No trading, no 'market'.

Ricfle,

"The skill is to not play anyone more skilful them yourself. How do you know this before sitting down at the table?"

You obviously know jack about the game. Which is just about the only 'sport' in the world where you can sit down at the same table as a champion and stand a reasonable chance (if you're any good) to win a pot or two. But it won't work longterm.

You can spot a good player very quickly: mannerisms, comportment, etc.. And personally I really like it if some stranger comes in and is a good player. I just try to make sure I don't get mixed up in too many hands with 'em! Absolutely the best mix is four good players at the table and half a dozen 'fish'.

I play in live 'cash games'. Which aren't tournaments. And it's not the internet, neither. Three completely different beasts. Not what you see on the telly.

Snail,

" The borrowing / renting of other people's shares to cynically drive down a company's sp to then buy them back later is a thousand times different in my eyes."

Agree entirely.

Ricfle mentioned people who sold around the peak before the placing and bought back in lower. I was one of them. And yes, it was a gamble, and a big personal financial risk. Because it was my own shared I was trading. This is not the same as 'professional' shorters with broker's accounts who are able to lease shares which don't actually change ownership. In fact, the owners aren't even consulted.

This latter bit is the part I find objectionable. I 'own' an number of shares, not just in HUR, but elsewhere. And I don't like things I own being used without my knowledge for someone else's benefit without getting a cut of the action myself. This is where I believe that shorting is borderline immoral. Though of course morality and money are never very good bedfellows.

Also (stirring up a bit more controversy, maybe), I don't see the connection with spreadbetting. Spreadbetting is 'shorting for PI's'. The gambler doesn't own the horse. And neither do the holders of the CB's short via spreadbetting. However the spreadbetting companies (equivalent of the bookie) can manipulate the SP to make as many punters lose their stake as possible. It's how they make a profit.

If one accepts that spreadbetting companies are the equivalent of racetrack bookies, one might consider the fact that racetrack bookies operate in much the same way as insurance companies. It must never be forgotten that insurance companies are not in business to pay out claims, they're in the business of collecting premiums.

PublicHeel,

"The oil is there or it isn't. It will flow or it won't. "

It is and it does. This is the Hurricane Energy BB. I think you're porting in the wrong place.

Longwait,

"I think what the OP was trying the do was compare HUR to companies which have sky-high valuations on hopes that they will discover oil or that oil they have discovered can be extracted profitably.

HUR has already got the oil to flow."

Another 'fundamentals' post today which I rather like!

Of course these are rather bleak times so far as the SP goes, so it's reassuring to see views which agree with one's own... (!)

I use my 'internet banking' service quite a lot, but also to keep track of how much my stocks portfolio is worth in terms of actual useable money. And what with the last few weeks plus the weakness of Stirling due to this Brexit nonsense, my HUR holding is worth a lot less than a couple of months ago. But I'm not going to jump into the river and drown myself because of that. For a simple reason. I'm not going to sell now and convert to cash!

II investment at the placing has already been mentioned as a 'fundamental', but it can be put even more prosaically than that.

A lot of the money raised has already been spent. On a quantity of very expensive subsea infrastructure now in place and ready to go, and a FPSO currently in the Med and making its way towards the field. Not to mention two wells recompleted and 'ready to go' as soon as everything is plugged in.

Of course there are still 'risks' subsisting. But what's already been invested in isn't the same as some maniac walking into the casino and plonking all his money on Red at the roulette table.

I'm interested to see some of the TA stuff saying how the share is now looking 'oversold'. A while back (at a higher SP) it was 'overbought'. Seems to me that a lot of people have no patience.