Member Info for adoubleuk

Kiwi,

"People are missing the value of Colter to Reabold vs the value of West Newton, the value of Monroe Swell, Parta, Big Grizzly and others. The bigger upside here is from the other drills not Colter and many of those have a much higher COS"

I hear you, But it's one of the funny things about this share.

Allow me to rabbit on a bit, in an anecdotal way...

As I've mentioned in other posts, this is one of the most boring shares I've held! Just doesn't seem to be going anywhere. And I've been here for over a year. But the 'potentia'l still seems to be great, so just sitting here, holding.

But why did I buy in for starters? Colter. A question from a friend (occasional correspondent here) asking if I knew anything about it. Which I didn't, but did some research pdq. And liked what I saw.

Now here's the thing. I'm a poker-player in quite a serious way, though wouldn't flatter myself (nor insult you people reading this) by even describing myself as a 'semi-pro', let alone 'pro'. Not that good. But the thing is, I do know how to calculate 'pot odds' in a flash. But more importantly, I can also calculate 'implied pot odds', even if it takes a bit more time.

And that's why Colter seems important to me.

Fingers crossed. But if logs, sidewall cores, sample-tests and so on indicate that Colter is 'go', it's worth a heck of a lot more than a few hundred barrels a day from some California wells, which are just paying the rent. As a bargaining-chip.

OK, let's not forget the Danube / Parta Romanian side of things, which is also exciting but hasn't really caused much news of late. Which isn't really surprising, 'cos it's January, and Romania in the winter can be chilly!

Plus also, we've got the 'newcomer', W.Newton, which geologically I like the look of a lot. But it's a 'newcomer', not even on the horizon when I bought in.

But honestly, if someone had suggested RBD to me as an investment back then, on the basis of California but without Colter, I wouldn't have touched the share with a bargepole. Just about any old mom an' pop outfit over on the gold-coast can shove a stick in the ground and end up growing a rosebush. Which is what RBD seems to have done, and the roses smell lovely.

But nevertheless, it's the thing off Bournmouth (and now the other new thing on the desolate plains of E.England) which light up the dollar signs for me.

Won't be long.

miker444,

" Coralian must be used to this scenario, hopefully once spudded there is no going back and drilling will commence, 40 days may be an allowance maximum, I notice Wick took about 17 days from spud, albeit a duster."

Don't worry. I'm not sure about your 'Coralian must be used to this scenario', because they're a young company. But whether they're used to it or not, allowances will be made. I won't make any predictions regarding rig tow-time, nor date of spud. But once spudded, the drilling program will progress to its completion, even if for whatever reason it runs beyond the end of February. Extensions will almost certainly be granted, to my mind. OGA carries more clout than a hundred Nimby's carrying placards. And what can they do, anyway? Go and spray-paint slogans on the rig's legs? Hope they wear a sou'wester!

Colter is deeper than Wick, so the work will take longer. However the program is very similar. Drill, log, maybe take cores (though most likely wireline sidewall-cores), maybe MDT, plug and abandon. No flow-testing, nor anything like that. 'Easy' (everything is relative) stuff.

So essentially, all we're waiting for is the rig to get in place. Then Thunderbirds ought to be Go.

BNB,

" imo the AK is taking on fuel and supplies"

As I do on almost a daily basis.

Or were you referring to the AM?

HTL,

"I hope you are well and all is good?"

Not really. Still trying to get rid of the backend of the 'flu, and this gloomy winter weather is demoralising me. Plus I got eliminated from two online poker games last night without making the pay.

But also, I know that you've got your own problems which make mine seem fairly miniscule in comparison, so I'll quit moaning.

Plus also, it's good to see (from your recent posts) that you're still in good spirits! Hope it stays that way.

Frankly, I don't personally believe the few hours' 'stop' had anything to do with anything mechanical like the winch. But I have no 'inside info'. But any 'remedial work' required (mentioned in the RNS) could have been done and also tested while in the Firth. There's quite enough water-depth.

No, once again, I think it's related to the DP.

Oh! And that reminds me! Time to go see if the 'Olympic Zeus' is moving again.

TheCashFerret,

"Any thoughts?"

Yes. Unfortunately again a bit critical, like my earlier post to someone else.

You need to get up to speed. The FPSO has been 'shadowed' by the Grampian Dynamic (a safety / standby / rescue vessel) ever since entering UK waters. Likewise, the Grampian Sovereign, which is the supply-boat chartered. OK, the 'Sovereign' (in it's supply rôle) has sometimes been going off on a milk-run and then coming back, but otherwise our 'little fleet' has been staying together...

dspp,

"Wind energy certainly will - and does - reduce electricity costs. Check out "merit order effect" if in doubt. It is all very well to be invested in oil & gas, but recycling prejudiced blinkered falsehoods is not sensible if you wish to be a rational and successful investor."

I hear what you say. But will nevertheless remain a Quixotic investor, instead. I hate those dam windmills with a passion. They're a blot on the landscape, and now the seascape, as well. And in terms of 'carbon footprint' it's about 20 years before payback comes, for each one of them.

There are a whole bunch getting installed in my neck of the woods. And boy, am I beginning to get sick of sitting in a traffic-jam while a lowboy articulated truck carrying some windmill blade takes 15 minutes to negotiate a roundabout. And that V8 Scania isn't battery-powered. And nor is my car, sitting there idling...

Plus just wait and see. Give it a few more years. Drive past any windfarm and at least two units aren't working. Broken-down, in other words. Maintenence costs are going to skyrocket soon. So don't count on your dividend.

That's the nice thing about oilfield production facilities: they pay their own way, in general. Wind-turbines don't. Instead they are dependent on subsidies (provided by the taxpayer), private investment in whatever form, and so on.

Sure, wind-power works, and can be efficient. At a certain size. But these re-scaled big things are a scam.

Keeps some people in 'jobs', though, I suppose. And that seems to be the watchword these days. But that, too, is a scam. Imho.

paolo111,

" but the idea that the hookup was a trial run, and that they would have said oh, that was fun, let's let it go and hook it up again, maybe we win a teddy, seems to add an unnecessary risk, and incongruous with the rns "

I know this may sound like criticism, and in some respects it is, but you really ought to 'get up to speed'. Thr reference I made to a 'trial run' in my earlier post had nothing to do with the Jan 18th 'attempt'. Instead, a preceding 'visit to the field' by the FPSO eight days earlier. Which was NOT followed by an RNS.

wessexmario,

"Maybe they're going through a drill to practice what they need to do for hookup?"

Goodness alone knows. Maybe. When I last looked at the AIS, that's where they were, almost stationary, doing whatever. Got me scratching my head, I'll admit. Puzzling.

Of course, all we can do is sit back and watch.

Wulbert,

"Re; "72 degrees?" I think this came up before. There's a massive offshore wind farm being built up there. Maybe trying to give it a wide berth?"

Yes.

Think of it like cones on a motorway. Lots of 'non work' going on, to no real purpose, but holding everyone up.

Makes the windmill-makers lots of money, though, and some boat-operators occupied.

Won't cut your electricity bill, though.

Wulbert,

"Fair enough, and as you say, just a guess on your part. However, what do you think that long, slow, random looking drift westward afterwards was all about? It had me puzzled at the time. Was the wind/tide moving in that direction?"

Sorry, but don't want to discuss that any more. It got me into trouble at the time (like some real acrimonious posts here and there, though that's just detail), and anyway, it's all past history...

I'm about 99% dam sure about the first 'visit' having been a 'trial run', though, and think I know why, as well. Without (and I must underline this) WITHOUT any 'inside information', nor phoning Lower Easham about it. But simply, two plus two sometimes makes four. And some other people with whom I did some phone-chats (Underline again for FCA's sake, with no direct relations with the company) were in agreement with my interpretation...

I don't want to pursue the subject further. But it might be a very good question for someone to ask at the AGM. Unfortunately due to other commitments, I won't be attending. But I know there are one or two people intent on dragging up some really old history, and I don't really understand why, 'cos it's now just another bucket of bad blood under the bridge.

Whereas on this topic, if someone asked if the 'first visit' to the buoy was just a 'trial run', I think they'd get a straightforward answer.And the reason why.

Albi1,

That's lovely.

Let's just wish everyone in our 'little fleet' a safe voyage north, and propitious weather conditions to be able to hook-up this time. But please don't take any risks, because if it doesn't look good, there will always be another opportunity.

JayKay1,

" I've had my lucky pants on since the first attempt weeks ago!"

OMG. How many times?

That was a 'trial run', Not a 'hook-up attempt', even though it may have looked like it.

I have no 100% evidence for this, but would bet my shirt on it. And I'm not going to phone Lower Easham for confirmation, because out of politeness, protocol, FCA rules and so on,l I couldn't post the answer here, anyway. Were I given an unequivocal one...

SIPP,

"Here are some Sumburgh puffins"

Crazy birds! Unfortunately being attracted to crazy birds is part of my life-story, and frequently my downfall.

Mind you, go check out the RBD BB. It would appear the crew on the rig are waiting on a tug...

paolo111,

" I didn't expect that to be interpreted as "scaremongering".

OK, 'benefit of doubt', etc.

So I apologise if I was harsh.

I guess your remarks were based upon a slight misunderstanding (not your fault) of the technology involved.

But there's nothing 'wrong' with the turret, nor the buoy. Or at least, not according to all incoming information. (Though I'd underline once more, I'm not privvy to any sort of 'inside information', just the same as everyone else here gets.)

Contributor 'SIPP' in his reply to you, and reference to TLW, was in regard to that company's FPSO offshore W.Africa, which is an ongoing financial disaster-in-progress. It's also very closely related to buoy hookup.

But nothing to do with 'us'. But naturally I was a bit suspicious, because this is a share which is being 'worked' by all sorts of means, and I'm wary about 'negative posters'.

Maybe I got you wrong, so if so, apologies again.

OMG.

More bloomin' shipwatching again!

I guess SIPP didn't get 'pranked' this time.

Our little flotilla's heading out of Cromarty at 7 knots...

And the last time I looked at that Sumbrough webcam that 'TheCashFerret' linked us to, I actually saw a puffin! Surely one of the most amusing-looking (but cute) birds on Earth. Hope it's a good omen (I'm terribly superstitious).

jeffry,

"we should be around 2p now. After all, we are producing more than UKOG and look at their mcap"

Totally agree with you, but probably as confused as you are! In fact, sometimes I think there's something I'm missing, completely. Comparisons can be odious, and although I sometimes look at the UKOG BB here for entertainment (!) I've never invested in 'em. Because I don't believe in chucking money into a company just to keep their staff and operations going, and everyone on the payroll.

Whereas here, I don't reckon the two 'joint CEO's' are living beyond their means, and also the business-plan appears completely different. And sound.

Maybe it's just a question of patience.

Wellwell,

Yes. All of it. We don't know the details, nor do we really need to.

On the move again! That's what counts.

Rev,

"Ah well, back to my monk's cell to keep quiet and read about shipwatchers and oilmen!"

Although you're a 'man of the cloth', I somehow can't imagine you in a monk's cell!

But in fact, although the band themselves the 'Grateful Dead' on a very coincidental spur-of-the-moment occasion (because they had to, finding that there was already another band called the Warlocks), the 'grateful dead' concept is a spiritual one, going back to distant antiquity, in various cultures. A thing about old deceased ancestors' 'spirits' coming back from their 'new realm' to 'help' people still on this mortal plane who were good to them in the past...

Very closely related to the idea of 'kharma' in Hindu belief.

I ain't just a poker-playing oilman, you know....

SIPP,

"You're on the wrong board mate. Try TLW." (addressed to 'paolo111')

I get the reference completely. But I don't think paolo was writing on the wrong board by mistake. Because a certain boat (not the Aoka Mizu!) had nothing wrong with the 'pickup mechanism' other than it didn't seem to have a brake pedal! :-)))

See also past posts (also PM's) from yours truly regarding the AM's 'first trip' to the field a few weeks ago, and why I now firmly believe it was nothing more than a 'trial run', and the reasons why...

Paolo is scaremongering, though (as per previous post) I don't know if it's deliberate or not.

That 'other boat's problem' now isn't with the 'pickup mechanism'. It's more about deciding when or if they can shuck their buoy off and perform the required repairs, without losing tens of millions in revenue. Not an easy decision.

Absolutely nowt to do with Hurricane and the Aoka Mizu. Except, possibly, the reason for that 'first run', which (it should be noted) WASN'T followed by an RNS.

SiPP,

You've just gone done it again.